Project acronym 15CBOOKTRADE
Project The 15th-century Book Trade: An Evidence-based Assessment and Visualization of the Distribution, Sale, and Reception of Books in the Renaissance
Researcher (PI) Cristina Dondi
Host Institution (HI) THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Country United Kingdom
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH6, ERC-2013-CoG
Summary The idea that underpins this project is to use the material evidence from thousands of surviving 15th-c. books, as well as unique documentary evidence — the unpublished ledger of a Venetian bookseller in the 1480s which records the sale of 25,000 printed books with their prices — to address four fundamental questions relating to the introduction of printing in the West which have so far eluded scholarship, partly because of lack of evidence, partly because of the lack of effective tools to deal with existing evidence. The book trade differs from other trades operating in the medieval and early modern periods in that the goods traded survive in considerable numbers. Not only do they survive, but many of them bear stratified evidence of their history in the form of marks of ownership, prices, manuscript annotations, binding and decoration styles. A British Academy pilot project conceived by the PI produced a now internationally-used database which gathers together this kind of evidence for thousands of surviving 15th-c. printed books. For the first time, this makes it possible to track the circulation of books, their trade routes and later collecting, across Europe and the USA, and throughout the centuries. The objectives of this project are to examine (1) the distribution and trade-routes, national and international, of 15th-c. printed books, along with the identity of the buyers and users (private, institutional, religious, lay, female, male, and by profession) and their reading practices; (2) the books' contemporary market value; (3) the transmission and dissemination of the texts they contain, their survival and their loss (rebalancing potentially skewed scholarship); and (4) the circulation and re-use of the illustrations they contain. Finally, the project will experiment with the application of scientific visualization techniques to represent, geographically and chronologically, the movement of 15th-c. printed books and of the texts they contain.
Summary
The idea that underpins this project is to use the material evidence from thousands of surviving 15th-c. books, as well as unique documentary evidence — the unpublished ledger of a Venetian bookseller in the 1480s which records the sale of 25,000 printed books with their prices — to address four fundamental questions relating to the introduction of printing in the West which have so far eluded scholarship, partly because of lack of evidence, partly because of the lack of effective tools to deal with existing evidence. The book trade differs from other trades operating in the medieval and early modern periods in that the goods traded survive in considerable numbers. Not only do they survive, but many of them bear stratified evidence of their history in the form of marks of ownership, prices, manuscript annotations, binding and decoration styles. A British Academy pilot project conceived by the PI produced a now internationally-used database which gathers together this kind of evidence for thousands of surviving 15th-c. printed books. For the first time, this makes it possible to track the circulation of books, their trade routes and later collecting, across Europe and the USA, and throughout the centuries. The objectives of this project are to examine (1) the distribution and trade-routes, national and international, of 15th-c. printed books, along with the identity of the buyers and users (private, institutional, religious, lay, female, male, and by profession) and their reading practices; (2) the books' contemporary market value; (3) the transmission and dissemination of the texts they contain, their survival and their loss (rebalancing potentially skewed scholarship); and (4) the circulation and re-use of the illustrations they contain. Finally, the project will experiment with the application of scientific visualization techniques to represent, geographically and chronologically, the movement of 15th-c. printed books and of the texts they contain.
Max ERC Funding
1 999 172 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-04-01, End date: 2019-03-31
Project acronym 19TH-CENTURY_EUCLID
Project Nineteenth-Century Euclid: Geometry and the Literary Imagination from Wordsworth to Wells
Researcher (PI) Alice Jenkins
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW
Country United Kingdom
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH4, ERC-2007-StG
Summary This radically interdisciplinary project aims to bring a substantially new field of research – literature and mathematics studies – to prominence as a tool for investigating the culture of nineteenth-century Britain. It will result in three kinds of outcome: a monograph, two interdisciplinary and international colloquia, and a collection of essays. The project focuses on Euclidean geometry as a key element of nineteenth-century literary and scientific culture, showing that it was part of the shared knowledge flowing through elite and popular Romantic and Victorian writing, and figuring notably in the work of very many of the century’s best-known writers. Despite its traditional cultural prestige and educational centrality, geometry has been almost wholly neglected by literary history. This project shows how literature and mathematics studies can draw a new map of nineteenth-century British culture, revitalising our understanding of the Romantic and Victorian imagination through its writing about geometry.
Summary
This radically interdisciplinary project aims to bring a substantially new field of research – literature and mathematics studies – to prominence as a tool for investigating the culture of nineteenth-century Britain. It will result in three kinds of outcome: a monograph, two interdisciplinary and international colloquia, and a collection of essays. The project focuses on Euclidean geometry as a key element of nineteenth-century literary and scientific culture, showing that it was part of the shared knowledge flowing through elite and popular Romantic and Victorian writing, and figuring notably in the work of very many of the century’s best-known writers. Despite its traditional cultural prestige and educational centrality, geometry has been almost wholly neglected by literary history. This project shows how literature and mathematics studies can draw a new map of nineteenth-century British culture, revitalising our understanding of the Romantic and Victorian imagination through its writing about geometry.
Max ERC Funding
323 118 €
Duration
Start date: 2009-01-01, End date: 2011-10-31
Project acronym 2D4D
Project Disruptive Digitalization for Decarbonization
Researcher (PI) Elena Verdolini
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI BRESCIA
Country Italy
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH2, ERC-2019-STG
Summary By 2040, all major sectors of the European economy will be deeply digitalized. By then, the EU aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60% with respect to 1990 levels. Digitalization will affect decarbonization efforts because of its impacts on energy demand, employment, competitiveness, trade patterns and its distributional, behavioural and ethical implications. Yet, the policy debates around these two transformations are largely disjoint.
The aim of the 2D4D project is ensure that the digital revolution acts as an enabler – and not as a barrier – for decarbonization. The project quantifies the decarbonization implications of three disruptive digitalization technologies in hard-to-decarbonize sectors: (1) Additive Manufacturing in industry, (2) Mobility-as-a-Service in transportation, and (3) Artificial Intelligence in buildings.
The first objective of 2D4D is to generate a one-of-a-kind data collection to investigate the technical and socio-economic dynamics of these technologies, and how they may affect decarbonization narratives and scenarios. This will be achieved through several data collection methods, including desk research, surveys and expert elicitations.
The second objective of 2D4D is to include digitalization dynamics in decarbonization narratives and pathways. On the one hand, this entails enhancing decarbonization narratives (specifically, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways) to describe digitalization dynamics. On the other hand, it requires improving the representation of sector-specific digitalization dynamics in Integrated Assessment Models, one of the main tools available to generate decarbonization pathways.
The third objective of 2D4D is to identify no-regret, robust policy portfolios. These will be designed to ensure that digitalization unfolds in an inclusive, climate-beneficial way, and that decarbonization policies capitalize on digital technologies to support the energy transition.
Summary
By 2040, all major sectors of the European economy will be deeply digitalized. By then, the EU aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60% with respect to 1990 levels. Digitalization will affect decarbonization efforts because of its impacts on energy demand, employment, competitiveness, trade patterns and its distributional, behavioural and ethical implications. Yet, the policy debates around these two transformations are largely disjoint.
The aim of the 2D4D project is ensure that the digital revolution acts as an enabler – and not as a barrier – for decarbonization. The project quantifies the decarbonization implications of three disruptive digitalization technologies in hard-to-decarbonize sectors: (1) Additive Manufacturing in industry, (2) Mobility-as-a-Service in transportation, and (3) Artificial Intelligence in buildings.
The first objective of 2D4D is to generate a one-of-a-kind data collection to investigate the technical and socio-economic dynamics of these technologies, and how they may affect decarbonization narratives and scenarios. This will be achieved through several data collection methods, including desk research, surveys and expert elicitations.
The second objective of 2D4D is to include digitalization dynamics in decarbonization narratives and pathways. On the one hand, this entails enhancing decarbonization narratives (specifically, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways) to describe digitalization dynamics. On the other hand, it requires improving the representation of sector-specific digitalization dynamics in Integrated Assessment Models, one of the main tools available to generate decarbonization pathways.
The third objective of 2D4D is to identify no-regret, robust policy portfolios. These will be designed to ensure that digitalization unfolds in an inclusive, climate-beneficial way, and that decarbonization policies capitalize on digital technologies to support the energy transition.
Max ERC Funding
1 498 375 €
Duration
Start date: 2020-10-01, End date: 2025-09-30
Project acronym 3D-In-Macro
Project Inequality in 3D – measurement and implications for macroeconomic theory
Researcher (PI) Andreas Fagereng
Host Institution (HI) STIFTELSEN HANDELSHOYSKOLEN BI
Country Norway
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2019-STG
Summary This project will contribute toward a better understanding of inequality and its macroeconomic implications. We will study inequality and its dynamics along three dimensions: Consumption, Income and Wealth, “3D Inequality.” With novel microdata we can measure the entirety of the economy down to the single household along the 3 dimensions.
In macroeconomics, much theoretical progress has been made in understanding when distributions matter for aggregates. Newer heterogeneous agent models deliver strikingly different implications for monetary and fiscal policies than what the traditional representative agent models do, and also allow us to study the distributional implications of different policies across households. In principle, this class of models can incorporate the potentially rich interactions between inequality and the macroeconomy: on the one hand, inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates; on the other hand, macroeconomic shocks and policies affect inequality. However, absent precise micro-level facts it is difficult to establish which of the potential mechanisms highlighted by these models are the most important in reality.
Our empirical efforts will be disciplined by these recent developments in modelling macroeconomic phenomena with microeconomic heterogeneity. Our overarching motivation is to quantify the type of micro heterogeneity that matters for macroeconomic theory and thereby inform the development of current and future macroeconomic models. The novel insights we aim to provide could lead to substantial improvements in both fiscal and monetary policy tools. Furthermore, a better understanding of the forces behind growing inequality will inform the current debate on this issue and provide important lessons to policy makers who see economic inequality as a problem in itself.
Summary
This project will contribute toward a better understanding of inequality and its macroeconomic implications. We will study inequality and its dynamics along three dimensions: Consumption, Income and Wealth, “3D Inequality.” With novel microdata we can measure the entirety of the economy down to the single household along the 3 dimensions.
In macroeconomics, much theoretical progress has been made in understanding when distributions matter for aggregates. Newer heterogeneous agent models deliver strikingly different implications for monetary and fiscal policies than what the traditional representative agent models do, and also allow us to study the distributional implications of different policies across households. In principle, this class of models can incorporate the potentially rich interactions between inequality and the macroeconomy: on the one hand, inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates; on the other hand, macroeconomic shocks and policies affect inequality. However, absent precise micro-level facts it is difficult to establish which of the potential mechanisms highlighted by these models are the most important in reality.
Our empirical efforts will be disciplined by these recent developments in modelling macroeconomic phenomena with microeconomic heterogeneity. Our overarching motivation is to quantify the type of micro heterogeneity that matters for macroeconomic theory and thereby inform the development of current and future macroeconomic models. The novel insights we aim to provide could lead to substantial improvements in both fiscal and monetary policy tools. Furthermore, a better understanding of the forces behind growing inequality will inform the current debate on this issue and provide important lessons to policy makers who see economic inequality as a problem in itself.
Max ERC Funding
1 376 875 €
Duration
Start date: 2020-05-01, End date: 2025-04-30
Project acronym 5COFM
Project Five Centuries of Marriages
Researcher (PI) Anna Cabre
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSIDAD AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA
Country Spain
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH6, ERC-2010-AdG_20100407
Summary This long-term research project is based on the data-mining of the Llibres d'Esposalles conserved at the Archives of the Barcelona Cathedral, an extraordinary data source comprising 244 books of marriage licenses records. It covers about 550.000 unions from over 250 parishes of the Diocese between 1451 and 1905. Its impeccable conservation is a miracle in a region where parish archives have undergone massive destruction. The books include data on the tax posed on each couple depending on their social class, on an eight-tiered scale. These data allow for research on multiple aspects of demographic research, especially on the very long run, such as: population estimates, marriage dynamics, cycles, and indirect estimations for fertility, migration and survival, as well as socio-economic studies related to social homogamy, social mobility, and transmission of social and occupational position. Being continuous over five centuries, the source constitutes a unique instrument to study the dynamics of population distribution, the expansion of the city of Barcelona and the constitution of its metropolitan area, as well as the chronology and the geography in the constitution of new social classes.
To this end, a digital library and a database, the Barcelona Historical Marriages Database (BHiMaD), are to be created and completed. An ERC-AG will help doing so while undertaking the research analysis of the database in parallel.
The research team, at the U. Autònoma de Barcelona, involves researchers from the Center for Demo-graphic Studies and the Computer Vision Center experts in historical databases and computer-aided recognition of ancient manuscripts. 5CofM will serve the preservation of the original “Llibres d’Esposalles” and unlock the full potential embedded in the collection.
Summary
This long-term research project is based on the data-mining of the Llibres d'Esposalles conserved at the Archives of the Barcelona Cathedral, an extraordinary data source comprising 244 books of marriage licenses records. It covers about 550.000 unions from over 250 parishes of the Diocese between 1451 and 1905. Its impeccable conservation is a miracle in a region where parish archives have undergone massive destruction. The books include data on the tax posed on each couple depending on their social class, on an eight-tiered scale. These data allow for research on multiple aspects of demographic research, especially on the very long run, such as: population estimates, marriage dynamics, cycles, and indirect estimations for fertility, migration and survival, as well as socio-economic studies related to social homogamy, social mobility, and transmission of social and occupational position. Being continuous over five centuries, the source constitutes a unique instrument to study the dynamics of population distribution, the expansion of the city of Barcelona and the constitution of its metropolitan area, as well as the chronology and the geography in the constitution of new social classes.
To this end, a digital library and a database, the Barcelona Historical Marriages Database (BHiMaD), are to be created and completed. An ERC-AG will help doing so while undertaking the research analysis of the database in parallel.
The research team, at the U. Autònoma de Barcelona, involves researchers from the Center for Demo-graphic Studies and the Computer Vision Center experts in historical databases and computer-aided recognition of ancient manuscripts. 5CofM will serve the preservation of the original “Llibres d’Esposalles” and unlock the full potential embedded in the collection.
Max ERC Funding
1 847 400 €
Duration
Start date: 2011-05-01, End date: 2016-04-30
Project acronym 9 SALT
Project Reassessing Ninth Century Philosophy. A Synchronic Approach to the Logical Traditions
Researcher (PI) Christophe Florian Erismann
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITAT WIEN
Country Austria
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH5, ERC-2014-CoG
Summary This project aims at a better understanding of the philosophical richness of ninth century thought using the unprecedented and highly innovative method of the synchronic approach. The hypothesis directing this synchronic approach is that studying together in parallel the four main philosophical traditions of the century – i.e. Latin, Greek, Syriac and Arabic – will bring results that the traditional enquiry limited to one tradition alone can never reach. This implies pioneering a new methodology to overcome the compartmentalization of research which prevails nowadays. Using this method is only possible because the four conditions of applicability – comparable intellectual environment, common text corpus, similar methodological perspective, commensurable problems – are fulfilled. The ninth century, a time of cultural renewal in the Carolingian, Byzantine and Abbasid empires, possesses the remarkable characteristic – which ensures commensurability – that the same texts, namely the writings of Aristotelian logic (mainly Porphyry’s Isagoge and Aristotle’s Categories) were read and commented upon in Latin, Greek, Syriac and Arabic alike.
Logic is fundamental to philosophical enquiry. The contested question is the human capacity to rationalise, analyse and describe the sensible reality, to understand the ontological structure of the world, and to define the types of entities which exist. The use of this unprecedented synchronic approach will allow us a deeper understanding of the positions, a clear identification of the a priori postulates of the philosophical debates, and a critical evaluation of the arguments used. It provides a unique opportunity to compare the different traditions and highlight the heritage which is common, to stress the specificities of each tradition when tackling philosophical issues and to discover the doctrinal results triggered by their mutual interactions, be they constructive (scholarly exchanges) or polemic (religious controversies).
Summary
This project aims at a better understanding of the philosophical richness of ninth century thought using the unprecedented and highly innovative method of the synchronic approach. The hypothesis directing this synchronic approach is that studying together in parallel the four main philosophical traditions of the century – i.e. Latin, Greek, Syriac and Arabic – will bring results that the traditional enquiry limited to one tradition alone can never reach. This implies pioneering a new methodology to overcome the compartmentalization of research which prevails nowadays. Using this method is only possible because the four conditions of applicability – comparable intellectual environment, common text corpus, similar methodological perspective, commensurable problems – are fulfilled. The ninth century, a time of cultural renewal in the Carolingian, Byzantine and Abbasid empires, possesses the remarkable characteristic – which ensures commensurability – that the same texts, namely the writings of Aristotelian logic (mainly Porphyry’s Isagoge and Aristotle’s Categories) were read and commented upon in Latin, Greek, Syriac and Arabic alike.
Logic is fundamental to philosophical enquiry. The contested question is the human capacity to rationalise, analyse and describe the sensible reality, to understand the ontological structure of the world, and to define the types of entities which exist. The use of this unprecedented synchronic approach will allow us a deeper understanding of the positions, a clear identification of the a priori postulates of the philosophical debates, and a critical evaluation of the arguments used. It provides a unique opportunity to compare the different traditions and highlight the heritage which is common, to stress the specificities of each tradition when tackling philosophical issues and to discover the doctrinal results triggered by their mutual interactions, be they constructive (scholarly exchanges) or polemic (religious controversies).
Max ERC Funding
1 998 566 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-09-01, End date: 2021-02-28
Project acronym AAREA
Project The Archaeology of Agricultural Resilience in Eastern Africa
Researcher (PI) Daryl Stump
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITY OF YORK
Country United Kingdom
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH6, ERC-2013-StG
Summary "The twin concepts of sustainability and conservation that are so pivotal within current debates regarding economic development and biodiversity protection both contain an inherent temporal dimension, since both refer to the need to balance short-term gains with long-term resource maintenance. Proponents of resilience theory and of development based on ‘indigenous knowledge’ have thus argued for the necessity of including archaeological, historical and palaeoenvironmental components within development project design. Indeed, some have argued that archaeology should lead these interdisciplinary projects on the grounds that it provides the necessary time depth and bridges the social and natural sciences. The project proposed here accepts this logic and endorses this renewed contemporary relevance of archaeological research. However, it also needs to be admitted that moving beyond critiques of the misuse of historical data presents significant hurdles. When presenting results outside the discipline, for example, archaeological projects tend to downplay the poor archaeological visibility of certain agricultural practices, and computer models designed to test sustainability struggle to adequately account for local cultural preferences. This field will therefore not progress unless there is a frank appraisal of archaeology’s strengths and weaknesses. This project will provide this assessment by employing a range of established and groundbreaking archaeological and modelling techniques to examine the development of two east Africa agricultural systems: one at the abandoned site of Engaruka in Tanzania, commonly seen as an example of resource mismanagement and ecological collapse; and another at the current agricultural landscape in Konso, Ethiopia, described by the UN FAO as one of a select few African “lessons from the past”. The project thus aims to assess the sustainability of these systems, but will also assess the role archaeology can play in such debates worldwide."
Summary
"The twin concepts of sustainability and conservation that are so pivotal within current debates regarding economic development and biodiversity protection both contain an inherent temporal dimension, since both refer to the need to balance short-term gains with long-term resource maintenance. Proponents of resilience theory and of development based on ‘indigenous knowledge’ have thus argued for the necessity of including archaeological, historical and palaeoenvironmental components within development project design. Indeed, some have argued that archaeology should lead these interdisciplinary projects on the grounds that it provides the necessary time depth and bridges the social and natural sciences. The project proposed here accepts this logic and endorses this renewed contemporary relevance of archaeological research. However, it also needs to be admitted that moving beyond critiques of the misuse of historical data presents significant hurdles. When presenting results outside the discipline, for example, archaeological projects tend to downplay the poor archaeological visibility of certain agricultural practices, and computer models designed to test sustainability struggle to adequately account for local cultural preferences. This field will therefore not progress unless there is a frank appraisal of archaeology’s strengths and weaknesses. This project will provide this assessment by employing a range of established and groundbreaking archaeological and modelling techniques to examine the development of two east Africa agricultural systems: one at the abandoned site of Engaruka in Tanzania, commonly seen as an example of resource mismanagement and ecological collapse; and another at the current agricultural landscape in Konso, Ethiopia, described by the UN FAO as one of a select few African “lessons from the past”. The project thus aims to assess the sustainability of these systems, but will also assess the role archaeology can play in such debates worldwide."
Max ERC Funding
1 196 701 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-02-01, End date: 2018-01-31
Project acronym ABACUS
Project Advancing Behavioral and Cognitive Understanding of Speech
Researcher (PI) Bart De Boer
Host Institution (HI) VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT BRUSSEL
Country Belgium
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH4, ERC-2011-StG_20101124
Summary I intend to investigate what cognitive mechanisms give us combinatorial speech. Combinatorial speech is the ability to make new words using pre-existing speech sounds. Humans are the only apes that can do this, yet we do not know how our brains do it, nor how exactly we differ from other apes. Using new experimental techniques to study human behavior and new computational techniques to model human cognition, I will find out how we deal with combinatorial speech.
The experimental part will study individual and cultural learning. Experimental cultural learning is a new technique that simulates cultural evolution in the laboratory. Two types of cultural learning will be used: iterated learning, which simulates language transfer across generations, and social coordination, which simulates emergence of norms in a language community. Using the two types of cultural learning together with individual learning experiments will help to zero in, from three angles, on how humans deal with combinatorial speech. In addition it will make a methodological contribution by comparing the strengths and weaknesses of the three methods.
The computer modeling part will formalize hypotheses about how our brains deal with combinatorial speech. Two models will be built: a high-level model that will establish the basic algorithms with which combinatorial speech is learned and reproduced, and a neural model that will establish in more detail how the algorithms are implemented in the brain. In addition, the models, through increasing understanding of how humans deal with speech, will help bridge the performance gap between human and computer speech recognition.
The project will advance science in four ways: it will provide insight into how our unique ability for using combinatorial speech works, it will tell us how this is implemented in the brain, it will extend the novel methodology of experimental cultural learning and it will create new computer models for dealing with human speech.
Summary
I intend to investigate what cognitive mechanisms give us combinatorial speech. Combinatorial speech is the ability to make new words using pre-existing speech sounds. Humans are the only apes that can do this, yet we do not know how our brains do it, nor how exactly we differ from other apes. Using new experimental techniques to study human behavior and new computational techniques to model human cognition, I will find out how we deal with combinatorial speech.
The experimental part will study individual and cultural learning. Experimental cultural learning is a new technique that simulates cultural evolution in the laboratory. Two types of cultural learning will be used: iterated learning, which simulates language transfer across generations, and social coordination, which simulates emergence of norms in a language community. Using the two types of cultural learning together with individual learning experiments will help to zero in, from three angles, on how humans deal with combinatorial speech. In addition it will make a methodological contribution by comparing the strengths and weaknesses of the three methods.
The computer modeling part will formalize hypotheses about how our brains deal with combinatorial speech. Two models will be built: a high-level model that will establish the basic algorithms with which combinatorial speech is learned and reproduced, and a neural model that will establish in more detail how the algorithms are implemented in the brain. In addition, the models, through increasing understanding of how humans deal with speech, will help bridge the performance gap between human and computer speech recognition.
The project will advance science in four ways: it will provide insight into how our unique ability for using combinatorial speech works, it will tell us how this is implemented in the brain, it will extend the novel methodology of experimental cultural learning and it will create new computer models for dealing with human speech.
Max ERC Funding
1 276 620 €
Duration
Start date: 2012-02-01, End date: 2017-01-31
Project acronym ABEP
Project Asset Bubbles and Economic Policy
Researcher (PI) Jaume Ventura Fontanet
Host Institution (HI) Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
Country Spain
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH1, ERC-2009-AdG
Summary Advanced capitalist economies experience large and persistent movements in asset prices that are difficult to justify with economic fundamentals. The internet bubble of the 1990s and the real state market bubble of the 2000s are two recent examples. The predominant view is that these bubbles are a market failure, and are caused by some form of individual irrationality on the part of market participants. This project is based instead on the view that market participants are individually rational, although this does not preclude sometimes collectively sub-optimal outcomes. Bubbles are thus not a source of market failure by themselves but instead arise as a result of a pre-existing market failure, namely, the existence of pockets of dynamically inefficient investments. Under some conditions, bubbles partly solve this problem, increasing market efficiency and welfare. It is also possible however that bubbles do not solve the underlying problem and, in addition, create negative side-effects. The main objective of this project is to develop this view of asset bubbles, and produce an empirically-relevant macroeconomic framework that allows us to address the following questions: (i) What is the relationship between bubbles and financial market frictions? Special emphasis is given to how the globalization of financial markets and the development of new financial products affect the size and effects of bubbles. (ii) What is the relationship between bubbles, economic growth and unemployment? The theory suggests the presence of virtuous and vicious cycles, as economic growth creates the conditions for bubbles to pop up, while bubbles create incentives for economic growth to happen. (iii) What is the optimal policy to manage bubbles? We need to develop the tools that allow policy makers to sustain those bubbles that have positive effects and burst those that have negative effects.
Summary
Advanced capitalist economies experience large and persistent movements in asset prices that are difficult to justify with economic fundamentals. The internet bubble of the 1990s and the real state market bubble of the 2000s are two recent examples. The predominant view is that these bubbles are a market failure, and are caused by some form of individual irrationality on the part of market participants. This project is based instead on the view that market participants are individually rational, although this does not preclude sometimes collectively sub-optimal outcomes. Bubbles are thus not a source of market failure by themselves but instead arise as a result of a pre-existing market failure, namely, the existence of pockets of dynamically inefficient investments. Under some conditions, bubbles partly solve this problem, increasing market efficiency and welfare. It is also possible however that bubbles do not solve the underlying problem and, in addition, create negative side-effects. The main objective of this project is to develop this view of asset bubbles, and produce an empirically-relevant macroeconomic framework that allows us to address the following questions: (i) What is the relationship between bubbles and financial market frictions? Special emphasis is given to how the globalization of financial markets and the development of new financial products affect the size and effects of bubbles. (ii) What is the relationship between bubbles, economic growth and unemployment? The theory suggests the presence of virtuous and vicious cycles, as economic growth creates the conditions for bubbles to pop up, while bubbles create incentives for economic growth to happen. (iii) What is the optimal policy to manage bubbles? We need to develop the tools that allow policy makers to sustain those bubbles that have positive effects and burst those that have negative effects.
Max ERC Funding
1 000 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2015-03-31
Project acronym ABRSEIST
Project Antibiotic Resistance: Socio-Economic Determinants and the Role of Information and Salience in Treatment Choice
Researcher (PI) Hannes ULLRICH
Host Institution (HI) DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FUR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG DIW (INSTITUT FUR KONJUNKTURFORSCHUNG) EV
Country Germany
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2018-STG
Summary Antibiotics have contributed to a tremendous increase in human well-being, saving many millions of lives. However, antibiotics become obsolete the more they are used as selection pressure promotes the development of resistant bacteria. The World Health Organization has proclaimed antibiotic resistance as a major global threat to public health. Today, 700,000 deaths per year are due to untreatable infections. To win the battle against antibiotic resistance, new policies affecting the supply and demand of existing and new drugs must be designed. I propose new research to identify and evaluate feasible and effective demand-side policy interventions targeting the relevant decision makers: physicians and patients. ABRSEIST will make use of a broad econometric toolset to identify mechanisms linking antibiotic resistance and consumption exploiting a unique combination of physician-patient-level antibiotic resistance, treatment, and socio-economic data. Using machine learning methods adapted for causal inference, theory-driven structural econometric analysis, and randomization in the field it will provide rigorous evidence on effective intervention designs. This research will improve our understanding of how prescribing, resistance, and the effect of antibiotic use on resistance, are distributed in the general population which has important implications for the design of targeted interventions. It will then estimate a structural model of general practitioners’ acquisition and use of information under uncertainty about resistance in prescription choice, allowing counterfactual analysis of information-improving policies such as mandatory diagnostic testing. The large-scale and structural econometric analyses allow flexible identification of physician heterogeneity, which ABRSEIST will exploit to design and evaluate targeted, randomized information nudges in the field. The result will be improved rational use and a toolset applicable in contexts of antibiotic prescribing.
Summary
Antibiotics have contributed to a tremendous increase in human well-being, saving many millions of lives. However, antibiotics become obsolete the more they are used as selection pressure promotes the development of resistant bacteria. The World Health Organization has proclaimed antibiotic resistance as a major global threat to public health. Today, 700,000 deaths per year are due to untreatable infections. To win the battle against antibiotic resistance, new policies affecting the supply and demand of existing and new drugs must be designed. I propose new research to identify and evaluate feasible and effective demand-side policy interventions targeting the relevant decision makers: physicians and patients. ABRSEIST will make use of a broad econometric toolset to identify mechanisms linking antibiotic resistance and consumption exploiting a unique combination of physician-patient-level antibiotic resistance, treatment, and socio-economic data. Using machine learning methods adapted for causal inference, theory-driven structural econometric analysis, and randomization in the field it will provide rigorous evidence on effective intervention designs. This research will improve our understanding of how prescribing, resistance, and the effect of antibiotic use on resistance, are distributed in the general population which has important implications for the design of targeted interventions. It will then estimate a structural model of general practitioners’ acquisition and use of information under uncertainty about resistance in prescription choice, allowing counterfactual analysis of information-improving policies such as mandatory diagnostic testing. The large-scale and structural econometric analyses allow flexible identification of physician heterogeneity, which ABRSEIST will exploit to design and evaluate targeted, randomized information nudges in the field. The result will be improved rational use and a toolset applicable in contexts of antibiotic prescribing.
Max ERC Funding
1 498 920 €
Duration
Start date: 2019-01-01, End date: 2023-12-31
