Project acronym CHRONOS
Project A geochemical clock to measure timescales of volcanic eruptions
Researcher (PI) Diego Perugini
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PERUGIA
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), PE10, ERC-2013-CoG
Summary "The eruption of volcanoes appears one of the most unpredictable phenomena on Earth. Yet the situation is rapidly changing. Quantification of the eruptive record constrains what is possible in a given volcanic system. Timing is the hardest part to quantify.
The main process triggering an eruption is the refilling of a sub-volcanic magma chamber by a new magma coming from depth. This process results in magma mixing and provokes a time-dependent diffusion of chemical elements. Understanding the time elapsed from mixing to eruption is fundamental to discerning pre-eruptive behaviour of volcanoes to mitigate the huge impact of volcanic eruptions on society and the environment.
The CHRONOS project proposes a new method that will cut the Gordian knot of the presently intractable problem of volcanic eruption timing using a surgical approach integrating textural, geochemical and experimental data on magma mixing. I will use the compositional heterogeneity frozen in time in the rocks the same way a broken clock at a crime scene is used to determine the time of the incident. CHRONOS will aim to:
1) be the first study to reproduce magma mixing, by performing unique experiments constrained by natural data and using natural melts, under controlled rheological and fluid-dynamics conditions;
2) obtain unprecedented high-quality data on the time dependence of chemical exchanges during magma mixing;
3) derive empirical relationships linking the extent of chemical exchanges and the mixing timescales;
4) determine timescales of volcanic eruptions combining natural and experimental data.
CHRONOS will open a new window on the physico-chemical processes occurring in the days preceding volcanic eruptions providing unprecedented information to build the first inventory of eruption timescales for planet Earth. If these timescales can be linked with geophysical signals occurring prior to eruptions, this inventory will have an immense value, enabling precise prediction of volcanic eruptions."
Summary
"The eruption of volcanoes appears one of the most unpredictable phenomena on Earth. Yet the situation is rapidly changing. Quantification of the eruptive record constrains what is possible in a given volcanic system. Timing is the hardest part to quantify.
The main process triggering an eruption is the refilling of a sub-volcanic magma chamber by a new magma coming from depth. This process results in magma mixing and provokes a time-dependent diffusion of chemical elements. Understanding the time elapsed from mixing to eruption is fundamental to discerning pre-eruptive behaviour of volcanoes to mitigate the huge impact of volcanic eruptions on society and the environment.
The CHRONOS project proposes a new method that will cut the Gordian knot of the presently intractable problem of volcanic eruption timing using a surgical approach integrating textural, geochemical and experimental data on magma mixing. I will use the compositional heterogeneity frozen in time in the rocks the same way a broken clock at a crime scene is used to determine the time of the incident. CHRONOS will aim to:
1) be the first study to reproduce magma mixing, by performing unique experiments constrained by natural data and using natural melts, under controlled rheological and fluid-dynamics conditions;
2) obtain unprecedented high-quality data on the time dependence of chemical exchanges during magma mixing;
3) derive empirical relationships linking the extent of chemical exchanges and the mixing timescales;
4) determine timescales of volcanic eruptions combining natural and experimental data.
CHRONOS will open a new window on the physico-chemical processes occurring in the days preceding volcanic eruptions providing unprecedented information to build the first inventory of eruption timescales for planet Earth. If these timescales can be linked with geophysical signals occurring prior to eruptions, this inventory will have an immense value, enabling precise prediction of volcanic eruptions."
Max ERC Funding
1 993 813 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-05-01, End date: 2019-04-30
Project acronym COBHAM
Project The role of consumer behavior and heterogeneity in the integrated assessment of energy and climate policies
Researcher (PI) Massimo Tavoni
Host Institution (HI) POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2013-StG
Summary The objective of this project is to quantify the role of consumers’ behaviour on the design and assessment of policies aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and conservation and at promoting climate change mitigation. The project brings together different disciplines –namely energy policy, environmental and ecological economics, behavioral public finance, experimental economics, and technology policy- in an integrated fashion. COBHAM is designed to go beyond the standard analysis of energy and climate policies in the presence of environmental externalities, by accounting for the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences, the role of social interactions, and the presence of behavioral tendencies and biases. The project seeks to: i) carry out innovative research in the theoretical understanding of the interplay between behavioral tendencies and environmental externalities; ii) generate new empirical data and research on individual preferences by means of original surveys and controlled experiments; iii) enhance integrated assessment models (IAMs) of economy, energy and climate with an advanced representation of consumers’ behavior. In doing so, the project will be able to provide a richer characterization of energy demand and of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to better estimate consumers’ responsiveness to energy and climate policies, and to provide input to the design of new policy instruments aimed at influencing energy and environmental sustainable behavior. COBHAM is of high public policy relevance given Europe’s legislation on energy efficiency and CO2 emissions, and can provide important insights also outside the sphere of energy and climate policymaking.
Summary
The objective of this project is to quantify the role of consumers’ behaviour on the design and assessment of policies aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and conservation and at promoting climate change mitigation. The project brings together different disciplines –namely energy policy, environmental and ecological economics, behavioral public finance, experimental economics, and technology policy- in an integrated fashion. COBHAM is designed to go beyond the standard analysis of energy and climate policies in the presence of environmental externalities, by accounting for the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences, the role of social interactions, and the presence of behavioral tendencies and biases. The project seeks to: i) carry out innovative research in the theoretical understanding of the interplay between behavioral tendencies and environmental externalities; ii) generate new empirical data and research on individual preferences by means of original surveys and controlled experiments; iii) enhance integrated assessment models (IAMs) of economy, energy and climate with an advanced representation of consumers’ behavior. In doing so, the project will be able to provide a richer characterization of energy demand and of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to better estimate consumers’ responsiveness to energy and climate policies, and to provide input to the design of new policy instruments aimed at influencing energy and environmental sustainable behavior. COBHAM is of high public policy relevance given Europe’s legislation on energy efficiency and CO2 emissions, and can provide important insights also outside the sphere of energy and climate policymaking.
Max ERC Funding
1 451 840 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-08-01, End date: 2019-07-31
Project acronym DyNET
Project Dynamical river NETworks: climatic controls and biogeochemical function
Researcher (PI) Gianluca BOTTER
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), PE10, ERC-2017-COG
Summary Despite the ubiquity of expansion and retraction dynamics of flowing streams, the large majority of biogeochemical and hydrological studies conceive river networks as static elements of the landscape, and a coherent framework to quantify nature and extent of drainage network dynamics is lacking. The implications of this phenomenon extend far beyond hydrology and involve key ecological and biogeochemical function of riparian corridors. The proposed research project will move beyond the traditional paradigm of static river networks by unravelling, for the first time, physical causes and biogeochemical consequences of stream dynamics. In particular, the project will undertake the following overarching scientific questions: 1) what are the climatic and geomorphic controls on the expansion/contraction of river networks? 2) what is the length of temporary streams and what is their impact on catchment-scale biogeochemical processes and stream water quality across scales? These challenging issues will be addressed by developing a novel theoretical framework complemented by extensive field observations within four representative sites along a climatic gradient in the EU. Field measurements will include long-term weekly mapping of the active drainage network and daily hydro-chemical data across scales. The experimental dataset will be used to develop and inform a set of innovative modelling tools, including an analytical framework for the description of spatially explicit hydrologic dynamics driven by stochastic rainfall and a modular hydro-chemical model based on the concept of water age, able to account for the variable connectivity among soil, groundwater and channels as induced by stream network dynamics. The project will open new avenues to quantify freshwater carbon emissions - crucially dependent on the extent of ephemeral streams - and it will provide a robust basis to identify temporary rivers and maintain their biogeochemical function in times of global change.
Summary
Despite the ubiquity of expansion and retraction dynamics of flowing streams, the large majority of biogeochemical and hydrological studies conceive river networks as static elements of the landscape, and a coherent framework to quantify nature and extent of drainage network dynamics is lacking. The implications of this phenomenon extend far beyond hydrology and involve key ecological and biogeochemical function of riparian corridors. The proposed research project will move beyond the traditional paradigm of static river networks by unravelling, for the first time, physical causes and biogeochemical consequences of stream dynamics. In particular, the project will undertake the following overarching scientific questions: 1) what are the climatic and geomorphic controls on the expansion/contraction of river networks? 2) what is the length of temporary streams and what is their impact on catchment-scale biogeochemical processes and stream water quality across scales? These challenging issues will be addressed by developing a novel theoretical framework complemented by extensive field observations within four representative sites along a climatic gradient in the EU. Field measurements will include long-term weekly mapping of the active drainage network and daily hydro-chemical data across scales. The experimental dataset will be used to develop and inform a set of innovative modelling tools, including an analytical framework for the description of spatially explicit hydrologic dynamics driven by stochastic rainfall and a modular hydro-chemical model based on the concept of water age, able to account for the variable connectivity among soil, groundwater and channels as induced by stream network dynamics. The project will open new avenues to quantify freshwater carbon emissions - crucially dependent on the extent of ephemeral streams - and it will provide a robust basis to identify temporary rivers and maintain their biogeochemical function in times of global change.
Max ERC Funding
1 999 758 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-05-01, End date: 2023-04-30
Project acronym ESEARCH
Project Direct Empirical Evidence on Labor Market Search Theories
Researcher (PI) Thomas LE BARBANCHON
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2017-STG
Summary Our project proposes to provide new empirical evidence on the search strategies of both job seekers and of recruiters in the labor market. This evidence will enhance our understanding of the information asymmetries at the root of search frictions.
We will leverage the extraordinary opportunities offered by online job boards, which record search activities in details. We will match for the first time these data with administrative data from unemployment-employment registers. This will enable us to jointly observe search activity and core economic outcomes (wage, job duration) on very large samples.
We will design randomized controlled trials, where we recommend new matches to both job seekers and recruiters. This will test for the extent of geographical and skill mismatch in the labor market. We will further test the assumptions of directed search models by displaying to job seekers the real-time length of the queue in front of vacancies. Finally, we will use new item-to-item collaborative filtering algorithms (amazon-type recommendations) to quantify the social value of the private information that job seekers gather when they screen vacancies.
Using quasi-experimental research designs, we will provide the first precise estimates of the direct and cross effects of search subsidies - unemployment insurance and reduction in vacancy advertising costs - on the search strategies of both sides of the market. We will then test the empirical relevance of behavioral mechanisms, such as reference-dependence or over-optimism.
We expect our direct empirical evidence on search strategies to trigger new developments in search theories. Our results will guide policy-makers who design job boards and search subsidies to both recruiters and job seekers. We hope that the social impact of our research will be to reduce frictional unemployment and to increase the productivity of workers through a reduction of mismatch in the labor market.
Summary
Our project proposes to provide new empirical evidence on the search strategies of both job seekers and of recruiters in the labor market. This evidence will enhance our understanding of the information asymmetries at the root of search frictions.
We will leverage the extraordinary opportunities offered by online job boards, which record search activities in details. We will match for the first time these data with administrative data from unemployment-employment registers. This will enable us to jointly observe search activity and core economic outcomes (wage, job duration) on very large samples.
We will design randomized controlled trials, where we recommend new matches to both job seekers and recruiters. This will test for the extent of geographical and skill mismatch in the labor market. We will further test the assumptions of directed search models by displaying to job seekers the real-time length of the queue in front of vacancies. Finally, we will use new item-to-item collaborative filtering algorithms (amazon-type recommendations) to quantify the social value of the private information that job seekers gather when they screen vacancies.
Using quasi-experimental research designs, we will provide the first precise estimates of the direct and cross effects of search subsidies - unemployment insurance and reduction in vacancy advertising costs - on the search strategies of both sides of the market. We will then test the empirical relevance of behavioral mechanisms, such as reference-dependence or over-optimism.
We expect our direct empirical evidence on search strategies to trigger new developments in search theories. Our results will guide policy-makers who design job boards and search subsidies to both recruiters and job seekers. We hope that the social impact of our research will be to reduce frictional unemployment and to increase the productivity of workers through a reduction of mismatch in the labor market.
Max ERC Funding
1 250 250 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-04-01, End date: 2023-03-31
Project acronym InfoAsymMarkets
Project Decentralized Markets with Informational Asymmetries
Researcher (PI) Donato (Dino) Gerardi
Host Institution (HI) COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO - CENTRO DI RICERCA E ALTA FORMAZIONE
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH1, ERC-2013-CoG
Summary The goal of this proposal is to advance the theory of decentralized trade with informational asymmetries and limited commitment.
In most trading situations, some of the parties possess superior information about critical aspects of the environment. For example, in financial markets, professional investors are better informed about the quality of the assets that they sell to individuals. Similarly, consumers typically have private information about their willingness to pay for goods and services. It is well understood that informational asymmetries are responsible for one of the most serious forms of market inefficiency. Because of its strong assumptions in term of commitment, the standard theory of mechanism design is unsuitable for the study of many actual trading institutions. On the other hand, the focus of most of the existing literature on trading with limited commitment is the case in which the parties can trade at most once. While satisfactory in situations like the sale of a house, this assumption leaves out many important economic environments where the parties trade repeatedly over time. However, repeated transactions are natural both when the objects of trade are non-durable (e.g., services such as phone or internet plans) and when they are durable but divisible (e.g., financial assets). A crucial difference between these cases and those analyzed in the literature is the fact that the information revealed in early transactions may affect the outcome of future negotiations.
We plan to provide a systematic game-theoretic analysis of decentralized markets with repeated trading and informational asymmetries. Our investigation will shed light on the properties of various commonly used trading mechanisms and will inform us about possible remedies to make them more efficient. This will contribute substantially to the design of adequate institutions and to the regulation of markets.
Summary
The goal of this proposal is to advance the theory of decentralized trade with informational asymmetries and limited commitment.
In most trading situations, some of the parties possess superior information about critical aspects of the environment. For example, in financial markets, professional investors are better informed about the quality of the assets that they sell to individuals. Similarly, consumers typically have private information about their willingness to pay for goods and services. It is well understood that informational asymmetries are responsible for one of the most serious forms of market inefficiency. Because of its strong assumptions in term of commitment, the standard theory of mechanism design is unsuitable for the study of many actual trading institutions. On the other hand, the focus of most of the existing literature on trading with limited commitment is the case in which the parties can trade at most once. While satisfactory in situations like the sale of a house, this assumption leaves out many important economic environments where the parties trade repeatedly over time. However, repeated transactions are natural both when the objects of trade are non-durable (e.g., services such as phone or internet plans) and when they are durable but divisible (e.g., financial assets). A crucial difference between these cases and those analyzed in the literature is the fact that the information revealed in early transactions may affect the outcome of future negotiations.
We plan to provide a systematic game-theoretic analysis of decentralized markets with repeated trading and informational asymmetries. Our investigation will shed light on the properties of various commonly used trading mechanisms and will inform us about possible remedies to make them more efficient. This will contribute substantially to the design of adequate institutions and to the regulation of markets.
Max ERC Funding
827 410 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-03-01, End date: 2018-02-28
Project acronym LIFETimeS
Project Light-Induced Function: from Excitation to Signal through Time and Space
Researcher (PI) Benedetta MENNUCCI
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA DI PISA
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), PE4, ERC-2017-ADG
Summary Organisms of all domains of life are capable of sensing, using and responding to light. The molecular mechanisms used are diverse, but most commonly the starting event is an electronic excitation localized on a chromophoric unit bound to a protein matrix. The initial excitation rapidly “travels” across space to be converted in other forms of energy and finally used to complete the biological function. The whole machinery spans many different space and time scales: from the ultrafast electronic process localized at the subnanoscale of the chromophoric units, through conformational processes which involve large parts of the protein and are completed within micro- to milli-seconds, up to the activation of new protein-protein interactions requiring seconds or more. Theoretically addressing this cascade of processes calls for new models and computational strategies able to reproduce the dynamics across multiple space and time scales. Such a goal is formidably challenging as the interactions and the dynamics involved at each scale follow completely different laws, from those of the quantum world to those of classical particles. Only a strategy based upon the integration of quantum chemistry, classical atomistic and coarse-grained models up to continuum approximations, can achieve the required completeness of description. This project aims at developing such integration and transforming it into high-performance computing codes. The completeness and accuracy reached by the simulations will represent a breakthrough in our understanding of the mechanisms, which govern the light-driven bioactivity. Through this novel point of observation of the action from the “inside”, it will be possible not only to reveal the ‘design principles’ used by Nature but also to give a “practical” instrument to test “in silico” new techniques for the control of cellular processes by manipulating protein functions through light.
Summary
Organisms of all domains of life are capable of sensing, using and responding to light. The molecular mechanisms used are diverse, but most commonly the starting event is an electronic excitation localized on a chromophoric unit bound to a protein matrix. The initial excitation rapidly “travels” across space to be converted in other forms of energy and finally used to complete the biological function. The whole machinery spans many different space and time scales: from the ultrafast electronic process localized at the subnanoscale of the chromophoric units, through conformational processes which involve large parts of the protein and are completed within micro- to milli-seconds, up to the activation of new protein-protein interactions requiring seconds or more. Theoretically addressing this cascade of processes calls for new models and computational strategies able to reproduce the dynamics across multiple space and time scales. Such a goal is formidably challenging as the interactions and the dynamics involved at each scale follow completely different laws, from those of the quantum world to those of classical particles. Only a strategy based upon the integration of quantum chemistry, classical atomistic and coarse-grained models up to continuum approximations, can achieve the required completeness of description. This project aims at developing such integration and transforming it into high-performance computing codes. The completeness and accuracy reached by the simulations will represent a breakthrough in our understanding of the mechanisms, which govern the light-driven bioactivity. Through this novel point of observation of the action from the “inside”, it will be possible not only to reveal the ‘design principles’ used by Nature but also to give a “practical” instrument to test “in silico” new techniques for the control of cellular processes by manipulating protein functions through light.
Max ERC Funding
2 400 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-09-01, End date: 2023-08-31
Project acronym MIMAT
Project From Micro to Macro: Aggregate Implications of Firm-Level Heterogeneity in International Trade
Researcher (PI) Gianmarco OTTAVIANO
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH1, ERC-2017-ADG
Summary What determines the patterns of international trade and the associated welfare effects? Can individual
incentives to trade diverge from societal objectives? Should governments intervene to promote or restrict
international transactions? Questions like these have recently gained new salience, in Europe and elsewhere,
due to renewed protectionist pressures and resurgent nationalistic tendencies arising from diffuse
disenchantment with globalization.
The aim of the research project is to highlighting key dimensions along which the answers to these questions
obtained from conventional trade models with homogenous firms should be revisited in the light of
permanent pervasive firm heterogeneity. In particular, the project will pursue four specific objectives through
four integrated work packages providing new insights on how firm heterogeneity affects: (1) the ability of
markets to deliver allocative efficiency; (2) The design of optimal multilateral trade policies; (3) The
comparative advantages of countries; (4) The capabilities of a country as an exporter.
The first work package will investigate whether the allocative inefficiency (“misallocation”) determined by
firm heterogeneity in the presence of pricing distortions is quantitatively relevant for a country’s aggregate
economic performance, and whether economic integration reduces or exacerbates such misallocation. The
second work package will develop the theoretical implications of firm heterogeneity for trade policy, with
special emphasis on the cooperative design of optimal multilateral trade agreements aimed at maximizing the
joint welfare of all trade partners. The third work package will study how country, sector and firm
characteristics interact to determine countries’ responses to trade liberalization. The fourth work package
will investigate the distinct role of firm heterogeneity in determining a country’s ability to export through the
shape of the productivity distribution of its producers.
Summary
What determines the patterns of international trade and the associated welfare effects? Can individual
incentives to trade diverge from societal objectives? Should governments intervene to promote or restrict
international transactions? Questions like these have recently gained new salience, in Europe and elsewhere,
due to renewed protectionist pressures and resurgent nationalistic tendencies arising from diffuse
disenchantment with globalization.
The aim of the research project is to highlighting key dimensions along which the answers to these questions
obtained from conventional trade models with homogenous firms should be revisited in the light of
permanent pervasive firm heterogeneity. In particular, the project will pursue four specific objectives through
four integrated work packages providing new insights on how firm heterogeneity affects: (1) the ability of
markets to deliver allocative efficiency; (2) The design of optimal multilateral trade policies; (3) The
comparative advantages of countries; (4) The capabilities of a country as an exporter.
The first work package will investigate whether the allocative inefficiency (“misallocation”) determined by
firm heterogeneity in the presence of pricing distortions is quantitatively relevant for a country’s aggregate
economic performance, and whether economic integration reduces or exacerbates such misallocation. The
second work package will develop the theoretical implications of firm heterogeneity for trade policy, with
special emphasis on the cooperative design of optimal multilateral trade agreements aimed at maximizing the
joint welfare of all trade partners. The third work package will study how country, sector and firm
characteristics interact to determine countries’ responses to trade liberalization. The fourth work package
will investigate the distinct role of firm heterogeneity in determining a country’s ability to export through the
shape of the productivity distribution of its producers.
Max ERC Funding
1 335 694 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-10-01, End date: 2023-09-30
Project acronym MONPMOD
Project New Directions for Monetary Policy Analysis
Researcher (PI) Pierpaolo Benigno
Host Institution (HI) LUISS LIBERA UNIVERSITA INTERNAZIONALE DEGLI STUDI SOCIALI GUIDO CARLI
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH1, ERC-2013-CoG
Summary "The research under this proposal aims at a better understanding of monetary policy in light of the recent events following the financial crisis. There are three main objectives. The first is to study monetary policy in models where financial securities have different liquidity properties which could vary over time and be subject to sudden changes. The new framework will address the mechanisms at the root of the financial crisis and its propagation to real economic activity and at the same time study the appropriate policy responses and the forthcoming exit strategies. The second objective aims at extending the analyses of optimal monetary policy to abnormal times where deleveraging or liquidity shocks bring the nominal interest rate to the zero lower bound and more unconventional policies are needed. The third objective is directed to study open-economy models where the liquidity properties of financial securities affect the conduct of monetary policy, as in a currency area in which sovereign debt of some countries loses its safe-asset status or in small open economies challenged by imperfect credibility in the domestic fiat-money system."
Summary
"The research under this proposal aims at a better understanding of monetary policy in light of the recent events following the financial crisis. There are three main objectives. The first is to study monetary policy in models where financial securities have different liquidity properties which could vary over time and be subject to sudden changes. The new framework will address the mechanisms at the root of the financial crisis and its propagation to real economic activity and at the same time study the appropriate policy responses and the forthcoming exit strategies. The second objective aims at extending the analyses of optimal monetary policy to abnormal times where deleveraging or liquidity shocks bring the nominal interest rate to the zero lower bound and more unconventional policies are needed. The third objective is directed to study open-economy models where the liquidity properties of financial securities affect the conduct of monetary policy, as in a currency area in which sovereign debt of some countries loses its safe-asset status or in small open economies challenged by imperfect credibility in the domestic fiat-money system."
Max ERC Funding
837 680 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-11-01, End date: 2019-10-31
Project acronym NEWTON
Project NEw Windown inTO Earth's iNterior
Researcher (PI) Manuele FACCENDA
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), PE10, ERC-2017-STG
Summary Comprehensive seismic programs undertaken in the past few years, combined with emerging new numerical technologies now provide the potential, for the first time, to explore in detail the Earth’s interior. However, such an integrated approach is currently not contemplated, which produces physical inconsistencies among the different studies that strongly bias our understanding of the Earth’s internal structure and dynamics. Of particular concern are nowadays apparent thermo-petrological anomalies in tomographic images that are generated by the unaccounted-for anisotropic structure of the mantle and that are commonly confused with real thermo-petrological features. Given the diffuse mantle seismic anisotropy, apparent thermo-petrological anomalies contaminate most tomographic models against which tectono-magmatic models are validated, representing a critical issue for the present-day window.
Here we aim to develop a new methodology that combines state-of-the-art geodynamic modelling and seismological methods. The new methodology will allow building robust anisotropic tomographic models that will exploit anisotropy predictions from petrological-thermomechanical modelling to decompose velocity anomalies into isotropic (true thermo-petrological) and anisotropic (mechanically-induced) components.
As a major outcome, we expect to provide a new, geodynamically and seismologically constrained perspective of the current deep structure and tectono-magmatic evolution of different tectonic settings. This new methodology will be applied to the Mediterranean and the Cascadia subduction zone where, despite the abundant seismological observations, large uncertainties about the subsurface structure and tectono-magmatic evolution persist.
Furthermore, we plan to develop a new inversion technique for seismic anisotropy, and release an open source, sophisticated code for mantle fabric modelling, which will allow coupling geodynamic and seismological modelling in other tectonic settings.
Summary
Comprehensive seismic programs undertaken in the past few years, combined with emerging new numerical technologies now provide the potential, for the first time, to explore in detail the Earth’s interior. However, such an integrated approach is currently not contemplated, which produces physical inconsistencies among the different studies that strongly bias our understanding of the Earth’s internal structure and dynamics. Of particular concern are nowadays apparent thermo-petrological anomalies in tomographic images that are generated by the unaccounted-for anisotropic structure of the mantle and that are commonly confused with real thermo-petrological features. Given the diffuse mantle seismic anisotropy, apparent thermo-petrological anomalies contaminate most tomographic models against which tectono-magmatic models are validated, representing a critical issue for the present-day window.
Here we aim to develop a new methodology that combines state-of-the-art geodynamic modelling and seismological methods. The new methodology will allow building robust anisotropic tomographic models that will exploit anisotropy predictions from petrological-thermomechanical modelling to decompose velocity anomalies into isotropic (true thermo-petrological) and anisotropic (mechanically-induced) components.
As a major outcome, we expect to provide a new, geodynamically and seismologically constrained perspective of the current deep structure and tectono-magmatic evolution of different tectonic settings. This new methodology will be applied to the Mediterranean and the Cascadia subduction zone where, despite the abundant seismological observations, large uncertainties about the subsurface structure and tectono-magmatic evolution persist.
Furthermore, we plan to develop a new inversion technique for seismic anisotropy, and release an open source, sophisticated code for mantle fabric modelling, which will allow coupling geodynamic and seismological modelling in other tectonic settings.
Max ERC Funding
1 466 030 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-03-01, End date: 2023-02-28
Project acronym RISICO
Project RISk and uncertainty in developing and Implementing Climate change pOlicies
Researcher (PI) Valentina Bosetti
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2013-StG
Summary "Uncertainty is pervasive in all aspects of climate change. Although this is beyond dispute, the vast majority of research assessing climate ignores uncertainty, in large part because of the technical complexities involved. The present project aims at advancing substantially the way we conceptualize, model and frame the climate change policy making process, focusing on the central role of uncertainty.
The first step is that of applying state of the art techniques from operation research (stochastic dynamic and approximate dynamic programming) to the realm of integrated assessment models (the conventional tool used to perform climate change analysis). These techniques enable us to capture a wide range of stochastic phenomena in the decision process. However, to really move forward the research edge one needs to shift the focus on to the way we, as individuals, perceive these uncertain phenomena.
Indeed, the literature on decision making under uncertainty spans way beyond economics, statistics and operations research: Notably psychology and philosophy. These disciplines have had a major role in extending what we know about the process of decision making under uncertainty, and this project aims at reconciling this strand of literature with that on climate change policy design and assessment. The three main research questions are:
1) What are key risk and uncertainty perception issues and “biases” when we face climate change and under what instances should they be included in normative analyses of climate change?
2) How can we map these “alternative” representations of uncertainty and risk perception into integrated assessment models and how will these affect the normative predicaments of these models ?
3) How can we communicate and frame uncertainty itself, as well as results of stochastic analyses, in a way that help us reducing those biases that have no normative role, but arise from our limited attentional and information processing capacity?"
Summary
"Uncertainty is pervasive in all aspects of climate change. Although this is beyond dispute, the vast majority of research assessing climate ignores uncertainty, in large part because of the technical complexities involved. The present project aims at advancing substantially the way we conceptualize, model and frame the climate change policy making process, focusing on the central role of uncertainty.
The first step is that of applying state of the art techniques from operation research (stochastic dynamic and approximate dynamic programming) to the realm of integrated assessment models (the conventional tool used to perform climate change analysis). These techniques enable us to capture a wide range of stochastic phenomena in the decision process. However, to really move forward the research edge one needs to shift the focus on to the way we, as individuals, perceive these uncertain phenomena.
Indeed, the literature on decision making under uncertainty spans way beyond economics, statistics and operations research: Notably psychology and philosophy. These disciplines have had a major role in extending what we know about the process of decision making under uncertainty, and this project aims at reconciling this strand of literature with that on climate change policy design and assessment. The three main research questions are:
1) What are key risk and uncertainty perception issues and “biases” when we face climate change and under what instances should they be included in normative analyses of climate change?
2) How can we map these “alternative” representations of uncertainty and risk perception into integrated assessment models and how will these affect the normative predicaments of these models ?
3) How can we communicate and frame uncertainty itself, as well as results of stochastic analyses, in a way that help us reducing those biases that have no normative role, but arise from our limited attentional and information processing capacity?"
Max ERC Funding
1 146 002 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-06-01, End date: 2019-05-31
