Project acronym 5COFM
Project Five Centuries of Marriages
Researcher (PI) Anna Cabré
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH6, ERC-2010-AdG_20100407
Summary This long-term research project is based on the data-mining of the Llibres d'Esposalles conserved at the Archives of the Barcelona Cathedral, an extraordinary data source comprising 244 books of marriage licenses records. It covers about 550.000 unions from over 250 parishes of the Diocese between 1451 and 1905. Its impeccable conservation is a miracle in a region where parish archives have undergone massive destruction. The books include data on the tax posed on each couple depending on their social class, on an eight-tiered scale. These data allow for research on multiple aspects of demographic research, especially on the very long run, such as: population estimates, marriage dynamics, cycles, and indirect estimations for fertility, migration and survival, as well as socio-economic studies related to social homogamy, social mobility, and transmission of social and occupational position. Being continuous over five centuries, the source constitutes a unique instrument to study the dynamics of population distribution, the expansion of the city of Barcelona and the constitution of its metropolitan area, as well as the chronology and the geography in the constitution of new social classes.
To this end, a digital library and a database, the Barcelona Historical Marriages Database (BHiMaD), are to be created and completed. An ERC-AG will help doing so while undertaking the research analysis of the database in parallel.
The research team, at the U. Autònoma de Barcelona, involves researchers from the Center for Demo-graphic Studies and the Computer Vision Center experts in historical databases and computer-aided recognition of ancient manuscripts. 5CofM will serve the preservation of the original “Llibres d’Esposalles” and unlock the full potential embedded in the collection.
Summary
This long-term research project is based on the data-mining of the Llibres d'Esposalles conserved at the Archives of the Barcelona Cathedral, an extraordinary data source comprising 244 books of marriage licenses records. It covers about 550.000 unions from over 250 parishes of the Diocese between 1451 and 1905. Its impeccable conservation is a miracle in a region where parish archives have undergone massive destruction. The books include data on the tax posed on each couple depending on their social class, on an eight-tiered scale. These data allow for research on multiple aspects of demographic research, especially on the very long run, such as: population estimates, marriage dynamics, cycles, and indirect estimations for fertility, migration and survival, as well as socio-economic studies related to social homogamy, social mobility, and transmission of social and occupational position. Being continuous over five centuries, the source constitutes a unique instrument to study the dynamics of population distribution, the expansion of the city of Barcelona and the constitution of its metropolitan area, as well as the chronology and the geography in the constitution of new social classes.
To this end, a digital library and a database, the Barcelona Historical Marriages Database (BHiMaD), are to be created and completed. An ERC-AG will help doing so while undertaking the research analysis of the database in parallel.
The research team, at the U. Autònoma de Barcelona, involves researchers from the Center for Demo-graphic Studies and the Computer Vision Center experts in historical databases and computer-aided recognition of ancient manuscripts. 5CofM will serve the preservation of the original “Llibres d’Esposalles” and unlock the full potential embedded in the collection.
Max ERC Funding
1 847 400 €
Duration
Start date: 2011-05-01, End date: 2016-04-30
Project acronym ABEP
Project Asset Bubbles and Economic Policy
Researcher (PI) Jaume Ventura Fontanet
Host Institution (HI) Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH1, ERC-2009-AdG
Summary Advanced capitalist economies experience large and persistent movements in asset prices that are difficult to justify with economic fundamentals. The internet bubble of the 1990s and the real state market bubble of the 2000s are two recent examples. The predominant view is that these bubbles are a market failure, and are caused by some form of individual irrationality on the part of market participants. This project is based instead on the view that market participants are individually rational, although this does not preclude sometimes collectively sub-optimal outcomes. Bubbles are thus not a source of market failure by themselves but instead arise as a result of a pre-existing market failure, namely, the existence of pockets of dynamically inefficient investments. Under some conditions, bubbles partly solve this problem, increasing market efficiency and welfare. It is also possible however that bubbles do not solve the underlying problem and, in addition, create negative side-effects. The main objective of this project is to develop this view of asset bubbles, and produce an empirically-relevant macroeconomic framework that allows us to address the following questions: (i) What is the relationship between bubbles and financial market frictions? Special emphasis is given to how the globalization of financial markets and the development of new financial products affect the size and effects of bubbles. (ii) What is the relationship between bubbles, economic growth and unemployment? The theory suggests the presence of virtuous and vicious cycles, as economic growth creates the conditions for bubbles to pop up, while bubbles create incentives for economic growth to happen. (iii) What is the optimal policy to manage bubbles? We need to develop the tools that allow policy makers to sustain those bubbles that have positive effects and burst those that have negative effects.
Summary
Advanced capitalist economies experience large and persistent movements in asset prices that are difficult to justify with economic fundamentals. The internet bubble of the 1990s and the real state market bubble of the 2000s are two recent examples. The predominant view is that these bubbles are a market failure, and are caused by some form of individual irrationality on the part of market participants. This project is based instead on the view that market participants are individually rational, although this does not preclude sometimes collectively sub-optimal outcomes. Bubbles are thus not a source of market failure by themselves but instead arise as a result of a pre-existing market failure, namely, the existence of pockets of dynamically inefficient investments. Under some conditions, bubbles partly solve this problem, increasing market efficiency and welfare. It is also possible however that bubbles do not solve the underlying problem and, in addition, create negative side-effects. The main objective of this project is to develop this view of asset bubbles, and produce an empirically-relevant macroeconomic framework that allows us to address the following questions: (i) What is the relationship between bubbles and financial market frictions? Special emphasis is given to how the globalization of financial markets and the development of new financial products affect the size and effects of bubbles. (ii) What is the relationship between bubbles, economic growth and unemployment? The theory suggests the presence of virtuous and vicious cycles, as economic growth creates the conditions for bubbles to pop up, while bubbles create incentives for economic growth to happen. (iii) What is the optimal policy to manage bubbles? We need to develop the tools that allow policy makers to sustain those bubbles that have positive effects and burst those that have negative effects.
Max ERC Funding
1 000 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2015-03-31
Project acronym ACQDIV
Project Acquisition processes in maximally diverse languages: Min(d)ing the ambient language
Researcher (PI) Sabine Erika Stoll
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITAT ZURICH
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH4, ERC-2013-CoG
Summary "Children learn any language that they grow up with, adapting to any of the ca. 7000 languages of the world, no matter how divergent or complex their structures are. What cognitive processes make this extreme flexibility possible? This is one of the most burning questions in cognitive science and the ACQDIV project aims at answering it by testing and refining the following leading hypothesis: Language acquisition is flexible and adaptive to any kind of language because it relies on a small set of universal cognitive processes that variably target different structures at different times during acquisition in every language. The project aims at establishing the precise set of processes and at determining the conditions of variation across maximally diverse languages. This project focuses on three processes: (i) distributional learning, (ii) generalization-based learning and (iii) interaction-based learning. To investigate these processes I will work with a sample of five clusters of languages including longitudinal data of two languages each. The clusters were determined by a clustering algorithm seeking the structurally most divergent languages in a typological database. The languages are: Cluster 1: Slavey and Cree, Cluster 2: Indonesian and Yucatec, Cluster 3: Inuktitut and Chintang, Cluster 4: Sesotho and Russian, Cluster 5: Japanese and Turkish. For all languages, corpora are available, except for Slavey where fieldwork is planned. The leading hypothesis will be tested against the acquisition of aspect and negation in each language of the sample and also against the two structures in each language that are most salient and challenging in them (e. g. complex morphology in Chintang). The acquisition processes also depend on statistical patterns in the input children receive. I will examine these patterns across the sample with respect to repetitiveness effects, applying data-mining methods and systematically comparing child-directed and child-surrounding speech."
Summary
"Children learn any language that they grow up with, adapting to any of the ca. 7000 languages of the world, no matter how divergent or complex their structures are. What cognitive processes make this extreme flexibility possible? This is one of the most burning questions in cognitive science and the ACQDIV project aims at answering it by testing and refining the following leading hypothesis: Language acquisition is flexible and adaptive to any kind of language because it relies on a small set of universal cognitive processes that variably target different structures at different times during acquisition in every language. The project aims at establishing the precise set of processes and at determining the conditions of variation across maximally diverse languages. This project focuses on three processes: (i) distributional learning, (ii) generalization-based learning and (iii) interaction-based learning. To investigate these processes I will work with a sample of five clusters of languages including longitudinal data of two languages each. The clusters were determined by a clustering algorithm seeking the structurally most divergent languages in a typological database. The languages are: Cluster 1: Slavey and Cree, Cluster 2: Indonesian and Yucatec, Cluster 3: Inuktitut and Chintang, Cluster 4: Sesotho and Russian, Cluster 5: Japanese and Turkish. For all languages, corpora are available, except for Slavey where fieldwork is planned. The leading hypothesis will be tested against the acquisition of aspect and negation in each language of the sample and also against the two structures in each language that are most salient and challenging in them (e. g. complex morphology in Chintang). The acquisition processes also depend on statistical patterns in the input children receive. I will examine these patterns across the sample with respect to repetitiveness effects, applying data-mining methods and systematically comparing child-directed and child-surrounding speech."
Max ERC Funding
1 998 438 €
Duration
Start date: 2014-09-01, End date: 2019-08-31
Project acronym ActionContraThreat
Project Action selection under threat: the complex control of human defense
Researcher (PI) Dominik BACH
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITAT ZURICH
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH4, ERC-2018-COG
Summary Run away, sidestep, duck-and-cover, watch: when under threat, humans immediately choreograph a large repertoire of defensive actions. Understanding action-selection under threat is important for anybody wanting to explain why anxiety disorders imply some of these behaviours in harmless situations. Current concepts of human defensive behaviour are largely derived from rodent research and focus on a small number of broad, cross-species, action tendencies. This is likely to underestimate the complexity of the underlying action-selection mechanisms. This research programme will take decisive steps to understand these psychological mechanisms and elucidate their neural implementation.
To elicit threat-related action in the laboratory, I will use virtual reality computer games with full body motion, and track actions with motion-capture technology. Based on a cognitive-computational framework, I will systematically characterise the space of actions under threat, investigate the psychological mechanisms by which actions are selected in different scenarios, and describe them with computational algorithms that allow quantitative predictions. To independently verify their neural implementation, I will use wearable magnetoencephalography (MEG) in freely moving subjects.
This proposal fills a lacuna between defence system concepts based on rodent research, emotion psychology, and clinical accounts of anxiety disorders. By combining a stringent experimental approach with the formalism of cognitive-computational psychology, it furnishes a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms of action-selection under threat, and how these are distinct from more general-purpose action-selection systems. Beyond its immediate scope, the proposal has a potential to lead to a better understanding of anxiety disorders, and to pave the way towards improved diagnostics and therapies.
Summary
Run away, sidestep, duck-and-cover, watch: when under threat, humans immediately choreograph a large repertoire of defensive actions. Understanding action-selection under threat is important for anybody wanting to explain why anxiety disorders imply some of these behaviours in harmless situations. Current concepts of human defensive behaviour are largely derived from rodent research and focus on a small number of broad, cross-species, action tendencies. This is likely to underestimate the complexity of the underlying action-selection mechanisms. This research programme will take decisive steps to understand these psychological mechanisms and elucidate their neural implementation.
To elicit threat-related action in the laboratory, I will use virtual reality computer games with full body motion, and track actions with motion-capture technology. Based on a cognitive-computational framework, I will systematically characterise the space of actions under threat, investigate the psychological mechanisms by which actions are selected in different scenarios, and describe them with computational algorithms that allow quantitative predictions. To independently verify their neural implementation, I will use wearable magnetoencephalography (MEG) in freely moving subjects.
This proposal fills a lacuna between defence system concepts based on rodent research, emotion psychology, and clinical accounts of anxiety disorders. By combining a stringent experimental approach with the formalism of cognitive-computational psychology, it furnishes a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms of action-selection under threat, and how these are distinct from more general-purpose action-selection systems. Beyond its immediate scope, the proposal has a potential to lead to a better understanding of anxiety disorders, and to pave the way towards improved diagnostics and therapies.
Max ERC Funding
1 998 750 €
Duration
Start date: 2019-10-01, End date: 2024-09-30
Project acronym Aftermath
Project THE AFTERMATH OF THE EAST ASIAN WAR OF 1592-1598.
Researcher (PI) Rebekah CLEMENTS
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH6, ERC-2017-STG
Summary Aftermath seeks to understand the legacy of the East Asian War of 1592-1598. This conflict involved over 500,000 combatants from Japan, China, and Korea; up to 100,000 Korean civilians were abducted to Japan. The war caused momentous demographic upheaval and widespread destruction, but also had long-lasting cultural impact as a result of the removal to Japan of Korean technology and skilled labourers. The conflict and its aftermath bear striking parallels to events in East Asia during World War 2, and memories of the 16th century war remain deeply resonant in the region. However, the war and its immediate aftermath are also significant because they occurred at the juncture of periods often characterized as “medieval” and “early modern” in the East Asian case. What were the implications for the social, economic, and cultural contours of early modern East Asia? What can this conflict tell us about war “aftermath” across historical periods and about such periodization itself? There is little Western scholarship on the war and few studies in any language cross linguistic, disciplinary, and national boundaries to achieve a regional perspective that reflects the interconnected history of East Asia. Aftermath will radically alter our understanding of the region’s history by providing the first analysis of the state of East Asia as a result of the war. The focus will be on the period up to the middle of the 17th century, but not precluding ongoing effects. The team, with expertise covering Japan, Korea, and China, will investigate three themes: the movement of people and demographic change, the impact on the natural environment, and technological diffusion. The project will be the first large scale investigation to use Japanese, Korean, and Chinese sources to understand the war’s aftermath. It will broaden understandings of the early modern world, and push the boundaries of war legacy studies by exploring the meanings of “aftermath” in the early modern East Asian context.
Summary
Aftermath seeks to understand the legacy of the East Asian War of 1592-1598. This conflict involved over 500,000 combatants from Japan, China, and Korea; up to 100,000 Korean civilians were abducted to Japan. The war caused momentous demographic upheaval and widespread destruction, but also had long-lasting cultural impact as a result of the removal to Japan of Korean technology and skilled labourers. The conflict and its aftermath bear striking parallels to events in East Asia during World War 2, and memories of the 16th century war remain deeply resonant in the region. However, the war and its immediate aftermath are also significant because they occurred at the juncture of periods often characterized as “medieval” and “early modern” in the East Asian case. What were the implications for the social, economic, and cultural contours of early modern East Asia? What can this conflict tell us about war “aftermath” across historical periods and about such periodization itself? There is little Western scholarship on the war and few studies in any language cross linguistic, disciplinary, and national boundaries to achieve a regional perspective that reflects the interconnected history of East Asia. Aftermath will radically alter our understanding of the region’s history by providing the first analysis of the state of East Asia as a result of the war. The focus will be on the period up to the middle of the 17th century, but not precluding ongoing effects. The team, with expertise covering Japan, Korea, and China, will investigate three themes: the movement of people and demographic change, the impact on the natural environment, and technological diffusion. The project will be the first large scale investigation to use Japanese, Korean, and Chinese sources to understand the war’s aftermath. It will broaden understandings of the early modern world, and push the boundaries of war legacy studies by exploring the meanings of “aftermath” in the early modern East Asian context.
Max ERC Funding
1 444 980 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-11-01, End date: 2023-10-31
Project acronym AGRIWESTMED
Project Origins and spread of agriculture in the south-western Mediterranean region
Researcher (PI) Maria Leonor Peña Chocarro
Host Institution (HI) AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DEINVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH6, ERC-2008-AdG
Summary This project focuses on one of the most fascinating events of the long history of the human species: the origins and spread of agriculture. Research over the past 40 years has provided an invaluable dataset on crop domestication and the spread of agriculture into Europe. However, despite the enormous advances in research there are important areas that remain almost unexplored, some of immense interest. This is the case of the western Mediterranean region from where our knowledge is still limited (Iberian Peninsula) or almost inexistent (northern Morocco). The last few years have witnessed a considerable increase in archaeobotany and the effort of a group of Spanish researchers working together in different aspects of agriculture has started to produce the first results. My proposal will approach the study of the arrival of agriculture to the western Mediterranean by exploring different interrelated research areas. The project involves the
application of different techniques (analysis of charred plant remains, pollen and non-pollen microfossils, phytoliths, micro-wear analyses, isotopes, soil micromorphology, genetics, and ethnoarchaeology) which will help to define the emergence and spread of agriculture in the area, its likely place of origin, its main technological attributes as well as the range crop husbandry practices carried out. The interaction between the different approaches and the methodologies involved will allow achieving a greater understanding of the type of agriculture that characterized the first farming communities in the most south-western part of Europe.
Summary
This project focuses on one of the most fascinating events of the long history of the human species: the origins and spread of agriculture. Research over the past 40 years has provided an invaluable dataset on crop domestication and the spread of agriculture into Europe. However, despite the enormous advances in research there are important areas that remain almost unexplored, some of immense interest. This is the case of the western Mediterranean region from where our knowledge is still limited (Iberian Peninsula) or almost inexistent (northern Morocco). The last few years have witnessed a considerable increase in archaeobotany and the effort of a group of Spanish researchers working together in different aspects of agriculture has started to produce the first results. My proposal will approach the study of the arrival of agriculture to the western Mediterranean by exploring different interrelated research areas. The project involves the
application of different techniques (analysis of charred plant remains, pollen and non-pollen microfossils, phytoliths, micro-wear analyses, isotopes, soil micromorphology, genetics, and ethnoarchaeology) which will help to define the emergence and spread of agriculture in the area, its likely place of origin, its main technological attributes as well as the range crop husbandry practices carried out. The interaction between the different approaches and the methodologies involved will allow achieving a greater understanding of the type of agriculture that characterized the first farming communities in the most south-western part of Europe.
Max ERC Funding
1 545 169 €
Duration
Start date: 2009-04-01, End date: 2013-03-31
Project acronym AMORE
Project A distributional MOdel of Reference to Entities
Researcher (PI) Gemma BOLEDA TORRENT
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH4, ERC-2016-STG
Summary "When I asked my seven-year-old daughter ""Who is the boy in your class who was also new in school last year, like you?"", she instantly replied ""Daniel"", using the descriptive content in my utterance to identify an entity in the real world and refer to it. The ability to use language to refer to reality is crucial for humans, and yet it is very difficult to model. AMORE breaks new ground in Computational Linguistics, Linguistics, and Artificial Intelligence by developing a model of linguistic reference to entities implemented as a computational system that can learn its own representations from data.
This interdisciplinary project builds on two complementary semantic traditions: 1) Formal semantics, a symbolic approach that can delimit and track linguistic referents, but does not adequately match them with the descriptive content of linguistic expressions; 2) Distributional semantics, which can handle descriptive content but does not associate it to individuated referents. AMORE synthesizes the two approaches into a unified, scalable model of reference that operates with individuated referents and links them to referential expressions characterized by rich descriptive content. The model is a distributed (neural network) version of a formal semantic framework that is furthermore able to integrate perceptual (visual) and linguistic information about entities. We test it extensively in referential tasks that require matching noun phrases (“the Medicine student”, “the white cat”) with entity representations extracted from text and images.
AMORE advances our scientific understanding of language and its computational modeling, and contributes to the far-reaching debate between symbolic and distributed approaches to cognition with an integrative proposal. I am in a privileged position to carry out this integration, since I have contributed top research in both distributional and formal semantics.
"
Summary
"When I asked my seven-year-old daughter ""Who is the boy in your class who was also new in school last year, like you?"", she instantly replied ""Daniel"", using the descriptive content in my utterance to identify an entity in the real world and refer to it. The ability to use language to refer to reality is crucial for humans, and yet it is very difficult to model. AMORE breaks new ground in Computational Linguistics, Linguistics, and Artificial Intelligence by developing a model of linguistic reference to entities implemented as a computational system that can learn its own representations from data.
This interdisciplinary project builds on two complementary semantic traditions: 1) Formal semantics, a symbolic approach that can delimit and track linguistic referents, but does not adequately match them with the descriptive content of linguistic expressions; 2) Distributional semantics, which can handle descriptive content but does not associate it to individuated referents. AMORE synthesizes the two approaches into a unified, scalable model of reference that operates with individuated referents and links them to referential expressions characterized by rich descriptive content. The model is a distributed (neural network) version of a formal semantic framework that is furthermore able to integrate perceptual (visual) and linguistic information about entities. We test it extensively in referential tasks that require matching noun phrases (“the Medicine student”, “the white cat”) with entity representations extracted from text and images.
AMORE advances our scientific understanding of language and its computational modeling, and contributes to the far-reaching debate between symbolic and distributed approaches to cognition with an integrative proposal. I am in a privileged position to carry out this integration, since I have contributed top research in both distributional and formal semantics.
"
Max ERC Funding
1 499 805 €
Duration
Start date: 2017-02-01, End date: 2022-01-31
Project acronym APMPAL
Project Asset Prices and Macro Policy when Agents Learn
Researcher (PI) Albert Marcet Torrens
Host Institution (HI) FUNDACIÓ MARKETS, ORGANIZATIONS AND VOTES IN ECONOMICS
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH1, ERC-2012-ADG_20120411
Summary "A conventional assumption in dynamic models is that agents form their expectations in a very sophisticated manner. In particular, that they have Rational Expectations (RE). We develop some tools to relax this assumption while retaining fully optimal behaviour by agents. We study implications for asset pricing and macro policy.
We assume that agents have a consistent set of beliefs that is close, but not equal, to RE. Agents are ""Internally Rational"", that is, they behave rationally given their system of beliefs. Thus, it is conceptually a small deviation from RE. It provides microfoundations for models of adaptive learning, since the learning algorithm is determined by agents’ optimal behaviour. In previous work we have shown that this framework can match stock price and housing price fluctuations, and that policy implications are quite different.
In this project we intend to: i) develop further the foundations of internally rational (IR) learning, ii) apply this to explain observed asset price price behavior, such as stock prices, bond prices, inflation, commodity derivatives, and exchange rates, iii) extend the IR framework to the case when agents entertain various models, iv) optimal policy under IR learning and under private information when some hidden shocks are not revealed ex-post. Along the way we will address policy issues such as: effects of creating derivative markets, sovereign spread as a signal of sovereign default risk, tests of fiscal sustainability, fiscal policy when agents learn, monetary policy (more specifically, QE measures and interest rate policy), and the role of credibility in macro policy."
Summary
"A conventional assumption in dynamic models is that agents form their expectations in a very sophisticated manner. In particular, that they have Rational Expectations (RE). We develop some tools to relax this assumption while retaining fully optimal behaviour by agents. We study implications for asset pricing and macro policy.
We assume that agents have a consistent set of beliefs that is close, but not equal, to RE. Agents are ""Internally Rational"", that is, they behave rationally given their system of beliefs. Thus, it is conceptually a small deviation from RE. It provides microfoundations for models of adaptive learning, since the learning algorithm is determined by agents’ optimal behaviour. In previous work we have shown that this framework can match stock price and housing price fluctuations, and that policy implications are quite different.
In this project we intend to: i) develop further the foundations of internally rational (IR) learning, ii) apply this to explain observed asset price price behavior, such as stock prices, bond prices, inflation, commodity derivatives, and exchange rates, iii) extend the IR framework to the case when agents entertain various models, iv) optimal policy under IR learning and under private information when some hidden shocks are not revealed ex-post. Along the way we will address policy issues such as: effects of creating derivative markets, sovereign spread as a signal of sovereign default risk, tests of fiscal sustainability, fiscal policy when agents learn, monetary policy (more specifically, QE measures and interest rate policy), and the role of credibility in macro policy."
Max ERC Funding
1 970 260 €
Duration
Start date: 2013-06-01, End date: 2018-08-31
Project acronym APMPAL-HET
Project Asset Prices and Macro Policy when Agents Learn and are Heterogeneous
Researcher (PI) Albert MARCET TORRENS
Host Institution (HI) FUNDACIÓ MARKETS, ORGANIZATIONS AND VOTES IN ECONOMICS
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH1, ERC-2017-ADG
Summary Based on the APMPAL (ERC) project we continue to develop the frameworks of internal rationality (IR) and optimal signal extraction (OSE). Under IR investors/consumers behave rationally given their subjective beliefs about prices, these beliefs are compatible with data. Under OSE the government has partial information, it knows how policy influences observed variables and signal extraction.
We develop further the foundations of IR and OSE with an emphasis on heterogeneous agents. We study sovereign bond crisis and heterogeneity of beliefs in asset pricing models under IR, using survey data on expectations. Under IR the assets’ stochastic discount factor depends on the agents’ decision function and beliefs; this modifies some key asset pricing results. We extend OSE to models with state variables, forward-looking constraints and heterogeneity.
Under IR agents’ prior beliefs determine the effects of a policy reform. If the government does not observe prior beliefs it has partial information, thus OSE should be used to analyse policy reforms under IR.
If IR heterogeneous workers forecast their productivity either from their own wage or their neighbours’ in a network, low current wages discourage search and human capital accumulation, leading to low productivity. This can explain low development of a country or social exclusion of a group. Worker subsidies redistribute wealth and can increase productivity if they “teach” agents to exit a low-wage state.
We build DSGE models under IR for prediction and policy analysis. We develop time-series tools for predicting macro and asset market variables, using information available to the analyst, and we introduce non-linearities and survey expectations using insights from models under IR.
We study how IR and OSE change the view on macro policy issues such as tax smoothing, debt management, Taylor rule, level of inflation, fiscal/monetary policy coordination, factor taxation or redistribution.
Summary
Based on the APMPAL (ERC) project we continue to develop the frameworks of internal rationality (IR) and optimal signal extraction (OSE). Under IR investors/consumers behave rationally given their subjective beliefs about prices, these beliefs are compatible with data. Under OSE the government has partial information, it knows how policy influences observed variables and signal extraction.
We develop further the foundations of IR and OSE with an emphasis on heterogeneous agents. We study sovereign bond crisis and heterogeneity of beliefs in asset pricing models under IR, using survey data on expectations. Under IR the assets’ stochastic discount factor depends on the agents’ decision function and beliefs; this modifies some key asset pricing results. We extend OSE to models with state variables, forward-looking constraints and heterogeneity.
Under IR agents’ prior beliefs determine the effects of a policy reform. If the government does not observe prior beliefs it has partial information, thus OSE should be used to analyse policy reforms under IR.
If IR heterogeneous workers forecast their productivity either from their own wage or their neighbours’ in a network, low current wages discourage search and human capital accumulation, leading to low productivity. This can explain low development of a country or social exclusion of a group. Worker subsidies redistribute wealth and can increase productivity if they “teach” agents to exit a low-wage state.
We build DSGE models under IR for prediction and policy analysis. We develop time-series tools for predicting macro and asset market variables, using information available to the analyst, and we introduce non-linearities and survey expectations using insights from models under IR.
We study how IR and OSE change the view on macro policy issues such as tax smoothing, debt management, Taylor rule, level of inflation, fiscal/monetary policy coordination, factor taxation or redistribution.
Max ERC Funding
1 524 144 €
Duration
Start date: 2018-09-01, End date: 2023-08-31
Project acronym ArtEmpire
Project An ARTery of EMPIRE. Conquest, Commerce, Crisis, Culture and the Panamanian Junction (1513-1671)
Researcher (PI) Bethany Aram Worzella
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSIDAD PABLO DE OLAVIDE
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH6, ERC-2014-CoG
Summary European incursions onto the narrow isthmian pass that divided and connected the Atlantic and Pacific oceans made it a strategic node of the Spanish Empire and a crucial site for early modern globalization. On the front lines of the convergence of four continents, Old Panama offers an unusual opportunity for examining the diverse, often asymmetrical impacts of cultural and commercial contacts. The role of Italian, Portuguese, British, Dutch, and French interests in the area, as well as an influx of African slaves and Asian merchandise, have left a unique material legacy that requires an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to its varied sources. Bones, teeth and artifacts on this artery of Empire offer the possibility of new insights into the cultural and biological impact of early globalization. They also invite an interdisciplinary approach to different groups’ tactics for survival, including possible dietary changes, and the pursuit of profit. Such strategies may have led the diverse peoples inhabiting this junction, from indigenous allies to African and Asian bandits to European corsairs, to develop and to favor local production and Pacific trade networks at the expense of commerce with the metropolis.
This project applies historical, archaeological and archaeometric methodologies to evidence of encounters between peoples and goods from Europe, America, Africa and Asia that took place on the Isthmus of Panama during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Forging an interdisciplinary approach to early globalization, it challenges both Euro-centric and Hispano-phobic interpretations of the impact of the conquest of America, traditionally seen as a demographic catastrophe that reached its nadir in the so-called seventeenth-century crisis. Rather than applying quantitative methods to incomplete source material, researchers will adopt a contextualized, inter-disciplinary, qualitative approach to diverse agents involved in cultural and commercial exchange.
Summary
European incursions onto the narrow isthmian pass that divided and connected the Atlantic and Pacific oceans made it a strategic node of the Spanish Empire and a crucial site for early modern globalization. On the front lines of the convergence of four continents, Old Panama offers an unusual opportunity for examining the diverse, often asymmetrical impacts of cultural and commercial contacts. The role of Italian, Portuguese, British, Dutch, and French interests in the area, as well as an influx of African slaves and Asian merchandise, have left a unique material legacy that requires an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to its varied sources. Bones, teeth and artifacts on this artery of Empire offer the possibility of new insights into the cultural and biological impact of early globalization. They also invite an interdisciplinary approach to different groups’ tactics for survival, including possible dietary changes, and the pursuit of profit. Such strategies may have led the diverse peoples inhabiting this junction, from indigenous allies to African and Asian bandits to European corsairs, to develop and to favor local production and Pacific trade networks at the expense of commerce with the metropolis.
This project applies historical, archaeological and archaeometric methodologies to evidence of encounters between peoples and goods from Europe, America, Africa and Asia that took place on the Isthmus of Panama during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Forging an interdisciplinary approach to early globalization, it challenges both Euro-centric and Hispano-phobic interpretations of the impact of the conquest of America, traditionally seen as a demographic catastrophe that reached its nadir in the so-called seventeenth-century crisis. Rather than applying quantitative methods to incomplete source material, researchers will adopt a contextualized, inter-disciplinary, qualitative approach to diverse agents involved in cultural and commercial exchange.
Max ERC Funding
1 998 875 €
Duration
Start date: 2016-01-01, End date: 2020-12-31