Project acronym COHORT
Project The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change
Researcher (PI) Vegard Fykse Skirbekk
Host Institution (HI) INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2009-StG
Summary The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.
Summary
The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.
Max ERC Funding
981 415 €
Duration
Start date: 2009-10-01, End date: 2015-03-31
Project acronym DEMIG
Project The determinants of international migration: A theoretical and empirical assessment of policy, origin and destination effects
Researcher (PI) Hein Gysbert De Haas
Host Institution (HI) THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2009-StG
Summary The main question of this research project is: how do migration policies of receiving and sending states affect the size, direction and nature of international migration to wealthy countries? The effectiveness of migration policies has been widely contested in the face of their apparent failure to steer immigration and their many unintended, perverse effects. Due to fundamental conceptual and methodological flaws, most empirical evidence has remained largely descriptive and biased by omitting crucial sending country and policy variables. This project answers this question by embedding the systematic empirical analysis of policy effects into a comprehensive theoretical framework of the macro and meso-level forces driving international migration to and from wealthy countries. This is achieved by linking separately evolved migration theories focusing on either sending or receiving countries and integrating them with theories on the internal dynamics of migration processes. A systematic review and categorisation of receiving and sending country migration policies will provide an improved operationalisation of policy variables. Subsequently, this framework will be subjected to quantitative empirical tests drawing on gross and bilateral (country-to-country) migration flow data, with a particular focus on Europe. Methodologically, this project is groundbreaking by introducing a longitudinal, double comparative approach by studying migration flows of multiple origin groups to multiple destination countries. This design enables a unique, simultaneous analysis of origin and destination country, network and policy effects. Theoretically, this research project is innovative by going beyond simple push-pull and equilibrium models and linking sending and receiving side, and economic and non-economic migration theory. This project is policy-relevant by improving insight in the way policies shape migration processes in their interaction with other migration determinants
Summary
The main question of this research project is: how do migration policies of receiving and sending states affect the size, direction and nature of international migration to wealthy countries? The effectiveness of migration policies has been widely contested in the face of their apparent failure to steer immigration and their many unintended, perverse effects. Due to fundamental conceptual and methodological flaws, most empirical evidence has remained largely descriptive and biased by omitting crucial sending country and policy variables. This project answers this question by embedding the systematic empirical analysis of policy effects into a comprehensive theoretical framework of the macro and meso-level forces driving international migration to and from wealthy countries. This is achieved by linking separately evolved migration theories focusing on either sending or receiving countries and integrating them with theories on the internal dynamics of migration processes. A systematic review and categorisation of receiving and sending country migration policies will provide an improved operationalisation of policy variables. Subsequently, this framework will be subjected to quantitative empirical tests drawing on gross and bilateral (country-to-country) migration flow data, with a particular focus on Europe. Methodologically, this project is groundbreaking by introducing a longitudinal, double comparative approach by studying migration flows of multiple origin groups to multiple destination countries. This design enables a unique, simultaneous analysis of origin and destination country, network and policy effects. Theoretically, this research project is innovative by going beyond simple push-pull and equilibrium models and linking sending and receiving side, and economic and non-economic migration theory. This project is policy-relevant by improving insight in the way policies shape migration processes in their interaction with other migration determinants
Max ERC Funding
1 186 768 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2014-12-31
Project acronym ICARUS
Project Innovation for Climate chAnge mitigation: a study of energy R&d, its Uncertain effectiveness and Spillovers
Researcher (PI) Valentina Bosetti
Host Institution (HI) FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2009-StG
Summary Much has been said on how to reduce current anthropogenic emissions with the aid of a portfolio of existing technologies. However, stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses to a safe level requires that over time net emissions fall to zero. There is only one way that this can be achieved in a manner that is acceptable to the majority of the world's citizens: through some kind of technological revolution. To bring about such an innovation breakthrough extensive research and development (R&D) investments will be required. This will be specifically important for Europe, given its leading position in climate negotiations and in the light of the Lisbon Agenda. Technological breakthroughs will have an essential role in tackling the competitiveness issue that has gained great relevance lately in the policy debate. On top of this, technological transfers to Developing Countries could be the turning key to solve the logjam affecting international negotiations.
The current proposal aims at producing an unprecedented analysis of energy-related innovation mechanisms; understanding the role of R&D investments and of inter countries and inter sector spillovers; disentangling the role of public and private R&D investments; incorporating in the analysis the uncertainty that inevitably affects the successfulness of R&D programs; simulating optimal responses using an integrated assessment model. The analysis will make use of empirical analysis of existing databases and will collect new data. Expert elicitation methods will be used in order to better assess technology-specific uncertain effectiveness of R&D programs. Simulation models will be used to produce quantitative grounded results. Summa of the analyses will be projections for optimal public and private energy R&D and energy technologies investment strategies as a product of a cost effectiveness analysis of a stringent climate stabilization target.
Summary
Much has been said on how to reduce current anthropogenic emissions with the aid of a portfolio of existing technologies. However, stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses to a safe level requires that over time net emissions fall to zero. There is only one way that this can be achieved in a manner that is acceptable to the majority of the world's citizens: through some kind of technological revolution. To bring about such an innovation breakthrough extensive research and development (R&D) investments will be required. This will be specifically important for Europe, given its leading position in climate negotiations and in the light of the Lisbon Agenda. Technological breakthroughs will have an essential role in tackling the competitiveness issue that has gained great relevance lately in the policy debate. On top of this, technological transfers to Developing Countries could be the turning key to solve the logjam affecting international negotiations.
The current proposal aims at producing an unprecedented analysis of energy-related innovation mechanisms; understanding the role of R&D investments and of inter countries and inter sector spillovers; disentangling the role of public and private R&D investments; incorporating in the analysis the uncertainty that inevitably affects the successfulness of R&D programs; simulating optimal responses using an integrated assessment model. The analysis will make use of empirical analysis of existing databases and will collect new data. Expert elicitation methods will be used in order to better assess technology-specific uncertain effectiveness of R&D programs. Simulation models will be used to produce quantitative grounded results. Summa of the analyses will be projections for optimal public and private energy R&D and energy technologies investment strategies as a product of a cost effectiveness analysis of a stringent climate stabilization target.
Max ERC Funding
920 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2013-09-30
Project acronym LIVEDIFFERENCE
Project Living with Difference in Europe - Making Communities out of Strangers in an era of super-mobility and super-diversity
Researcher (PI) Gillian Margaret Valentine
Host Institution (HI) THE UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH3, ERC-2009-AdG
Summary We are witnessing unprecedented levels of mobility (within and beyond the European Union) and population change. In this context, how we develop the capacity to live with difference is the key question of the 21st century. It is this fundamental research question which this proposal addresses (an issue that is particularly pertinent given rising levels of insecurity generated by post 9/11 terrorism and the current global financial crisis). This will be achieved by the generation of a new body of information and understanding about the extent and nature of everyday encounters with difference through five inter-linked projects, each collecting original empirical data in the UK and Poland. My vision is to advance the theorization of meaningful contact by using this data about spatial practices of encounter and intersectionality to shed new light on mostly unevidenced interdisciplinary theories of cosmopolitanism; and to develop further an innovative social topographic approach for transcending conventional comparative research perspectives by producing a sophisticated model of the complex webs of connection across the research locations, integrating the findings from a post-colonial and post-communist state. I will develop new horizons in methodological practice through the development of biographical timelines, and audio diaries to capture qualitative longitudinal data; video-elicitation of encounters with difference; and radical spatial experiments to create meaningful contact. The findings will provide an integrated evidence base about everyday understandings of difference and spatial practices of encounter that will inform, and nuance, European policies and strategies for living with difference. This programme will be unique internationally and will open up new directions in the interdisciplinary study of cosmopolitanism.
Summary
We are witnessing unprecedented levels of mobility (within and beyond the European Union) and population change. In this context, how we develop the capacity to live with difference is the key question of the 21st century. It is this fundamental research question which this proposal addresses (an issue that is particularly pertinent given rising levels of insecurity generated by post 9/11 terrorism and the current global financial crisis). This will be achieved by the generation of a new body of information and understanding about the extent and nature of everyday encounters with difference through five inter-linked projects, each collecting original empirical data in the UK and Poland. My vision is to advance the theorization of meaningful contact by using this data about spatial practices of encounter and intersectionality to shed new light on mostly unevidenced interdisciplinary theories of cosmopolitanism; and to develop further an innovative social topographic approach for transcending conventional comparative research perspectives by producing a sophisticated model of the complex webs of connection across the research locations, integrating the findings from a post-colonial and post-communist state. I will develop new horizons in methodological practice through the development of biographical timelines, and audio diaries to capture qualitative longitudinal data; video-elicitation of encounters with difference; and radical spatial experiments to create meaningful contact. The findings will provide an integrated evidence base about everyday understandings of difference and spatial practices of encounter that will inform, and nuance, European policies and strategies for living with difference. This programme will be unique internationally and will open up new directions in the interdisciplinary study of cosmopolitanism.
Max ERC Funding
2 181 400 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-06-01, End date: 2014-05-31
Project acronym LONGEVITYBYCAUSE
Project Cause of Death Contribution to Longevity: Modeling Time Trends
Researcher (PI) Vladimir Canudas Romo
Host Institution (HI) SYDDANSK UNIVERSITET
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2009-StG
Summary Since the mid-nineteen century life expectancy in developed countries has doubled, increasing from levels around 40 years to above 80 years. This research project is motivated by the need to further explore how societies have achieved the current levels of longevity, in terms of life expectancy and modal age at death. To achieve this, age-patterns and time-trends in cause of death contribution to longevity are assessed. This historical analysis is carried out in fifty developed and developing countries/areas. It is expected that the cause of death contribution to the advancement of longevity is country/region specific. However, the hypothesis to be tested is that there are common cause-specific time-trends across countries which can be described by a model of cause of death contribution to longevity. Several purposes for such a model can be listed: it will allow us to study expected future mortality directions in developed nations that are currently still facing high levels of some particular causes of death, e.g. the Netherlands and United States. It could also help investigating the retrocession in mortality observed in some transitional countries/areas, particularly in Eastern Europe. Finally, the accelerated epidemiological transition in developing countries is compared to the slower trend in the developed world at earlier times, model results versus observed cause-contribution. The interest in the latter comparison is to foresee the increase in the prevalence of chronic disease in low-income countries predicted by the WHO and the World Bank. Furthermore, one in every three countries in the world has adequate cause-specific mortality data. The proposed model could facilitate estimating the current cause of death status in developing countries. This project addresses a significant question concerning the mechanisms (age and cause of death) that direct reductions in mortality.
Summary
Since the mid-nineteen century life expectancy in developed countries has doubled, increasing from levels around 40 years to above 80 years. This research project is motivated by the need to further explore how societies have achieved the current levels of longevity, in terms of life expectancy and modal age at death. To achieve this, age-patterns and time-trends in cause of death contribution to longevity are assessed. This historical analysis is carried out in fifty developed and developing countries/areas. It is expected that the cause of death contribution to the advancement of longevity is country/region specific. However, the hypothesis to be tested is that there are common cause-specific time-trends across countries which can be described by a model of cause of death contribution to longevity. Several purposes for such a model can be listed: it will allow us to study expected future mortality directions in developed nations that are currently still facing high levels of some particular causes of death, e.g. the Netherlands and United States. It could also help investigating the retrocession in mortality observed in some transitional countries/areas, particularly in Eastern Europe. Finally, the accelerated epidemiological transition in developing countries is compared to the slower trend in the developed world at earlier times, model results versus observed cause-contribution. The interest in the latter comparison is to foresee the increase in the prevalence of chronic disease in low-income countries predicted by the WHO and the World Bank. Furthermore, one in every three countries in the world has adequate cause-specific mortality data. The proposed model could facilitate estimating the current cause of death status in developing countries. This project addresses a significant question concerning the mechanisms (age and cause of death) that direct reductions in mortality.
Max ERC Funding
300 380 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2015-04-30
Project acronym MECHANICITY
Project Morphology, Energy and Climate Change in the City
Researcher (PI) Michael Batty
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH3, ERC-2009-AdG
Summary Despite half a century of sustained research into the structure of cities, we still cannot answer the most basic questions of how their morphology is affected by the energy and income of their populations. We do not know if cities will become more compact or more spread out as energy usage changes due to global warming and as we switch to renewable energy sources. What we need is much more robust theory with applicable computer models for forecasting such impacts. Many of the rudiments involving agglomeration economics, growth theory, trade, nonlinear dynamics, and fractal geometry have already been put in place with the complexity sciences providing a framework for this new social physics. But so far, energy has been strangely absent. Here we will embrace this role, thus generating theory and models able to address what cities will look like if current predictions of climate change are borne out. We will organise the project into six related themes. First, we will extend theories of urban morphology based on fractals, scaling and allometry to incorporate energetics in analogy to transport and network processes. Second we will link these to statistical thermodynamics in spatial interaction and location modelling where energy, entropy, and accessibility are central. Third we will aggregate our theories to enable comparative analyses of city shape, compactness, energy use, and density. Fourth, we will explore different dynamic regimes building on self-criticality and bifurcation. Fifth, we will make these ideas operational building on our London Tyndall Centre model, and on related work in Phoenix and Shanghai. Last, we will construct a web-based laboratory for posing what if questions about climate change and energy balance using our theoretical and empirical models.
Summary
Despite half a century of sustained research into the structure of cities, we still cannot answer the most basic questions of how their morphology is affected by the energy and income of their populations. We do not know if cities will become more compact or more spread out as energy usage changes due to global warming and as we switch to renewable energy sources. What we need is much more robust theory with applicable computer models for forecasting such impacts. Many of the rudiments involving agglomeration economics, growth theory, trade, nonlinear dynamics, and fractal geometry have already been put in place with the complexity sciences providing a framework for this new social physics. But so far, energy has been strangely absent. Here we will embrace this role, thus generating theory and models able to address what cities will look like if current predictions of climate change are borne out. We will organise the project into six related themes. First, we will extend theories of urban morphology based on fractals, scaling and allometry to incorporate energetics in analogy to transport and network processes. Second we will link these to statistical thermodynamics in spatial interaction and location modelling where energy, entropy, and accessibility are central. Third we will aggregate our theories to enable comparative analyses of city shape, compactness, energy use, and density. Fourth, we will explore different dynamic regimes building on self-criticality and bifurcation. Fifth, we will make these ideas operational building on our London Tyndall Centre model, and on related work in Phoenix and Shanghai. Last, we will construct a web-based laboratory for posing what if questions about climate change and energy balance using our theoretical and empirical models.
Max ERC Funding
2 336 806 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-07-01, End date: 2015-12-31
Project acronym OPTION
Project Optimizing Policies for Transport: accounting for Industrial Organisation in Network markets
Researcher (PI) Erik Teodoor Verhoef
Host Institution (HI) STICHTING VU
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), SH3, ERC-2009-AdG
Summary Traditional models of transport networks ignore the existence and strategic behaviour of large actors who are often active in transport markets. Examples of such large actors are private infrastructure or service operators, insurance companies, or vehicle manufacturers. Both for positive and normative analyses, this omission can lead to substantial errors, and therefore to seriously biased policy evaluations and recommendations. The reason is that such actors will have their own objectives to pursue, while their market power gives them ample opportunity to influence market outcomes through strategic behaviour. Ignoring their behavioural responses to policy changes therefore leads to a wrong prediction of the policy s optimal design as well as its impacts. An important reason why they are nevertheless usually ignored is the analytical and numerical complexity of transport network models in which large actors, with strategic behaviour, are active. This project seeks to develop such models. Specific applications will include models of road transport networks allowing for private road operators, vehicle manufacturers, and insurance companies; models of urban taxi markets; and networks models for public transport and aviation. Although applying to different cases, these models will have important methodological characteristics in common, particularly in that they apply multilevel optimization techniques for (transport) network models that account for strategic behaviour of and interactions between large actors. We will investigate how this behaviour affects the formation of network equilibria in transport markets, as well as the impacts and (second-best) optimal design of transport policies.
Summary
Traditional models of transport networks ignore the existence and strategic behaviour of large actors who are often active in transport markets. Examples of such large actors are private infrastructure or service operators, insurance companies, or vehicle manufacturers. Both for positive and normative analyses, this omission can lead to substantial errors, and therefore to seriously biased policy evaluations and recommendations. The reason is that such actors will have their own objectives to pursue, while their market power gives them ample opportunity to influence market outcomes through strategic behaviour. Ignoring their behavioural responses to policy changes therefore leads to a wrong prediction of the policy s optimal design as well as its impacts. An important reason why they are nevertheless usually ignored is the analytical and numerical complexity of transport network models in which large actors, with strategic behaviour, are active. This project seeks to develop such models. Specific applications will include models of road transport networks allowing for private road operators, vehicle manufacturers, and insurance companies; models of urban taxi markets; and networks models for public transport and aviation. Although applying to different cases, these models will have important methodological characteristics in common, particularly in that they apply multilevel optimization techniques for (transport) network models that account for strategic behaviour of and interactions between large actors. We will investigate how this behaviour affects the formation of network equilibria in transport markets, as well as the impacts and (second-best) optimal design of transport policies.
Max ERC Funding
2 493 318 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2015-04-30
Project acronym WORLDFAM
Project Towards a Unified Analysis of World Population: Family Patterns in Multilevel Perspective
Researcher (PI) Albert Esteve Palós
Host Institution (HI) CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH3, ERC-2009-StG
Summary The overarching aim of this proposal is to develop the conceptual and analytical instruments to establish a formal linkage between macro and micro level perspectives in demographic research, with an application to the study of worldwide patterns of family formation. Using census and survey microdata, we will conduct worldwide multilevel analyses that will allow us to investigate demographic trends at three levels of disaggregation: national, regional and individual. We will study the relationship between societal changes and three interrelated aspects of family formation: union formation, assortative mating, and intergenerational co-residence from the young cohort perspective. The societal effects will include phenomena such as educational expansion, women s economic activity, urbanization, as well as individual socio-economic characteristics. Analysis will be based on data from a vast new archive of international census microdata made available by the Integrated Public Use of Microdata Series international project (IPUMSi), with complementary use of Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS), Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and Gender and Generations Surveys (GGS). The full dataset will amount to 124 countries, more than 1,400 regions and 305 million person records, statistically representing roughly 90% of the world population. This research raises complex theoretical and methodological questions. We do not contend that this project will be able to establish causality; rather, we will identify and illustrate differences between and within countries based on a rigorous and comprehensive set of variables exploiting microdata to develop systematic measures at different levels. Methodologically, the project will confront the challenges of combining datasets, providing meaningful measures of family formation, creating contextual variables, optimizing computational requirements, framing models that encompass different levels, time spans and regions.
Summary
The overarching aim of this proposal is to develop the conceptual and analytical instruments to establish a formal linkage between macro and micro level perspectives in demographic research, with an application to the study of worldwide patterns of family formation. Using census and survey microdata, we will conduct worldwide multilevel analyses that will allow us to investigate demographic trends at three levels of disaggregation: national, regional and individual. We will study the relationship between societal changes and three interrelated aspects of family formation: union formation, assortative mating, and intergenerational co-residence from the young cohort perspective. The societal effects will include phenomena such as educational expansion, women s economic activity, urbanization, as well as individual socio-economic characteristics. Analysis will be based on data from a vast new archive of international census microdata made available by the Integrated Public Use of Microdata Series international project (IPUMSi), with complementary use of Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS), Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and Gender and Generations Surveys (GGS). The full dataset will amount to 124 countries, more than 1,400 regions and 305 million person records, statistically representing roughly 90% of the world population. This research raises complex theoretical and methodological questions. We do not contend that this project will be able to establish causality; rather, we will identify and illustrate differences between and within countries based on a rigorous and comprehensive set of variables exploiting microdata to develop systematic measures at different levels. Methodologically, the project will confront the challenges of combining datasets, providing meaningful measures of family formation, creating contextual variables, optimizing computational requirements, framing models that encompass different levels, time spans and regions.
Max ERC Funding
1 088 904 €
Duration
Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2015-06-30