Project acronym ALMP_ECON
Project Effective evaluation of active labour market policies in social insurance programs - improving the interaction between econometric evaluation estimators and economic theory
Researcher (PI) Bas Van Der Klaauw
Host Institution (HI) STICHTING VU
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2007-StG
Summary In most European countries social insurance programs, like welfare, unemployment insurance and disability insurance are characterized by low reemployment rates. Therefore, governments spend huge amounts of money on active labour market programs, which should help individuals in finding work. Recent surveys indicate that programs which aim at intensifying job search behaviour are much more effective than schooling programs for improving human capital. A second conclusion from these surveys is that despite the size of the spendings on these programs, evidence on its effectiveness is limited. This research proposal aims at developing an economic framework that will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of popular programs like offering reemployment bonuses, fraud detection, workfare and job search monitoring. The main innovation is that I will combine economic theory with recently developed econometric techniques and detailed administrative data sets, which have not been explored before. While most of the literature only focuses on short-term outcomes, the available data allow me to also consider the long-term effectiveness of programs. The key advantage of an economic model is that I can compare the effectiveness of the different programs, consider modifications of programs and combinations of programs. Furthermore, using an economic model I can construct profiling measures to improve the targeting of programs to subsamples of the population. This is particularly relevant if the effectiveness of programs differs between individuals or depends on the moment in time the program is offered. Therefore, the results from this research will not only be of scientific interest, but will also be of great value to policymakers.
Summary
In most European countries social insurance programs, like welfare, unemployment insurance and disability insurance are characterized by low reemployment rates. Therefore, governments spend huge amounts of money on active labour market programs, which should help individuals in finding work. Recent surveys indicate that programs which aim at intensifying job search behaviour are much more effective than schooling programs for improving human capital. A second conclusion from these surveys is that despite the size of the spendings on these programs, evidence on its effectiveness is limited. This research proposal aims at developing an economic framework that will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of popular programs like offering reemployment bonuses, fraud detection, workfare and job search monitoring. The main innovation is that I will combine economic theory with recently developed econometric techniques and detailed administrative data sets, which have not been explored before. While most of the literature only focuses on short-term outcomes, the available data allow me to also consider the long-term effectiveness of programs. The key advantage of an economic model is that I can compare the effectiveness of the different programs, consider modifications of programs and combinations of programs. Furthermore, using an economic model I can construct profiling measures to improve the targeting of programs to subsamples of the population. This is particularly relevant if the effectiveness of programs differs between individuals or depends on the moment in time the program is offered. Therefore, the results from this research will not only be of scientific interest, but will also be of great value to policymakers.
Max ERC Funding
550 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2008-07-01, End date: 2013-06-30
Project acronym ASICA
Project New constraints on the Amazonian carbon balance from airborne observations of the stable isotopes of CO2
Researcher (PI) Wouter Peters
Host Institution (HI) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), PE10, ERC-2014-CoG
Summary Severe droughts in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010 caused widespread loss of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere. This loss, almost twice the annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the EU, suggests a large sensitivity of the Amazonian carbon balance to a predicted more intense drought regime in the next decades. This is a dangerous inference though, as there is no scientific consensus on the most basic metrics of Amazonian carbon exchange: the gross primary production (GPP) and its response to moisture deficits in the soil and atmosphere. Measuring them on scales that span the whole Amazon forest was thus far impossible, but in this project I aim to deliver the first observation-based estimate of pan-Amazonian GPP and its drought induced variations.
My program builds on two recent breakthroughs in our use of stable isotopes (13C, 17O, 18O) in atmospheric CO2: (1) Our discovery that observed δ¹³C in CO2 in the atmosphere is a quantitative measure for vegetation water-use efficiency over millions of square kilometers, integrating the drought response of individual plants. (2) The possibility to precisely measure the relative ratios of 18O/16O and 17O/16O in CO2, called Δ17O. Anomalous Δ17O values are present in air coming down from the stratosphere, but this anomaly is removed upon contact of CO2 with leaf water inside plant stomata. Hence, observed Δ17O values depend directly on the magnitude of GPP. Both δ¹³C and Δ17O measurements are scarce over the Amazon-basin, and I propose more than 7000 new measurements leveraging an established aircraft monitoring program in Brazil. Quantitative interpretation of these observations will break new ground in our use of stable isotopes to understand climate variations, and is facilitated by our renowned numerical modeling system “CarbonTracker”. My program will answer two burning question in carbon cycle science today: (a) What is the magnitude of GPP in Amazonia? And (b) How does it vary over different intensities of drought?
Summary
Severe droughts in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010 caused widespread loss of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere. This loss, almost twice the annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the EU, suggests a large sensitivity of the Amazonian carbon balance to a predicted more intense drought regime in the next decades. This is a dangerous inference though, as there is no scientific consensus on the most basic metrics of Amazonian carbon exchange: the gross primary production (GPP) and its response to moisture deficits in the soil and atmosphere. Measuring them on scales that span the whole Amazon forest was thus far impossible, but in this project I aim to deliver the first observation-based estimate of pan-Amazonian GPP and its drought induced variations.
My program builds on two recent breakthroughs in our use of stable isotopes (13C, 17O, 18O) in atmospheric CO2: (1) Our discovery that observed δ¹³C in CO2 in the atmosphere is a quantitative measure for vegetation water-use efficiency over millions of square kilometers, integrating the drought response of individual plants. (2) The possibility to precisely measure the relative ratios of 18O/16O and 17O/16O in CO2, called Δ17O. Anomalous Δ17O values are present in air coming down from the stratosphere, but this anomaly is removed upon contact of CO2 with leaf water inside plant stomata. Hence, observed Δ17O values depend directly on the magnitude of GPP. Both δ¹³C and Δ17O measurements are scarce over the Amazon-basin, and I propose more than 7000 new measurements leveraging an established aircraft monitoring program in Brazil. Quantitative interpretation of these observations will break new ground in our use of stable isotopes to understand climate variations, and is facilitated by our renowned numerical modeling system “CarbonTracker”. My program will answer two burning question in carbon cycle science today: (a) What is the magnitude of GPP in Amazonia? And (b) How does it vary over different intensities of drought?
Max ERC Funding
2 269 689 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-09-01, End date: 2020-08-31
Project acronym BayesianMarkets
Project Bayesian markets for unverifiable truths
Researcher (PI) Aurelien Baillon
Host Institution (HI) ERASMUS UNIVERSITEIT ROTTERDAM
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2014-STG
Summary Subjective data play an increasing role in modern economics. For instance, new welfare measurements are based on people’s subjective assessments of their happiness or their life satisfaction. A problem of such measurements is that people have no incentives to tell the truth. To solve this problem and make those measurements incentive compatible, I will introduce a new market institution, called Bayesian markets.
Imagine we ask people whether they are happy with their life. On Bayesian markets, they will trade an asset whose value is the proportion of people answering Yes. Only those answering Yes will have the right to buy the asset and those answering No the right to sell it. Bayesian updating implies that “Yes” agents predict a higher value of the asset than “No” agents do and, consequently, “Yes” agents want to buy it while “No” agents want to sell it. I will show that truth-telling is then the optimal strategy.
Bayesian markets reward truth-telling the same way as prediction markets (betting markets) reward people for reporting their true subjective probabilities about observable events. Yet, unlike prediction markets, they do not require events to be objectively observable. Bayesian markets apply to any type of unverifiable truths, from one’s own happiness to beliefs about events that will never be observed.
The present research program will first establish the theoretical foundations of Bayesian markets. It will then develop the proper methodology to implement them. Finally, it will disseminate the use of Bayesian markets via applications.
The first application will demonstrate how degrees of expertise can be measured and will apply it to risks related to climate change and nuclear power plants. It will contribute to the political debate by shedding new light on what true experts think about these risks. The second application will provide the first incentivized measures of life satisfaction and happiness.
Summary
Subjective data play an increasing role in modern economics. For instance, new welfare measurements are based on people’s subjective assessments of their happiness or their life satisfaction. A problem of such measurements is that people have no incentives to tell the truth. To solve this problem and make those measurements incentive compatible, I will introduce a new market institution, called Bayesian markets.
Imagine we ask people whether they are happy with their life. On Bayesian markets, they will trade an asset whose value is the proportion of people answering Yes. Only those answering Yes will have the right to buy the asset and those answering No the right to sell it. Bayesian updating implies that “Yes” agents predict a higher value of the asset than “No” agents do and, consequently, “Yes” agents want to buy it while “No” agents want to sell it. I will show that truth-telling is then the optimal strategy.
Bayesian markets reward truth-telling the same way as prediction markets (betting markets) reward people for reporting their true subjective probabilities about observable events. Yet, unlike prediction markets, they do not require events to be objectively observable. Bayesian markets apply to any type of unverifiable truths, from one’s own happiness to beliefs about events that will never be observed.
The present research program will first establish the theoretical foundations of Bayesian markets. It will then develop the proper methodology to implement them. Finally, it will disseminate the use of Bayesian markets via applications.
The first application will demonstrate how degrees of expertise can be measured and will apply it to risks related to climate change and nuclear power plants. It will contribute to the political debate by shedding new light on what true experts think about these risks. The second application will provide the first incentivized measures of life satisfaction and happiness.
Max ERC Funding
1 500 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2016-01-01, End date: 2020-12-31
Project acronym COAT
Project Collapse Of Atmospheric Turbulence
Researcher (PI) Bas Johannes Henricus Van de wiel
Host Institution (HI) TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITEIT DELFT
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), PE10, ERC-2014-CoG
Summary This project aims to predict the cessation of continuous turbulence in the evening boundary layer. The interaction between the lower atmosphere and the surface is studied in detail, as this plays a crucial role in the dynamics. Present generation forecasting models are incapable to predict whether or not turbulence will survive or collapse under cold conditions. In nature, both situations frequently occur and lead to completely different temperature signatures. As such, significant forecast errors are made, particularly in arctic regions and winter conditions. Therefore, prediction of turbulence collapse is highly relevant for weather and climate prediction.
Key innovation lies in our hypothesis. The collapse of turbulence is explained from a maximum sustainable heat flux hypothesis which foresees in an enforcing positive feedback between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. A comprehensive theory for the transition between the main two nocturnal regimes would be ground-breaking in meteorological literature.
We propose an integrated approach, which combines in-depth theoretical work, simulation with models of various hierarchy (DNS, LES, RANS), and observational analysis. Such comprehensive methodology is new with respect to the problem at hand. An innovative element is the usage of Direct Numerical Simulation in combination with dynamical surface interactions. This advanced technique fully resolves turbulent motions up to their smallest scale without the need to rely on subgrid closure assumptions. From a 10-year dataset (200m mast at Cabauw, Netherlands) nights are classified according to their turbulence characteristics. Multi-night composites are used as benchmark-cases to guide realistic numerical modelling. In the validation phase, generality of the results with respect to both climate and surface characteristics is assessed by comparison with the FLUXNET data-consortium, which operates on a long-term basis over 240 sites across the globe.
Summary
This project aims to predict the cessation of continuous turbulence in the evening boundary layer. The interaction between the lower atmosphere and the surface is studied in detail, as this plays a crucial role in the dynamics. Present generation forecasting models are incapable to predict whether or not turbulence will survive or collapse under cold conditions. In nature, both situations frequently occur and lead to completely different temperature signatures. As such, significant forecast errors are made, particularly in arctic regions and winter conditions. Therefore, prediction of turbulence collapse is highly relevant for weather and climate prediction.
Key innovation lies in our hypothesis. The collapse of turbulence is explained from a maximum sustainable heat flux hypothesis which foresees in an enforcing positive feedback between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. A comprehensive theory for the transition between the main two nocturnal regimes would be ground-breaking in meteorological literature.
We propose an integrated approach, which combines in-depth theoretical work, simulation with models of various hierarchy (DNS, LES, RANS), and observational analysis. Such comprehensive methodology is new with respect to the problem at hand. An innovative element is the usage of Direct Numerical Simulation in combination with dynamical surface interactions. This advanced technique fully resolves turbulent motions up to their smallest scale without the need to rely on subgrid closure assumptions. From a 10-year dataset (200m mast at Cabauw, Netherlands) nights are classified according to their turbulence characteristics. Multi-night composites are used as benchmark-cases to guide realistic numerical modelling. In the validation phase, generality of the results with respect to both climate and surface characteristics is assessed by comparison with the FLUXNET data-consortium, which operates on a long-term basis over 240 sites across the globe.
Max ERC Funding
1 659 580 €
Duration
Start date: 2016-01-01, End date: 2020-12-31
Project acronym EdGe
Project The molecular genetic architecture of educational attainment and its significance for cognitive health
Researcher (PI) Philipp Daniel Koellinger
Host Institution (HI) STICHTING VU
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), SH1, ERC-2014-CoG
Summary Since many social and economic outcomes are moderately heritable, it is in principle possible to discover genetic variants associated with them. Such discoveries could yield new insights into the causal pathways underlying human behaviour, the complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors, and the relationship between socio-economic traits and health.
This proposal builds on a recent genome-wide association study on educational attainment (EA) led by the applicant (Rietveld et al. 2013, Science), which identified for the first time specific genetic variants robustly associated with a socio-economic outcome. The project will leverage the unique resources of the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC), which is co-led by the applicant.
The proposed research will extend existing knowledge by: 1) discovering additional genetic variants and causal pathways associated with EA; 2) developing methods to use the available genetic association results in novel, more efficient ways; 3) shedding new light on characteristics related to EA such as economic preferences, cognitive function, and cognitive health; 4) showing how policies promoting EA interact with genetic predisposition; 5) using genetic information to better understand the causal effects of educational policy interventions, 6) developing better tools to identify individuals at risk for cognition-related diseases before the onset of symptoms; and 7) identifying causal pathways of genetic influence on cognitive health via neurobiological measures. The project aims to elucidate the complex causal pathways connecting genes, environment, individual characteristics, and health-related outcomes; make methodological contributions applicable in genetic epidemiology and the social sciences; and contribute towards designing more effective public policy, which could improve public health and lower health costs.
Summary
Since many social and economic outcomes are moderately heritable, it is in principle possible to discover genetic variants associated with them. Such discoveries could yield new insights into the causal pathways underlying human behaviour, the complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors, and the relationship between socio-economic traits and health.
This proposal builds on a recent genome-wide association study on educational attainment (EA) led by the applicant (Rietveld et al. 2013, Science), which identified for the first time specific genetic variants robustly associated with a socio-economic outcome. The project will leverage the unique resources of the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC), which is co-led by the applicant.
The proposed research will extend existing knowledge by: 1) discovering additional genetic variants and causal pathways associated with EA; 2) developing methods to use the available genetic association results in novel, more efficient ways; 3) shedding new light on characteristics related to EA such as economic preferences, cognitive function, and cognitive health; 4) showing how policies promoting EA interact with genetic predisposition; 5) using genetic information to better understand the causal effects of educational policy interventions, 6) developing better tools to identify individuals at risk for cognition-related diseases before the onset of symptoms; and 7) identifying causal pathways of genetic influence on cognitive health via neurobiological measures. The project aims to elucidate the complex causal pathways connecting genes, environment, individual characteristics, and health-related outcomes; make methodological contributions applicable in genetic epidemiology and the social sciences; and contribute towards designing more effective public policy, which could improve public health and lower health costs.
Max ERC Funding
1 870 135 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-09-01, End date: 2020-08-31
Project acronym ESTUARIES
Project Estuaries shaped by biomorphodynamics, inherited landscape conditions and human interference
Researcher (PI) Maarten Gabriel Kleinhans
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Call Details Consolidator Grant (CoG), PE10, ERC-2014-CoG
Summary ESTUARIES are shallow coastal water bodies with river inflow shaped by biomorphological processes, with patterns of channels and shoals, sand/mud flats, tidal marshes, vegetated banks and peat. Development was influenced by early Holocene landscape that drowned under sealevel rise, and by human interference.
Estuaries harbour highly productive natural habitats and are of pivotal economic importance for food production, access to harbours and urban safety. Accelerating sealevel rise, changing river discharge and interference threaten these functions, but we lack fundamental understanding and models to predict combined effects of biomorphological interactions, inherited landscape and changing drivers.
We do not understand to what extent present estuary planform shape and shoal patterns resulted from biomorphological processes interacting with inherited conditions and interference. Ecology suggests dominant effects of flow-resisting and sediment de/stabilising eco-engineering species. Yet abiotic physics-based models reproduce channel-shoal patterns surprisingly well, but must assume a fixed planform estuary shape. Holocene reconstructions emphasise inherited landscape- and agricultural effects on this planform shape, yet fossil shells and peat also imply eco-engineering effects.
My aims are to develop models for large-scale planform shape and size of sandy estuaries and predict past and future, large-scale effects of biomorphological interactions and inherited conditions.
We will significantly advance our understanding by our state-of-the-art eco-morphological model, my unique analogue landscape models with eco-engineers and a new, automated paleogeographic reconstruction of 10 data-rich Holocene estuaries on the south-east North Sea coast. We will systematically compare these to modelled scenarios with biomorphological processes, historic interference and inherited valley geometry and substrate. Outcomes will benefit ecology, archeology, oceanography and engineering
Summary
ESTUARIES are shallow coastal water bodies with river inflow shaped by biomorphological processes, with patterns of channels and shoals, sand/mud flats, tidal marshes, vegetated banks and peat. Development was influenced by early Holocene landscape that drowned under sealevel rise, and by human interference.
Estuaries harbour highly productive natural habitats and are of pivotal economic importance for food production, access to harbours and urban safety. Accelerating sealevel rise, changing river discharge and interference threaten these functions, but we lack fundamental understanding and models to predict combined effects of biomorphological interactions, inherited landscape and changing drivers.
We do not understand to what extent present estuary planform shape and shoal patterns resulted from biomorphological processes interacting with inherited conditions and interference. Ecology suggests dominant effects of flow-resisting and sediment de/stabilising eco-engineering species. Yet abiotic physics-based models reproduce channel-shoal patterns surprisingly well, but must assume a fixed planform estuary shape. Holocene reconstructions emphasise inherited landscape- and agricultural effects on this planform shape, yet fossil shells and peat also imply eco-engineering effects.
My aims are to develop models for large-scale planform shape and size of sandy estuaries and predict past and future, large-scale effects of biomorphological interactions and inherited conditions.
We will significantly advance our understanding by our state-of-the-art eco-morphological model, my unique analogue landscape models with eco-engineers and a new, automated paleogeographic reconstruction of 10 data-rich Holocene estuaries on the south-east North Sea coast. We will systematically compare these to modelled scenarios with biomorphological processes, historic interference and inherited valley geometry and substrate. Outcomes will benefit ecology, archeology, oceanography and engineering
Max ERC Funding
2 000 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-12-01, End date: 2020-11-30
Project acronym INFANT EARTH
Project The Making of the Earth – Reading the Geochemical Code from Meteorites and the Earth’s Oldest Rocks
Researcher (PI) Carsten Muenker
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITAET ZU KOELN
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), PE10, ERC-2014-ADG
Summary It is still an open question how Earth became the rocky habitable planet as we know it today. This is because there is a significant time gap of several 100 million years between Earth’s oldest rock archives (ca. 4 billion years old) and most extraterrestrial samples like meteorites that archive the birth of our solar system ca. 4.5 billion years ago. Within this time gap, three key processes that shaped our planet took place, i.e., Earth’s growth via asteroidal collisions, formation of the metal core and a first solid crust, and the delivery of volatiles such as water. Because rock samples are lacking, these fundamental processes have to be traced indirectly, by using highly sophisticated geochemical tools like isotope or trace element compositions of younger rocks or meteorites.
With this proposal, I plan to better unravel Earth’s earliest history and better identify its building blocks, by combining the geochemical record locked in Earth`s oldest rocks and extraterrestrial samples. The ground breaking nature of this work is the development of new geochemical techniques that are way beyond the current state of art, and many of them will be applied at an unprecedented level of sensitivity and precision. I will cover three linked approaches, namely high precision analyses of (i) nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies, (ii) radiogenic isotopes and (iii) trace elements. To better constrain the history of volatile delivery to the nascent Earth, a focus will be on comparing the geochemical record provided by refractory and volatile elements. In their synergy, the results will provide a major advance in unravelling Earth’s earliest history.
INFANTEARTH builds on high profile research strengths of our group, where a unique pool of collaborating scientists and analytical equipment are available. We have also acquired a nearly unique collection of Earth’s oldest rock samples and of extraterrestrial samples supplied from institutions such as NASA or collaborating museums.
Summary
It is still an open question how Earth became the rocky habitable planet as we know it today. This is because there is a significant time gap of several 100 million years between Earth’s oldest rock archives (ca. 4 billion years old) and most extraterrestrial samples like meteorites that archive the birth of our solar system ca. 4.5 billion years ago. Within this time gap, three key processes that shaped our planet took place, i.e., Earth’s growth via asteroidal collisions, formation of the metal core and a first solid crust, and the delivery of volatiles such as water. Because rock samples are lacking, these fundamental processes have to be traced indirectly, by using highly sophisticated geochemical tools like isotope or trace element compositions of younger rocks or meteorites.
With this proposal, I plan to better unravel Earth’s earliest history and better identify its building blocks, by combining the geochemical record locked in Earth`s oldest rocks and extraterrestrial samples. The ground breaking nature of this work is the development of new geochemical techniques that are way beyond the current state of art, and many of them will be applied at an unprecedented level of sensitivity and precision. I will cover three linked approaches, namely high precision analyses of (i) nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies, (ii) radiogenic isotopes and (iii) trace elements. To better constrain the history of volatile delivery to the nascent Earth, a focus will be on comparing the geochemical record provided by refractory and volatile elements. In their synergy, the results will provide a major advance in unravelling Earth’s earliest history.
INFANTEARTH builds on high profile research strengths of our group, where a unique pool of collaborating scientists and analytical equipment are available. We have also acquired a nearly unique collection of Earth’s oldest rock samples and of extraterrestrial samples supplied from institutions such as NASA or collaborating museums.
Max ERC Funding
2 499 735 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-09-01, End date: 2021-08-31
Project acronym InfoAggregation
Project Information Aggregation in Elections
Researcher (PI) Stephan Lauermann
Host Institution (HI) RHEINISCHE FRIEDRICH-WILHELMS-UNIVERSITAT BONN
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2014-STG
Summary Elections are the foundation for democratic decision making. This research program will examine the effects of biased and privately informed entities—election organizers—on the ability of elections to aggregate information: Existing theory demonstrates that large electorates can reach correct decisions by aggregating information dispersed among many voters. However, existing theory does not account for the ubiquitous presence of biased organizers who intend to affect the election outcome. Examples of biased organizers may include a CEO holding a shareholder vote, a regional government holding a referendum, and political parties in general elections.
This project will develop and analyze new models of voting that account for the effects of biased organizers on information aggregation. One of the examples I consider is an election organizer who can increase voter participation at some cost (e.g., through advertising). Preliminary work suggests that the presence of biased organizers has significant impact. As increasing participation becomes cheap, equilibria exist where the election organizer recruits a large number voters and yet the majority votes almost surely for the organizer’s favorite policy. This failure of information aggregation contrasts starkly with existing results for elections in which the number of voters is exogenously large.
I will study the effectiveness of institutional safeguards against such manipulation, including supermajority rules, publicity requirements, and the regulation of communication to voters, and I will apply the theory in the context of shareholder voting and corporate control. Thus, this research program has important implications for the design of elections in realistic voting scenarios.
Summary
Elections are the foundation for democratic decision making. This research program will examine the effects of biased and privately informed entities—election organizers—on the ability of elections to aggregate information: Existing theory demonstrates that large electorates can reach correct decisions by aggregating information dispersed among many voters. However, existing theory does not account for the ubiquitous presence of biased organizers who intend to affect the election outcome. Examples of biased organizers may include a CEO holding a shareholder vote, a regional government holding a referendum, and political parties in general elections.
This project will develop and analyze new models of voting that account for the effects of biased organizers on information aggregation. One of the examples I consider is an election organizer who can increase voter participation at some cost (e.g., through advertising). Preliminary work suggests that the presence of biased organizers has significant impact. As increasing participation becomes cheap, equilibria exist where the election organizer recruits a large number voters and yet the majority votes almost surely for the organizer’s favorite policy. This failure of information aggregation contrasts starkly with existing results for elections in which the number of voters is exogenously large.
I will study the effectiveness of institutional safeguards against such manipulation, including supermajority rules, publicity requirements, and the regulation of communication to voters, and I will apply the theory in the context of shareholder voting and corporate control. Thus, this research program has important implications for the design of elections in realistic voting scenarios.
Max ERC Funding
616 003 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-07-01, End date: 2020-06-30
Project acronym O2RIGIN
Project From the origin of Earth's volatiles to atmospheric oxygenation
Researcher (PI) Stephan König
Host Institution (HI) EBERHARD KARLS UNIVERSITAET TUEBINGEN
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), PE10, ERC-2014-STG
Summary Aim of this project is to understand the connection between endogenic and exogenic processes of our planet that led to the redox contrast between Earth’s surface and interior. For this purpose the time constraints on atmospheric oxygenation can be refined and for the first time linked with a new approach to Earth’s endogenic processes like plate tectonics, mantle melting, volcanism, continent formation and subduction-related sediment- and crust recycling. These objectives will be achieved by using the unique geochemical capabilities of the selenium (Se) isotope system to unlock the geological record of changing oxygen fugacities in the mantle-crust-atmosphere reservoirs. The power of the Se isotope system lies in its redox sensitivity and in the volatile and highly siderophile/chalcophile character of elemental Se. This links Se to the evolution of other volatiles during key geological processes from Earth formation ca. 4.5 Ga ago until today. The occurrence and behavior of Se is fully controlled by accessory micrometric sulfide minerals in the silicate Earth, which may conserve their original Se isotopic signatures over large geological timescales and can be dated via the 187Re-187Os geochronometer. This offers high resolutions in time and space that are groundbreaking for research on Earth System Oxygenation. Covering Earth geologic history, new high-precision Se isotope data of the sedimentary and representative mantle-derived magmatic rock record from all major plate tectonic settings will be combined with the mineral-scale record of robust and global “time capsules” such as diamond inclusions. Once the evolution into todays dynamic Earth’s Redox System is understood, the investigation will be pushed back in time to Earth’s formation. This involves a reconciliation of the meteoritic and Archean rock and mineral-scale Se isotope record to constrain the origin of volatiles essential for the oceans, generation of an atmosphere and development of life on our planet.
Summary
Aim of this project is to understand the connection between endogenic and exogenic processes of our planet that led to the redox contrast between Earth’s surface and interior. For this purpose the time constraints on atmospheric oxygenation can be refined and for the first time linked with a new approach to Earth’s endogenic processes like plate tectonics, mantle melting, volcanism, continent formation and subduction-related sediment- and crust recycling. These objectives will be achieved by using the unique geochemical capabilities of the selenium (Se) isotope system to unlock the geological record of changing oxygen fugacities in the mantle-crust-atmosphere reservoirs. The power of the Se isotope system lies in its redox sensitivity and in the volatile and highly siderophile/chalcophile character of elemental Se. This links Se to the evolution of other volatiles during key geological processes from Earth formation ca. 4.5 Ga ago until today. The occurrence and behavior of Se is fully controlled by accessory micrometric sulfide minerals in the silicate Earth, which may conserve their original Se isotopic signatures over large geological timescales and can be dated via the 187Re-187Os geochronometer. This offers high resolutions in time and space that are groundbreaking for research on Earth System Oxygenation. Covering Earth geologic history, new high-precision Se isotope data of the sedimentary and representative mantle-derived magmatic rock record from all major plate tectonic settings will be combined with the mineral-scale record of robust and global “time capsules” such as diamond inclusions. Once the evolution into todays dynamic Earth’s Redox System is understood, the investigation will be pushed back in time to Earth’s formation. This involves a reconciliation of the meteoritic and Archean rock and mineral-scale Se isotope record to constrain the origin of volatiles essential for the oceans, generation of an atmosphere and development of life on our planet.
Max ERC Funding
1 498 353 €
Duration
Start date: 2015-03-01, End date: 2021-02-28
Project acronym PREFERENCES
Project Understanding Preferences: Measurement, Prevalence, Determinants and Consequences
Researcher (PI) Armin Falk
Host Institution (HI) RHEINISCHE FRIEDRICH-WILHELMS-UNIVERSITAT BONN
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), SH1, ERC-2007-StG
Summary This project analyzes the distribution, origin, determinants and consequences of human preferences. Preferences are key building blocks of any economic model and fundamentally determine human behavior both at an individual and a country wide level. Four particularly important types of preferences, which will be studied in this research project, are risk preferences, time preferences, social preferences and preferences for work and leisure. Despite their fundamental importance, empirical knowledge regarding the nature of preferences is still very limited. Crucial open questions concern: the pervasiveness of different degrees of risk aversion, impatience, social preferences and preferences for work and leisure in the population; the extent to which different preferences vary systematically with personal characteristics, such as gender, age, and educational background; the correlation between preferences within person, e.g., whether individuals who are risk averse also tend to be impatient; the relation between economic preferences and other non-cognitive skills, such as personality (e.g., Big Five) and cognitive skills measured in terms of IQ; the origin of preferences, e.g., the extent to which preferences are passed on from one generation to the next; the possibility that preferences and attitudes vary systematically with the social and institutional environment; and the degree to which individual preference endowments differ across populations and countries. Answering theses questions is of great importance, both from a general research perspective as well as from a policy oriented point of view. This project is highly innovative as it combines experimental and survey techniques and because it bridges insights from many disciplines.
Summary
This project analyzes the distribution, origin, determinants and consequences of human preferences. Preferences are key building blocks of any economic model and fundamentally determine human behavior both at an individual and a country wide level. Four particularly important types of preferences, which will be studied in this research project, are risk preferences, time preferences, social preferences and preferences for work and leisure. Despite their fundamental importance, empirical knowledge regarding the nature of preferences is still very limited. Crucial open questions concern: the pervasiveness of different degrees of risk aversion, impatience, social preferences and preferences for work and leisure in the population; the extent to which different preferences vary systematically with personal characteristics, such as gender, age, and educational background; the correlation between preferences within person, e.g., whether individuals who are risk averse also tend to be impatient; the relation between economic preferences and other non-cognitive skills, such as personality (e.g., Big Five) and cognitive skills measured in terms of IQ; the origin of preferences, e.g., the extent to which preferences are passed on from one generation to the next; the possibility that preferences and attitudes vary systematically with the social and institutional environment; and the degree to which individual preference endowments differ across populations and countries. Answering theses questions is of great importance, both from a general research perspective as well as from a policy oriented point of view. This project is highly innovative as it combines experimental and survey techniques and because it bridges insights from many disciplines.
Max ERC Funding
1 340 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2009-01-01, End date: 2013-12-31
