ERC FUNDED PROJECTS

"The A2C2 project treats two major challenges in climate and atmospheric research: the time dependence of the climate attractor to external forcings (solar, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic), and the attribution of extreme climate events occurring in the northern extra-tropics. The main difficulties are the limited climate information, the computer cost of model simulations, and mathematical assumptions that are hardly verified and often overlooked in the literature. A2C2 proposes a practical framework to overcome those three difficulties, linking the theory of dynamical systems and statistics. We will generalize the methodology of flow analogues to multiple databases in order to obtain probabilistic descriptions of analogue decompositions. The project is divided into three workpackages (WP). WP1 embeds the analogue method in the theory of dynamical systems in order to provide a metric of an attractor deformation in time. The important methodological step is to detect trends or persisting outliers in the dates and scores of analogues when the system yields time-varying forcings. This is done from idealized models and full size climate models in which the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are known. A2C2 creates an open source toolkit to compute flow analogues from a wide array of databases (WP2). WP3 treats the two scientific challenges with the analogue method and multiple model ensembles, hence allowing uncertainty estimates under realistic mathematical hypotheses. The flow analogue methodology allows a systematic and quasi real-time analysis of extreme events, which is currently out of the reach of conventional climate modeling approaches. The major breakthrough of A2C2 is to bridge the gap between operational needs (the immediate analysis of climate events) and the understanding long-term climate changes. A2C2 opens new research horizons for the exploitation of ensembles of simulations and reliable estimates of uncertainty."

1 491 457 €

Start date: 2014-03-01, End date: 2019-02-28

Clouds play a key role in the climate system. Small anthropogenic perturbations of the cloud system potentially have large radiative effects. Aerosols perturb the global radiation budget directly, by scattering and absorption, as well as indirectly, by the modification of cloud properties and occurrence. The applicability of traditional conceptual models of indirect aerosol effects to convective clouds is disputed as cloud dynamics complicates the picture. Strong evidence for numerous aerosol effects on convection has been established in individual disciplines: through remote sensing and in-situ observations as well as by cloud resolving and global modelling. However, a coherent scientific view of the effects of aerosols on convection has yet to be established. The primary objective of ACCLAIM is to recast the effects of aerosols on convective clouds as basis for improved global estimates of anthropogenic climate effects. Specific objectives include: i) to unravel the governing principles of aerosol effects on convective clouds; ii) provide quantitative constraints on satellite-retrieved relationships between convective clouds and aerosols; and ultimately iii) to enable global climate models to represent the full range of anthropogenic climate perturbations and quantify the climate response to aerosol effects on convective clouds. I have developed the research strategy of ACCLAIM to overcome disciplinary barriers in this frontier research area and seek five years of funding to establish an interdisciplinary, physics focused, research group consisting of two PostDocs, two PhD students and myself. ACCLAIM will be centred around global aerosol-convection climate modelling studies, complemented by research constraining aerosol-convection interactions through remote sensing and a process focused research strand, advancing fundamental understanding and global model parameterisations through high resolution aerosol-cloud modelling in synergy with in-situ observations.

1 429 243 €

Start date: 2011-09-01, End date: 2017-02-28

Formation of the Earth and the other terrestrial planets of our Solar System (Mercury, Venus and Mars) commenced 4.568 billion years ago and occurred on a time scale of about 100 million years. These planets grew by the process of accretion, which involved numerous collisions with smaller (Moon- to Mars-size) bodies. Impacts with such bodies released sufficient energy to cause large-scale melting and the formation of deep “magma oceans”. Such magma oceans enabled liquid metal to separate from liquid silicate, sink and accumulate to form the metallic cores of the planets. Thus core formation in terrestrial planets was a multistage process, intimately related to the major impacts during accretion, that determined the chemistry of planetary mantles. However, until now, accretion, as modelled by astrophysicists, and core formation, as modelled by geochemists, have been treated as completely independent processes. The fundamental and crucial aim of this ambitious interdisciplinary proposal is to integrate astrophysical models of planetary accretion with geochemical models of planetary differentiation together with cosmochemical constraints obtained from meteorites. The research will involve integrating new models of planetary accretion with core formation models based on the partitioning of a large number of elements between liquid metal and liquid silicate that we will determine experimentally at pressures up to about 100 gigapascals (equivalent to 2400 km deep in the Earth). By comparing our results with the known physical and chemical characteristics of the terrestrial planets, we will obtain a comprehensive understanding of how these planets formed, grew and evolved, both physically and chemically, with time. The integration of chemistry and planetary differentiation with accretion models is a new ground-breaking concept that will lead, through synergies and feedback, to major new advances in the Earth and planetary sciences.

1 826 200 €

Start date: 2012-05-01, End date: 2018-04-30

The rise of atmospheric O2 ~2,500 million years ago is one of the most profound transitions in Earth's history. Yet, despite its central role in shaping Earth's surface environment, the cause for the rise of O2 remains poorly understood. Tight coupling between the O2 cycle and the biogeochemical cycles of redox-active elements, such as C, Fe and S, implies radical changes in these cycles before, during and after the rise of O2. These changes, too, are incompletely understood, but have left valuable information encoded in the geological record. This information has been qualitatively interpreted, leaving many aspects of the rise of O2, including its causes and constraints on ocean chemistry before and after it, topics of ongoing research and debate. Here, I outline a research program to address this fundamental question in geochemical Earth systems evolution. The inherently interdisciplinary program uniquely integrates laboratory experiments, numerical models, geological observations, and geochemical analyses. Laboratory experiments and geological observations will constrain unknown parameters of the early biogeochemical cycles, and, in combination with field studies, will validate and refine the use of paleoenvironmental proxies. The insight gained will be used to develop detailed models of the coupled biogeochemical cycles, which will themselves be used to quantitatively understand the events surrounding the rise of O2, and to illuminate the dynamics of elemental cycles in the early oceans. This program is expected to yield novel, quantitative insight into these important events in Earth history and to have a major impact on our understanding of early ocean chemistry and the rise of O2. An ERC Starting Grant will enable me to use the excellent experimental and computational facilities at my disposal, to access the outstanding human resource at the Weizmann Institute of Science, and to address one of the major open questions in modern geochemistry.

1 472 690 €

Start date: 2013-09-01, End date: 2018-08-31