ERC FUNDED PROJECTS

Globular clusters (GCs) are enigmatic objects that hide a wealth of information. They are the living fossils of the history of their native galaxies and the record keepers of the violent events that made them change their domicile. This proposal aims to mine GCs as living fossils of galaxy evolution to address fundamental questions in astrophysics: (1) Do satellite galaxies merge as predicted by the hierarchical build-up of galaxies? (2) Which are the seeds of supermassive black holes in the centres of galaxies? (3) How did star formation originate in the earliest phases of galaxy formation? To answer these questions, novel population-dependent dynamical modelling techniques are required, whose development the PI has led over the past years. This uniquely positions him to take full advantage of the emerging wealth of chemical and kinematical data on GCs. Following the tidal disruption of satellite galaxies, their dense GCs, and maybe even their nuclei, are left as the most visible remnants in the main galaxy. The hierarchical build-up of their new host galaxy can thus be unearthed by recovering the GCs’ orbits. However, currently it is unclear which of the GCs are accretion survivors. Actually, the existence of a central intermediate mass black hole (IMBH) or of multiple stellar populations in GCs might tell which ones are accreted. At the same time, detection of IMBHs is important as they are predicted seeds for supermassive black holes in galaxies; while the multiple stellar populations in GCs are vital witnesses to the extreme modes of star formation in the early Universe. However, for every putative dynamical IMBH detection so far there is a corresponding non-detection; also the origin of multiple stellar populations in GCs still lacks any uncontrived explanation. The synergy of novel techniques and exquisite data proposed here promises a breakthrough in this emerging field of dynamical archeology with GCs as living fossils of the past of galaxies.

1 999 250 €

Start date: 2017-09-01, End date: 2022-08-31

Over the past 20 years cosmology has made the transition to a precision science: the standard cosmological model has been established and its parameters are now measured with unprecedented precision. But precision is not enough: accuracy is also crucial. Accuracy accounts for systematic errors which can be both on the observational and on the theory/modelling side (and everywhere in between). While there is a well-defined and developed framework for treating statistical errors, there is no established approach for systematic errors. The next decade will see the era of large surveys; a large coordinated effort of the scientific community in the field is on-going to map the cosmos producing an exponentially growing amount of data. This will shrink the statistical errors, making mitigation and control of systematics of the utmost importance. While there are isolated and targeted efforts to quantify systematic errors and propagate them through all the way to the final results, there is no well-established, self-consistent methodology. To go beyond precision cosmology and reap the benefits of the forthcoming observational program, a systematic approach to systematics is needed. Systematics should be interpreted in the most general sense as shifts between the recovered measured values and true values of physical quantities. I propose to develop a comprehensive approach to tackle systematic errors with the goal to uncover and quantify otherwise unknown differences between the interpretation of a measurement and reality. This will require to fully develop, combine and systematize all approaches proposed so far (many pioneered by the PI), develop new ones to fill the gaps, study and explore their interplay and finally test and validate the procedure. Beyond Precision Cosmology: Dealing with Systematic Errors (BePreSysE) will develop a framework to deal with systematics in forthcoming Cosmological surveys which, could, in principle, be applied beyond Cosmology.

1 835 220 €

Start date: 2017-06-01, End date: 2022-05-31

Distinct climate policies are studied with incomparable approaches involving unique criteria and impacts. I propose to unite core features of such approaches within a behavioral-evolutionary framework, offering three advantages: evaluate the effectiveness of very different climate policy instruments in a consistent and comparative way; examine policy mixes by considering interaction between instruments from a behavioral as well as systemic perspective; and simultaneously assessing policy impacts mediated by markets and social interactions. The key novelty is linking climate policies to populations of heterogeneous consumer and producers characterized by bounded rationality and social interactions. The resulting models will be used to assess the performance of policy instruments – such as various carbon pricing and information provision instruments – in terms of employment, equity and CO2 emissions. The approach is guided by 5 goals: (1) test robustness of insights on carbon pricing from benchmark approaches that assume representative, rational agents; (2) test contested views on joint employment-climate effects of shifting taxes from labor to carbon; (3) examine various instruments of information provision under distinct assumptions about social preferences and interactions; (4) study regulation of commercial advertising as a climate policy option in the context of status-seeking and high-carbon consumption; and (5) explore behavioral roots of energy/carbon rebound. The research has a general, conceptual-theoretical rather than a particular country focus. Given the complexity of the developed models, it involves numerical analyses with parameter values in realistic ranges, partly supported by insights from questionnaire-based surveys among consumers and firms. One survey examines information provision instruments and social interaction channels, while another assesses behavioral foundations of rebound. The project will culminate in improved advice on climate policy.

1 943 924 €

Start date: 2018-01-01, End date: 2022-12-31

In the era of globalisation, supply chains are increasingly organised on the international level, thus disconnecting final consumption from the location of material extraction and related environmental and social impacts. Reducing these global impacts – or footprints – of European consumption is a major societal and scientific challenge. Methods to assess teleconnections between distant places of raw material extraction and consumption along global supply chains have improved significantly, with multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis being the most prominent method applied. However, the limited spatial resolution of MRIO models distorts footprint calculations, as specific properties of raw materials as well as impacts of extraction can vary significantly within production countries. I therefore propose a new method for the calculation of fine-scale material consumption footprints. It will encompass (1) a spatial assessment of global material extraction on a high-resolution grid and (2) a detailed physical model that tracks raw materials from the location of extraction via international transport facilities to processing industries in importing countries. Integrating this very detailed spatial information with a MRIO model will enable the first fine-scale assessment of European countries’ material footprints, overcoming prevailing aggregation errors in footprint indicators. Furthermore, I will investigate environmental and social impacts related to material footprints through linking the spatially explicit multi-regional material flow model with datasets on impacts related to raw material extraction, such as increasing water scarcity, deforestation and mining conflicts. This project will not only lift the accuracy of footprint models to a new level, but will also open up a range of options for sustainability assessments of specific commodity flows. Building on this knowledge, targeted policy instruments for sustainable product supply chains can be designed.

1 999 909 €

Start date: 2017-07-01, End date: 2022-06-30

The objective of this project is to unravel the impact of migration on democratic participation and processes in countries of origin. Both international migration and democratic development are important contemporary public and policy concerns. Recent studies of transnational migrant practices have uncovered how migrants influence democratic participation in their homelands through the remittance of money and newfound ideas about democracy from afar or through return. Yet, there is still little comparative knowledge of how these processes intersect with broader economic, social and political transformations in countries of origin. Moreover, complex migration experiences and nonlinear processes of democratization in countries of origin point to the need for a more nuanced conceptualization of what kind of political ideas circulate and are negotiated among migrants, return migrants and non-migrants in countries of origin. The proposed project outlines an ambitious long-term comparative research strategy to analyse and theorize the scope and dynamics of processes of democratic diffusion through migration. The research strategy of the project is innovative in combining analysis of democratic diffusion across three countries of origin and at three levels of democratic participation and processes: individual citizens, civil society and among political leaders and representatives. To that end the project draws on both statistical and qualitative research methods and analysis. The project will analyse already existing aggregate data on remittances and political behaviour and, importantly, generate new comprehensive datasets based on surveys and in-depth qualitative research among non-migrants and returnees in countries of origin. Consequently, the project will contribute to our theoretical understanding of the conditions under which migration can influence democratic processes as well as the broader research fields of democracy studies, migration and citizenship.

1 451 264 €

Start date: 2018-03-01, End date: 2023-02-28

The future consolidation or erosion of western democracies depends on the political perceptions, experiences and participation of ordinary citizens. Even when they disagree on the implications of their findings, previous studies stress that both attitudinal and behavioural forms of democratic linkages – political trust, political support, loyalty, formal and informal participation – have come under considerable pressure in recent decades. The QUALIDEM project offers a qualitative (re)appraisal of citizens’ (dis-)affection towards politics by relying on the core argument of the policy feedback literature: attitudes and behaviours are outcomes of past policy. It aims to explain the evolutions of democratic linkages as being shaped by public policy, and specifically by the turn to neoliberalism and supranationalisation. It aims to systematically analyse the domestic and socially differentiated effects of both of these major macro transformations to citizens’ representations and experiences of politics, as an addition to the existing emphasis on individual determinants and the existing contextual explanations of disengagement and disaffection towards politics. On the theoretical level, this project therefore aims to build bridges between scholars of public policy and students of mass politics. On the empirical level, QUALIDEM relies on the reanalysis of qualitative data – interviews and focus groups – from a diachronic and comparative perspective focusing on four Western European countries (Belgium, France, Germany and the UK) with the US serving as a counterpoint. It will renew the methodological approach to the question of ordinary citizens’ disengagement and disaffection by providing a detailed and empirically-grounded understanding of the mechanisms of production and change in democratic linkages. It will develop an innovative methodological infrastructure for the storage of and access to twenty years of qualitative European comparative surveys.

1 491 659 €

Start date: 2017-04-01, End date: 2022-03-31