ERC FUNDED PROJECTS

A key question in modern science is to explain how the present-day universe of galaxies evolved from the initial conditions measured in the micro-wave background at recombination. Over the next 5 years I propose to undertake a major program of research to address this issue, by discovering and studying directly the progenitors of today's massive galaxies during the first ~2 billion years of cosmic history, and hence performing critical tests of current theories of galaxy formation. It is now clear that to sample representative volumes of the high-redshift universe requires ultra-deep near-infrared, mid-infrared and sub-mm surveys covering over ~1 sq. degree. Until now this has not been possible, but this field is about to be revolutionized by the introduction of a new generation of wide-field facilities in the next year. Specifically, 2009 will see the commissioning of the new near-infrared VISTA survey telescope in Chile, the new SCUBA2 sub-mm camera on the JCMT in Hawaii, the far-infrared Herschel Space Observatory, and the near-infrared camera WFC3 in the Hubble Space Telescope. Now, through my leadership of the deepest of the new generation of wide-field infrared and submm surveys to be undertaken with these revolutionary new facilities, I am unusually well-placed to take an integrated approach to the study of galaxy formation/evolution reaching back, for the first time, into the epoch of re-ionisation, at redshifts z ~ 7 - 10. Through this application I request the level of support required to exploit these new and unique data in what is one of the most important and topical areas at the forefront of modern astronomical research. Investment in this research program will also help ensure that European astronomers are strongly positioned to exploit the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Atacama Large Millimetre Array (ALMA), and future large telescopes (e.g. E-ELT) to study the physics of galaxy formation over virtually all of cosmic history.

2 317 255 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2016-03-31

Our Universe appears to be filled with mysterious ingredients: 25 per cent appears to be dark matter, perhaps an as-yet undiscovered particle, and 70 per cent seems to be a bizarre fluid, dubbed dark energy, for which there is no satisfactory theory. Solving the dark energy problem is the most pressing question in cosmology today. It is possible that dark energy does not exist at all, and instead Einstein s theory of General Relativity is flawed. Cosmologists hope to measure the properties of the dark energy using the next generation of cosmological observations, in which I am playing a leading role. I believe the most promising technique to crack the dark energy problem is gravitational shear, in which images of distant galaxies are distorted as they pass through the intervening dark matter distribution. Analysis of the distortions allows a map of the dark matter to be reconstructed; by examining the dark matter distribution we uncover the nature of the apparent dark energy. However to capitalize on the great potential of gravitational shear we must measure incredibly small image distortions in the presence of much larger image modifications that occur in the measurement process. I am proposing a fresh look at this problem using an inter-disciplinary approach in collaboration with computer scientists. This grant would enable my team to play a central role in the key results from the upcoming Dark Energy Survey. We would further capitalize on the gravitational shear signal by moving away from the current dark energy bandwagon by instead focusing on testing General Relativity using novel approaches. Our work will produce results which will lead the next Einstein to solve the biggest puzzle in cosmology, and arguably physics.

1 400 000 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2016-03-31

The main question of this research project is: how do migration policies of receiving and sending states affect the size, direction and nature of international migration to wealthy countries? The effectiveness of migration policies has been widely contested in the face of their apparent failure to steer immigration and their many unintended, perverse effects. Due to fundamental conceptual and methodological flaws, most empirical evidence has remained largely descriptive and biased by omitting crucial sending country and policy variables. This project answers this question by embedding the systematic empirical analysis of policy effects into a comprehensive theoretical framework of the macro and meso-level forces driving international migration to and from wealthy countries. This is achieved by linking separately evolved migration theories focusing on either sending or receiving countries and integrating them with theories on the internal dynamics of migration processes. A systematic review and categorisation of receiving and sending country migration policies will provide an improved operationalisation of policy variables. Subsequently, this framework will be subjected to quantitative empirical tests drawing on gross and bilateral (country-to-country) migration flow data, with a particular focus on Europe. Methodologically, this project is groundbreaking by introducing a longitudinal, double comparative approach by studying migration flows of multiple origin groups to multiple destination countries. This design enables a unique, simultaneous analysis of origin and destination country, network and policy effects. Theoretically, this research project is innovative by going beyond simple push-pull and equilibrium models and linking sending and receiving side, and economic and non-economic migration theory. This project is policy-relevant by improving insight in the way policies shape migration processes in their interaction with other migration determinants

1 186 768 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2014-12-31

I propose to combine state-of-the-art observations of weak gravitational lensing and baryon acoustic oscillations to answer one fundamental question; is the accelerating expansion of our Universe caused by dark energy, or is it a manifestation of beyond-Einstein gravity theories, as might arise if the Universe has more dimensions? This frontier research will have a wide ranging impact as is it believed that understanding the dark energy phenomenon will revolutionize our understanding of Physics today. The observational task of detecting and analysing probes of dark energy is technically very challenging and may be subject to systematic limits. I detail how I will exploit synergies between the weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillations techniques, showing that the physical systematics that effect each technique can be neatly resolved using complementary information from the alternative technique. With support from the ERC I will create an inter-disciplinary team well positioned to first solve many of the systematic problems associated with dark energy research and then apply those novel solutions to the dark energy analysis of three world-leading wide-field surveys that I currently co-investigate; CFHTLS, a recently completed 170 square degree ugriz survey, PanSTARRS-1, a soon to be started all-sky grizy survey and ADEPT, a space-based infra-red telescope for baryon acoustic oscillation studies proposed for NASA s Joint Dark Energy Mission. Using innovative 3D statistical analyses, optimised photometric redshifts and new combined lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, my ERC team will aim to control systematic errors to place joint constraints on the evolving nature of dark energy and test directly beyond-Einstein gravity.

1 258 797 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2015-10-31

Over the next decade, much effort on major astronomical facilities will be dedicated to large-scale surveys of the galaxy population. Their aim is two-fold: understanding the origin and evolution of galaxies and their central supermassive black holes, and clarifying the nature of dark matter, dark energy and the process that produced all cosmic structure. Achieving these goals will require powerful and flexible modelling tools that can simulate galaxy evolution in all viable cosmologies and under a wide variety of assumptions about the governing physical processes. Such capabilities do not currently exist. I propose to develop them through a major expansion of the functionality and scope of the Millennium Simulation archive. New simulations, new theoretical approaches and new web services will allow users to study galaxy formation across the full range of galaxy masses (from dwarf spheroidals to giant cDs). Remote users will be able to change parameters and modelling prescriptions at will, creating virtual surveys of universes with any chosen cosmology and galaxy formation model. Matching to multiwavelength surveys of real galaxies will make it possible to isolate the physical processes driving galaxy evolution, and to characterize the systematic errors that uncertain galaxy formation physics induce in precision estimates of cosmological parameters. Scientific problems where these new capabilities may be decisive in enabling progress include: the role of supermassive black holes in shaping galaxy formation; the origin of diversity in the forms of galaxies and in their nuclear activity; the effects of environment on galaxy structure; the formation history of our own Milky Way; the nature of the first galaxies and their effects on later and more easily observable generations of galaxies; the distribution and nature of dark matter; the origin of all cosmic structure; and the nature of dark energy.

1 830 000 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2014-12-31

Much has been said on how to reduce current anthropogenic emissions with the aid of a portfolio of existing technologies. However, stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses to a safe level requires that over time net emissions fall to zero. There is only one way that this can be achieved in a manner that is acceptable to the majority of the world's citizens: through some kind of technological revolution. To bring about such an innovation breakthrough extensive research and development (R&D) investments will be required. This will be specifically important for Europe, given its leading position in climate negotiations and in the light of the Lisbon Agenda. Technological breakthroughs will have an essential role in tackling the competitiveness issue that has gained great relevance lately in the policy debate. On top of this, technological transfers to Developing Countries could be the turning key to solve the logjam affecting international negotiations. The current proposal aims at producing an unprecedented analysis of energy-related innovation mechanisms; understanding the role of R&D investments and of inter countries and inter sector spillovers; disentangling the role of public and private R&D investments; incorporating in the analysis the uncertainty that inevitably affects the successfulness of R&D programs; simulating optimal responses using an integrated assessment model. The analysis will make use of empirical analysis of existing databases and will collect new data. Expert elicitation methods will be used in order to better assess technology-specific uncertain effectiveness of R&D programs. Simulation models will be used to produce quantitative grounded results. Summa of the analyses will be projections for optimal public and private energy R&D and energy technologies investment strategies as a product of a cost effectiveness analysis of a stringent climate stabilization target.

920 000 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2013-09-30

Since the mid-nineteen century life expectancy in developed countries has doubled, increasing from levels around 40 years to above 80 years. This research project is motivated by the need to further explore how societies have achieved the current levels of longevity, in terms of life expectancy and modal age at death. To achieve this, age-patterns and time-trends in cause of death contribution to longevity are assessed. This historical analysis is carried out in fifty developed and developing countries/areas. It is expected that the cause of death contribution to the advancement of longevity is country/region specific. However, the hypothesis to be tested is that there are common cause-specific time-trends across countries which can be described by a model of cause of death contribution to longevity. Several purposes for such a model can be listed: it will allow us to study expected future mortality directions in developed nations that are currently still facing high levels of some particular causes of death, e.g. the Netherlands and United States. It could also help investigating the retrocession in mortality observed in some transitional countries/areas, particularly in Eastern Europe. Finally, the accelerated epidemiological transition in developing countries is compared to the slower trend in the developed world at earlier times, model results versus observed cause-contribution. The interest in the latter comparison is to foresee the increase in the prevalence of chronic disease in low-income countries predicted by the WHO and the World Bank. Furthermore, one in every three countries in the world has adequate cause-specific mortality data. The proposed model could facilitate estimating the current cause of death status in developing countries. This project addresses a significant question concerning the mechanisms (age and cause of death) that direct reductions in mortality.

300 380 €

Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2015-04-30

We apply for financial support for the new, fourth phase of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE-IV) - one of the largest scale sky surveys worldwide, operating continuously since 1992. During its operation the OGLE project contributed significantly to many fields of modern astrophysics including gravitational microlensing, extrasolar planets searches, stellar astrophysics, Galactic structure and many others. The main scientific goal of the OGLE-IV phase will be the second generation planetary microlensing survey. It should result in top rank discoveries of the Earth mass planets and should provide the full census of planets down to Earth masses orbiting their hosts at 1-5 AU orbits. This parameter space is only accessible to the microlensing technique. Complementary census of planets orbiting at the distances smaller that 1 AU is to be made by space missions using transit technique. OGLE-IV survey will also conduct research in many other top rank astrophysical topics like the search for Pluto size dwarf planets from the Kuiper Belt, search for free-floating black holes, microlensing in the Magellanic Clouds and Galactic disk. Hundreds of new discoveries in the variable star field are also guaranteed. Moreover, OGLE-IV will operate on-line services providing real time photometry of variable objects of many types. The OGLE-IV data will be placed in public domain and available to the astronomical community.

2 498 000 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2014-12-31

Strong emission features dominate the IR spectra of the interstellar medium of the Milky Way, galaxies in the local Universe and out to redshifts of ~3. These features are generally attributed to IR fluorescence of large Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules pumped by UV photons. These species must be abundant, ubiquitous, and an important component of the ISM. However, despite extensive experimental and theoretical efforts, no specific PAH or even classes of PAHs have been unambiguously identified. Hence, we do not really know the intrinsic physical and chemical properties of these species and therefore cannot quantify their role in the Universe. I propose a highly interdisciplinary program combining observational, theoretical, and experimental studies to determine the IR emission characteristics of large PAH molecules, their origin and evolution, and their influence on the Universe around us. The proposed program will analyze interstellar PAH spectral maps obtained with Spitzer and ISO and relate the spatial variations in the spectral diversity to variations in the characteristics of the radiation field and the physical conditions of these regions that will be obtained with Herschel. This observational program will be aided by an innovative laboratory program that will measure the IR characteristics of large, astrophysically relevant PAH molecules in the gas phase and by a modelling program of the emission characteristics of these PAHs in space. In addition, the photochemistry of gaseous PAHs will be studied in the laboratory using novel techniques, allowing us to model the chemical evolution of PAHs and their reaction products in the interstellar medium. In this way, key astronomical questions involving interstellar PAHs can be addressed.

2 383 980 €

Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2015-04-30