Project acronym C8
Project Consistent computation of the chemistry-cloud continuum and climate change in Cyprus
Researcher (PI) Johannes Lelieveld
Host Institution (HI) THE CYPRUS RESEARCH AND EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATION
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), PE10, ERC-2008-AdG
Summary We have developed a new numerical method to consistently compute atmospheric trace gas and aerosol chemistry and cloud processes. The method is computationally efficient so that it can be used in climate models. For the first time cloud droplet formation on multi-component particles can be represented based on first principles rather than parameterisations. This allows for a direct coupling in models between aerosol chemical composition and the continuum between hazes and clouds as a function of ambient relative humidity. We will apply the method in a new nested global-limited area model system to study atmospheric chemistry climate interactions and anthropogenic influences. We will focus on the Mediterranean region because it is a hot spot in climate change exposed to drying and air pollution. The limited area model will also be applied as cloud-resolving model to study aerosol influences on precipitation and storm development. By simulating realistic meteorological conditions at high spatial resolution our method can be straightforwardly tested against observations. Central questions are: - How does the simulated haze-cloud continuum compare with remote sensing measurements and what is the consequence of abandoning the traditional and artificial distinction between aerosols and clouds? - How are cloud and precipitation formation influenced by atmospheric chemical composition changes? - To what extent do haze and cloud formation in polluted air exert forcings of synoptic meteorological conditions and climate? - Can aerosol pollution in the Mediterranean region exacerbate the predicted and observed drying in a changing climate? The model system is user-friendly and will facilitate air quality and climate studies by regional scientists. The project will be part of the Energy, Environment and Water Centre of the newly founded Cyprus Institute, provide input to climate impact assessments and contribute to a regional outreach programme.
Summary
We have developed a new numerical method to consistently compute atmospheric trace gas and aerosol chemistry and cloud processes. The method is computationally efficient so that it can be used in climate models. For the first time cloud droplet formation on multi-component particles can be represented based on first principles rather than parameterisations. This allows for a direct coupling in models between aerosol chemical composition and the continuum between hazes and clouds as a function of ambient relative humidity. We will apply the method in a new nested global-limited area model system to study atmospheric chemistry climate interactions and anthropogenic influences. We will focus on the Mediterranean region because it is a hot spot in climate change exposed to drying and air pollution. The limited area model will also be applied as cloud-resolving model to study aerosol influences on precipitation and storm development. By simulating realistic meteorological conditions at high spatial resolution our method can be straightforwardly tested against observations. Central questions are: - How does the simulated haze-cloud continuum compare with remote sensing measurements and what is the consequence of abandoning the traditional and artificial distinction between aerosols and clouds? - How are cloud and precipitation formation influenced by atmospheric chemical composition changes? - To what extent do haze and cloud formation in polluted air exert forcings of synoptic meteorological conditions and climate? - Can aerosol pollution in the Mediterranean region exacerbate the predicted and observed drying in a changing climate? The model system is user-friendly and will facilitate air quality and climate studies by regional scientists. The project will be part of the Energy, Environment and Water Centre of the newly founded Cyprus Institute, provide input to climate impact assessments and contribute to a regional outreach programme.
Max ERC Funding
2 196 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2009-01-01, End date: 2014-12-31
Project acronym DRY-2-DRY
Project Do droughts self-propagate and self-intensify?
Researcher (PI) Diego González Miralles
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITEIT GENT
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), PE10, ERC-2016-STG
Summary Droughts cause agricultural loss, forest mortality and drinking water scarcity. Their predicted increase in recurrence and intensity poses serious threats to future global food security. Several historically unprecedented droughts have already occurred over the last decade in Europe, Australia and the USA. The cost of the ongoing Californian drought is estimated to be about US$3 billion. Still today, the knowledge of how droughts start and evolve remains limited, and so does the understanding of how climate change may affect them.
Positive feedbacks from land have been suggested as critical for the occurrence of recent droughts: as rainfall deficits dry out soil and vegetation, the evaporation of land water is reduced, then the local air becomes too dry to yield rainfall, which further enhances drought conditions. Importantly, this is not just a 'local' feedback, as remote regions may rely on evaporated water transported by winds from the drought-affected region. Following this rationale, droughts self-propagate and self-intensify.
However, a global capacity to observe these processes is lacking. Furthermore, climate and forecast models are immature when it comes to representing the influences of land on rainfall. Do climate models underestimate this land feedback? If so, future drought aggravation will be greater than currently expected. At the moment, this remains largely speculative, given the limited number of studies of these processes.
I propose to use novel in situ and satellite records of soil moisture, evaporation and precipitation, in combination with new mechanistic models that can map water vapour trajectories and explore multi-dimensional feedbacks. DRY-2-DRY will not only advance our fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms triggering droughts, it will also provide independent evidence of the extent to which managing land cover can help 'dampen' drought events, and enable progress towards more accurate short-term and long-term drought forecasts.
Summary
Droughts cause agricultural loss, forest mortality and drinking water scarcity. Their predicted increase in recurrence and intensity poses serious threats to future global food security. Several historically unprecedented droughts have already occurred over the last decade in Europe, Australia and the USA. The cost of the ongoing Californian drought is estimated to be about US$3 billion. Still today, the knowledge of how droughts start and evolve remains limited, and so does the understanding of how climate change may affect them.
Positive feedbacks from land have been suggested as critical for the occurrence of recent droughts: as rainfall deficits dry out soil and vegetation, the evaporation of land water is reduced, then the local air becomes too dry to yield rainfall, which further enhances drought conditions. Importantly, this is not just a 'local' feedback, as remote regions may rely on evaporated water transported by winds from the drought-affected region. Following this rationale, droughts self-propagate and self-intensify.
However, a global capacity to observe these processes is lacking. Furthermore, climate and forecast models are immature when it comes to representing the influences of land on rainfall. Do climate models underestimate this land feedback? If so, future drought aggravation will be greater than currently expected. At the moment, this remains largely speculative, given the limited number of studies of these processes.
I propose to use novel in situ and satellite records of soil moisture, evaporation and precipitation, in combination with new mechanistic models that can map water vapour trajectories and explore multi-dimensional feedbacks. DRY-2-DRY will not only advance our fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms triggering droughts, it will also provide independent evidence of the extent to which managing land cover can help 'dampen' drought events, and enable progress towards more accurate short-term and long-term drought forecasts.
Max ERC Funding
1 465 000 €
Duration
Start date: 2017-02-01, End date: 2022-01-31
Project acronym EMIS
Project An Intense Summer Monsoon in a Cool World, Climate and East Asian Monsoon during Interglacials with a special emphasis on the Interglacials 500,000 years ago and before
Researcher (PI) André, Léon Berger
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN
Call Details Advanced Grant (AdG), PE10, ERC-2008-AdG
Summary Asian monsoon is a spectacular occurrence in the climate system. What make it so powerful are the combination of thermal contrast between the World s largest landmass (Eurasian continent) and ocean basin (the Indo-Pacific Ocean) and the presence of the World s largest ridge, the Tibetan Plateau. Climatologically, monsoon regions are the most convectively active areas and account for the majority of global atmospheric heat and moisture transport. Moreover, the economy, culture and rhythms of life of 60% of humanity are critically influenced by the evolution and variability of the Asian monsoon. The need to better understand the monsoon leads inevitably to the close inspection of its activity during the geological times to provide a long-term perspective from which any future change may be more effectively assessed. Our research proposal aims to understand the seeming paradox of the exceptionally intense East Asian summer monsoon (actually the strongest over the last one million years) which occurred during the relatively cool interglacial (MIS-13), 500,000 years ago. This will be done using first a model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM) to achieve a number of sensitivity experiments to the astronomical forcing, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets, the Tibetan Plateau and the Ocean. Ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models will then be used to confirm the main processes underlined by LOVECLIM, in particular those related to the wave train topographically induced by the Eurasian ice sheet, to the Tibetan Plateau, to the sea-surface temperature and to their role in reinforcing the East Asian summer monsoon. This monsoon of MIS-13 will be compared with the monsoon which occurred during the other interglacials of the upper Pleistocene and Holocene (about the last 700,000 years). All simulation results will be compared with the available proxy records, in particular-but not exclusively-those coming from the loess-soil sequences in China.
Summary
Asian monsoon is a spectacular occurrence in the climate system. What make it so powerful are the combination of thermal contrast between the World s largest landmass (Eurasian continent) and ocean basin (the Indo-Pacific Ocean) and the presence of the World s largest ridge, the Tibetan Plateau. Climatologically, monsoon regions are the most convectively active areas and account for the majority of global atmospheric heat and moisture transport. Moreover, the economy, culture and rhythms of life of 60% of humanity are critically influenced by the evolution and variability of the Asian monsoon. The need to better understand the monsoon leads inevitably to the close inspection of its activity during the geological times to provide a long-term perspective from which any future change may be more effectively assessed. Our research proposal aims to understand the seeming paradox of the exceptionally intense East Asian summer monsoon (actually the strongest over the last one million years) which occurred during the relatively cool interglacial (MIS-13), 500,000 years ago. This will be done using first a model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM) to achieve a number of sensitivity experiments to the astronomical forcing, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets, the Tibetan Plateau and the Ocean. Ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models will then be used to confirm the main processes underlined by LOVECLIM, in particular those related to the wave train topographically induced by the Eurasian ice sheet, to the Tibetan Plateau, to the sea-surface temperature and to their role in reinforcing the East Asian summer monsoon. This monsoon of MIS-13 will be compared with the monsoon which occurred during the other interglacials of the upper Pleistocene and Holocene (about the last 700,000 years). All simulation results will be compared with the available proxy records, in particular-but not exclusively-those coming from the loess-soil sequences in China.
Max ERC Funding
893 880 €
Duration
Start date: 2008-11-01, End date: 2013-10-31
Project acronym TRUE DEPTHS
Project deTeRmine the trUe dEpth of DeEp subduction from PiezobaromeTry on Host –inclusions Systems
Researcher (PI) Matteo ALVARO
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PAVIA
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), PE10, ERC-2016-STG
Summary Subduction of one tectonic plate below another is the primary cause of catastrophic geological events such as earthquakes and explosive volcanism that directly impact thousands of kilometers of coastal and mountain areas located on convergent margins. Real-time geophysical or seismic data only provide static snapshots of these subduction zones today. Therefore, quantitative understanding of the rates and true depths of subduction can only be achieved by determining the pressure-temperature-time-depth histories of Ultra-High-Pressure Metamorphic (UHPM) rocks that have been subducted to pressures greater than 3 GPa and subsequently exhumed. Conventional mineral thermo-barometry is severely challenged in UHPM terraines and thus the mechanisms attending the downwards transport of crustal material, and its return back to the Earth’s surface (exhumation), are still a matter of vigorous debate.
The TRUE DEPTHS project will develop X-ray diffraction analysis of the anisotropic elastic interactions of inclusion minerals trapped inside host minerals. I will develop non-linear elasticity theory to provide a method that will be uniquely able to determine whether significant deviatoric stresses are recorded by UHPM rocks. By applying this method to samples from carefully selected field areas, I will be able to determine if metamorphic phase equilibria represent the true depths of UHPM, in which case subduction to depths in excess of 90 km must occur. Alternatively, quantitative measurements of large deviatoric stresses could indicate that tectonic over-pressure can account for the observed phase equilibria, thus not requiring deep subduction. If overpressurized domains are present in tectonically thickened lithosphere, they may represent a driving force for stress release leading to earthquakes. The results will provide new constraints on earthquake triggering mechanisms and how the styles of subduction and its detailed mechanisms have evolved over Earth’s history.
Summary
Subduction of one tectonic plate below another is the primary cause of catastrophic geological events such as earthquakes and explosive volcanism that directly impact thousands of kilometers of coastal and mountain areas located on convergent margins. Real-time geophysical or seismic data only provide static snapshots of these subduction zones today. Therefore, quantitative understanding of the rates and true depths of subduction can only be achieved by determining the pressure-temperature-time-depth histories of Ultra-High-Pressure Metamorphic (UHPM) rocks that have been subducted to pressures greater than 3 GPa and subsequently exhumed. Conventional mineral thermo-barometry is severely challenged in UHPM terraines and thus the mechanisms attending the downwards transport of crustal material, and its return back to the Earth’s surface (exhumation), are still a matter of vigorous debate.
The TRUE DEPTHS project will develop X-ray diffraction analysis of the anisotropic elastic interactions of inclusion minerals trapped inside host minerals. I will develop non-linear elasticity theory to provide a method that will be uniquely able to determine whether significant deviatoric stresses are recorded by UHPM rocks. By applying this method to samples from carefully selected field areas, I will be able to determine if metamorphic phase equilibria represent the true depths of UHPM, in which case subduction to depths in excess of 90 km must occur. Alternatively, quantitative measurements of large deviatoric stresses could indicate that tectonic over-pressure can account for the observed phase equilibria, thus not requiring deep subduction. If overpressurized domains are present in tectonically thickened lithosphere, they may represent a driving force for stress release leading to earthquakes. The results will provide new constraints on earthquake triggering mechanisms and how the styles of subduction and its detailed mechanisms have evolved over Earth’s history.
Max ERC Funding
1 697 500 €
Duration
Start date: 2017-06-01, End date: 2022-05-31
Project acronym WeThaw
Project Mineral Weathering in Thawing Permafrost: Causes and Consequences
Researcher (PI) Sophie OPFERGELT
Host Institution (HI) UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN
Call Details Starting Grant (StG), PE10, ERC-2016-STG
Summary Enhanced thawing of the permafrost in response to warming of the Earth’s high latitude regions exposes previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial decomposition, liberating carbon to the atmosphere and creating a dangerous positive feedback on climate warming. Thawing the permafrost may also unlock a cascade of mineral weathering reactions. These will be accompanied by mineral nutrient release and generation of reactive surfaces which will influence plant growth, microbial SOC degradation and SOC stabilisation. Arguably, weathering is an important but hitherto neglected component for correctly assessing and predicting the permafrost carbon feedback. The goal of WeThaw is to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the mineral weathering response in permafrost regions subject to thawing. By addressing this crucial knowledge gap, WeThaw will significantly augment our capacity to develop models that can accurately predict the permafrost carbon feedback.
Specifically, I will provide the first estimate of the permafrost’s mineral element reservoir which is susceptible to rapidly respond to enhanced thawing, and I will assess the impact of thawing on the soil nutrient storage capacity. To determine the impact of increased mineral weathering on mineral nutrient availability in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in permafrost regions, the abiotic and biotic sources and processes controlling their uptake and release will be unraveled by combining novel geochemical techniques, involving the non-traditional silicon, magnesium and lithium stable isotopes, with soil mineral and physico-chemical characterisations. I posit that this groundbreaking approach has the potential to deliver unprecedented insights into mineral weathering dynamics in warming permafrost regions. This frontier research which crosses disciplinary boundaries is a mandatory step for being able to robustly explain the role of mineral weathering in modulating the permafrost carbon feedback.
Summary
Enhanced thawing of the permafrost in response to warming of the Earth’s high latitude regions exposes previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial decomposition, liberating carbon to the atmosphere and creating a dangerous positive feedback on climate warming. Thawing the permafrost may also unlock a cascade of mineral weathering reactions. These will be accompanied by mineral nutrient release and generation of reactive surfaces which will influence plant growth, microbial SOC degradation and SOC stabilisation. Arguably, weathering is an important but hitherto neglected component for correctly assessing and predicting the permafrost carbon feedback. The goal of WeThaw is to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the mineral weathering response in permafrost regions subject to thawing. By addressing this crucial knowledge gap, WeThaw will significantly augment our capacity to develop models that can accurately predict the permafrost carbon feedback.
Specifically, I will provide the first estimate of the permafrost’s mineral element reservoir which is susceptible to rapidly respond to enhanced thawing, and I will assess the impact of thawing on the soil nutrient storage capacity. To determine the impact of increased mineral weathering on mineral nutrient availability in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in permafrost regions, the abiotic and biotic sources and processes controlling their uptake and release will be unraveled by combining novel geochemical techniques, involving the non-traditional silicon, magnesium and lithium stable isotopes, with soil mineral and physico-chemical characterisations. I posit that this groundbreaking approach has the potential to deliver unprecedented insights into mineral weathering dynamics in warming permafrost regions. This frontier research which crosses disciplinary boundaries is a mandatory step for being able to robustly explain the role of mineral weathering in modulating the permafrost carbon feedback.
Max ERC Funding
1 999 985 €
Duration
Start date: 2017-09-01, End date: 2022-08-31
