ERC FUNDED PROJECTS

Aerosols (i.e. tiny particles suspended in the air) are regularly transported in huge amounts over long distances impacting air quality, health, weather and climate thousands of kilometers downwind of the source. Aerosols affect the atmospheric radiation budget through scattering and absorption of solar radiation and through their role as cloud/ice nuclei. In particular, light absorption by aerosol particles such as mineral dust and black carbon (BC; thought to be the second strongest contribution to current global warming after CO2) is of fundamental importance from a climate perspective because the presence of absorbing particles (1) contributes to solar radiative forcing, (2) heats absorbing aerosol layers, (3) can evaporate clouds and (4) change atmospheric dynamics. Considering this prominent role of aerosols, vertically-resolved in-situ data on absorbing aerosols are surprisingly scarce and aerosol-dynamic interactions are poorly understood in general. This is, as recognized in the last IPCC report, a serious barrier for taking the accuracy of climate models and predictions to the next level. To overcome this barrier, I propose to investigate aging, lifetime and dynamics of absorbing aerosol layers with a holistic end-to-end approach including laboratory studies, airborne field experiments and numerical model simulations. Building on the internationally recognized results of my aerosol research group and my long-term experience with airborne aerosol measurements, the time seems ripe to systematically bridge the gap between in-situ measurements of aerosol microphysical and optical properties and the assessment of dynamical interactions of absorbing particles with aerosol layer lifetime through model simulations. The outcomes of this project will provide fundamental new understanding of absorbing aerosol layers in the climate system and important information for addressing the benefits of BC emission controls for mitigating climate change.

1 987 980 €

Start date: 2015-10-01, End date: 2020-09-30

Advanced capitalist economies experience large and persistent movements in asset prices that are difficult to justify with economic fundamentals. The internet bubble of the 1990s and the real state market bubble of the 2000s are two recent examples. The predominant view is that these bubbles are a market failure, and are caused by some form of individual irrationality on the part of market participants. This project is based instead on the view that market participants are individually rational, although this does not preclude sometimes collectively sub-optimal outcomes. Bubbles are thus not a source of market failure by themselves but instead arise as a result of a pre-existing market failure, namely, the existence of pockets of dynamically inefficient investments. Under some conditions, bubbles partly solve this problem, increasing market efficiency and welfare. It is also possible however that bubbles do not solve the underlying problem and, in addition, create negative side-effects. The main objective of this project is to develop this view of asset bubbles, and produce an empirically-relevant macroeconomic framework that allows us to address the following questions: (i) What is the relationship between bubbles and financial market frictions? Special emphasis is given to how the globalization of financial markets and the development of new financial products affect the size and effects of bubbles. (ii) What is the relationship between bubbles, economic growth and unemployment? The theory suggests the presence of virtuous and vicious cycles, as economic growth creates the conditions for bubbles to pop up, while bubbles create incentives for economic growth to happen. (iii) What is the optimal policy to manage bubbles? We need to develop the tools that allow policy makers to sustain those bubbles that have positive effects and burst those that have negative effects.

1 000 000 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2015-03-31

The main objective of this research project is to contribute at bridging the gap between the two main branches of financial theory, namely corporate finance and asset pricing. It is motivated by the conviction that these two aspects of financial activity should and can be analyzed within a unified framework. This research will borrow from these two approaches in order to construct theoretical models that allow one to analyze the design and issuance of financial securities, as well as the dynamics of their valuations. Unlike asset pricing, which takes as given the price of the fundamentals, the goal is to derive security price processes from a precise description of firm’s operations and internal frictions. Regarding the latter, and in line with traditional corporate finance theory, the analysis will emphasize the role of agency costs within the firm for the design of its securities. But the analysis will be pushed one step further by studying the impact of these agency costs on key financial variables such as stock and bond prices, leverage, book-to-market ratios, default risk, or the holding of liquidities by firms. One of the contributions of this research project is to show how these variables are interrelated when firms and investors agree upon optimal financial arrangements. The final objective is to derive a rich set of testable asset pricing implications that would eventually be brought to the data.

1 000 000 €

Start date: 2008-11-01, End date: 2014-10-31

Clouds play a key role in the climate system. Small anthropogenic perturbations of the cloud system potentially have large radiative effects. Aerosols perturb the global radiation budget directly, by scattering and absorption, as well as indirectly, by the modification of cloud properties and occurrence. The applicability of traditional conceptual models of indirect aerosol effects to convective clouds is disputed as cloud dynamics complicates the picture. Strong evidence for numerous aerosol effects on convection has been established in individual disciplines: through remote sensing and in-situ observations as well as by cloud resolving and global modelling. However, a coherent scientific view of the effects of aerosols on convection has yet to be established. The primary objective of ACCLAIM is to recast the effects of aerosols on convective clouds as basis for improved global estimates of anthropogenic climate effects. Specific objectives include: i) to unravel the governing principles of aerosol effects on convective clouds; ii) provide quantitative constraints on satellite-retrieved relationships between convective clouds and aerosols; and ultimately iii) to enable global climate models to represent the full range of anthropogenic climate perturbations and quantify the climate response to aerosol effects on convective clouds. I have developed the research strategy of ACCLAIM to overcome disciplinary barriers in this frontier research area and seek five years of funding to establish an interdisciplinary, physics focused, research group consisting of two PostDocs, two PhD students and myself. ACCLAIM will be centred around global aerosol-convection climate modelling studies, complemented by research constraining aerosol-convection interactions through remote sensing and a process focused research strand, advancing fundamental understanding and global model parameterisations through high resolution aerosol-cloud modelling in synergy with in-situ observations.

1 429 243 €

Start date: 2011-09-01, End date: 2017-02-28

Formation of the Earth and the other terrestrial planets of our Solar System (Mercury, Venus and Mars) commenced 4.568 billion years ago and occurred on a time scale of about 100 million years. These planets grew by the process of accretion, which involved numerous collisions with smaller (Moon- to Mars-size) bodies. Impacts with such bodies released sufficient energy to cause large-scale melting and the formation of deep “magma oceans”. Such magma oceans enabled liquid metal to separate from liquid silicate, sink and accumulate to form the metallic cores of the planets. Thus core formation in terrestrial planets was a multistage process, intimately related to the major impacts during accretion, that determined the chemistry of planetary mantles. However, until now, accretion, as modelled by astrophysicists, and core formation, as modelled by geochemists, have been treated as completely independent processes. The fundamental and crucial aim of this ambitious interdisciplinary proposal is to integrate astrophysical models of planetary accretion with geochemical models of planetary differentiation together with cosmochemical constraints obtained from meteorites. The research will involve integrating new models of planetary accretion with core formation models based on the partitioning of a large number of elements between liquid metal and liquid silicate that we will determine experimentally at pressures up to about 100 gigapascals (equivalent to 2400 km deep in the Earth). By comparing our results with the known physical and chemical characteristics of the terrestrial planets, we will obtain a comprehensive understanding of how these planets formed, grew and evolved, both physically and chemically, with time. The integration of chemistry and planetary differentiation with accretion models is a new ground-breaking concept that will lead, through synergies and feedback, to major new advances in the Earth and planetary sciences.

1 826 200 €

Start date: 2012-05-01, End date: 2018-04-30

The rise of atmospheric O2 ~2,500 million years ago is one of the most profound transitions in Earth's history. Yet, despite its central role in shaping Earth's surface environment, the cause for the rise of O2 remains poorly understood. Tight coupling between the O2 cycle and the biogeochemical cycles of redox-active elements, such as C, Fe and S, implies radical changes in these cycles before, during and after the rise of O2. These changes, too, are incompletely understood, but have left valuable information encoded in the geological record. This information has been qualitatively interpreted, leaving many aspects of the rise of O2, including its causes and constraints on ocean chemistry before and after it, topics of ongoing research and debate. Here, I outline a research program to address this fundamental question in geochemical Earth systems evolution. The inherently interdisciplinary program uniquely integrates laboratory experiments, numerical models, geological observations, and geochemical analyses. Laboratory experiments and geological observations will constrain unknown parameters of the early biogeochemical cycles, and, in combination with field studies, will validate and refine the use of paleoenvironmental proxies. The insight gained will be used to develop detailed models of the coupled biogeochemical cycles, which will themselves be used to quantitatively understand the events surrounding the rise of O2, and to illuminate the dynamics of elemental cycles in the early oceans. This program is expected to yield novel, quantitative insight into these important events in Earth history and to have a major impact on our understanding of early ocean chemistry and the rise of O2. An ERC Starting Grant will enable me to use the excellent experimental and computational facilities at my disposal, to access the outstanding human resource at the Weizmann Institute of Science, and to address one of the major open questions in modern geochemistry.

1 472 690 €

Start date: 2013-09-01, End date: 2018-08-31

This proposal wishes to fundamentally improve our understanding of the role of tropical freshwater ecosystems in carbon (C) cycling on the catchment scale. It uses an unprecedented combination of state-of-the-art proxies such as stable isotope, 14C and biomarker signatures to characterize organic matter, radiogenic isotope signatures to determine particle residence times, as well as field measurements of relevant biogeochemical processes. We focus on tropical systems since there is a striking lack of data on such systems, even though riverine C transport is thought to be disproportionately high in tropical areas. Furthermore, the presence of landscape-scale contrasts in vegetation (in particular, C3 vs. C4 plants) are an important asset in the use of stable isotopes as natural tracers of C cycling processes on this scale. Freshwater ecosystems are an important component in the global C cycle, and the primary link between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Recent estimates indicate that ~2 Pg C y-1 (Pg=Petagram) enter freshwater systems, i.e., about twice the estimated global terrestrial C sink. More than half of this is thought to be remineralized before it reaches the coastal zone, and for the Amazon basin this has even been suggested to be ~90% of the lateral C inputs. The question how general these patterns are is a matter of debate, and assessing the mechanisms determining the degree of processing versus transport of organic carbon in lakes and river systems is critical to further constrain their role in the global C cycle. This proposal provides an interdisciplinary approach to describe and quantify catchment-scale C transport and cycling in tropical river basins. Besides conceptual and methodological advances, and a significant expansion of our dataset on C processes in such systems, new data gathered in this project are likely to provide exciting and novel hypotheses on the functioning of freshwater systems and their linkage to the terrestrial C budget.

1 745 262 €

Start date: 2009-10-01, End date: 2014-09-30

The scientific motivation of this project is the significant presence of organic compounds at the surface of the ocean. They form the link between ocean biogeochemistry through the physico-chemical processes near the water-air interface with primary and secondary aerosol formation and evolution in the air aloft and finally to the climate impact of marine boundary layer aerosols. However, their photochemistry and photosensitizer properties have only been suggested and discussed but never fully addressed because they were beyond reach. This project suggests going significantly beyond this matter of fact by a combination of innovative tools and the development of new ideas. This project is therefore devoted to new laboratory investigations of processes occurring at the air sea interface to predict emission, formation and evolution of halogenated radicals and aerosols from this vast interface between oceans and atmosphere. It progresses from fundamental laboratory measurements, marine science, surface chemistry, photochemistry … and is therefore interdisciplinary in nature. It will lead to the development of innovative techniques for characterising chemical processing at the air sea interface (e.g., a multiphase atmospheric simulation chamber, a time-resolved fluorescence technique for characterising chemical processing at the air-sea interface). It will allow the assessment of new emerging ideas such as a quantitative description of the importance of photosensitized reactions in the visible at the air/sea interface as a major source of halogenated radicals and aerosols in the marine environment. This new understanding will impact on our ability to describe atmospheric chemistry in the marine environment which has strong impact on the urban air quality of coastal regions (which by the way represent highly populated regions ) but also on climate change by providing new input for global climate models.

2 366 276 €

Start date: 2012-04-01, End date: 2017-03-31

In most European countries social insurance programs, like welfare, unemployment insurance and disability insurance are characterized by low reemployment rates. Therefore, governments spend huge amounts of money on active labour market programs, which should help individuals in finding work. Recent surveys indicate that programs which aim at intensifying job search behaviour are much more effective than schooling programs for improving human capital. A second conclusion from these surveys is that despite the size of the spendings on these programs, evidence on its effectiveness is limited. This research proposal aims at developing an economic framework that will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of popular programs like offering reemployment bonuses, fraud detection, workfare and job search monitoring. The main innovation is that I will combine economic theory with recently developed econometric techniques and detailed administrative data sets, which have not been explored before. While most of the literature only focuses on short-term outcomes, the available data allow me to also consider the long-term effectiveness of programs. The key advantage of an economic model is that I can compare the effectiveness of the different programs, consider modifications of programs and combinations of programs. Furthermore, using an economic model I can construct profiling measures to improve the targeting of programs to subsamples of the population. This is particularly relevant if the effectiveness of programs differs between individuals or depends on the moment in time the program is offered. Therefore, the results from this research will not only be of scientific interest, but will also be of great value to policymakers.

550 000 €

Start date: 2008-07-01, End date: 2013-06-30