ERC FUNDED PROJECTS

Some of the most extreme tests of physical law come from its manifestations in the behaviour of black holes and neutron stars, and as such these objects should be used as fundamental physics labs. Due to advances in both theoretical work and observational techniques, I have a major opportunity now to significantly push this agenda forward and get better answers to questions like: How are black holes born? How can energy be extracted from black holes? What is the origin of magnetic fields and cosmic rays in jets and shocks? Is their primary energy stream hadronic or magnetic? I propose to do this by exploiting the advent of wide-field radio astronomy: extreme objects are very rare and usually transient, so not only must one survey large areas of sky, but also must one do this often. I propose to form and shape a group that will use the LOFAR wide-field radio telescope to hunt for these extreme transients and systematically collect enough well-documented examples of the behaviour of each type of transient. Furthermore, I propose to expand LOFAR with a true 24/7 all-sky monitor to catch and study even the rarest of events. Next, I will use my experience in gamma-ray burst followup to conduct a vigorous multi-wavelength programme of study of these objects, to constrain their physics from as many angles as possible. This will eventually include results from multi-messenger astrophysics, in which we use neutrinos, gravity waves, and other non-electromagnetic messengers as extra diagnostics of the physics of these sources. Finally, I will build on my experience in modelling accretion phenomena and relativistic explosions to develop a theoretical framework for these phenomena and constrain the resulting models with the rich data sets we obtain.

3 499 128 €

Start date: 2010-10-01, End date: 2016-09-30

The proposed work concerns the theoretical and numerical development of robust and adaptive methodologies for broadband imaging in clutter. The word clutter expresses our uncertainty on the wave speed of the propagation medium. Our results are expected to have a strong impact in a wide range of applications, including underwater acoustics, exploration geophysics and ultrasound non-destructive testing. Our machinery is coherent interferometry (CINT), a state-of-the-art statistically stable imaging methodology, highly suitable for the development of imaging methods in clutter. We aim to extend CINT along two complementary directions: novel types of applications, and further mathematical and numerical development so as to assess and extend its range of applicability. CINT is designed for imaging with partially coherent array data recorded in richly scattering media. It uses statistical smoothing techniques to obtain results that are independent of the clutter realization. Quantifying the amount of smoothing needed is difficult, especially when there is no a priori knowledge about the propagation medium. We intend to address this question by coupling the imaging process with the estimation of the medium's large scale features. Our algorithms rely on the residual coherence in the data. When the coherent signal is too weak, the CINT results are unsatisfactory. We propose two ways for enhancing the resolution of CINT: filter the data prior to imaging (noise reduction) and waveform design (optimize the source distribution). Finally, we propose to extend the applicability of our imaging-in-clutter methodologies by investigating the possibility of utilizing ambient noise sources to perform passive sensor imaging, as well as by studying the imaging problem in random waveguides.

690 000 €

Start date: 2010-06-01, End date: 2015-11-30

This proposal wishes to fundamentally improve our understanding of the role of tropical freshwater ecosystems in carbon (C) cycling on the catchment scale. It uses an unprecedented combination of state-of-the-art proxies such as stable isotope, 14C and biomarker signatures to characterize organic matter, radiogenic isotope signatures to determine particle residence times, as well as field measurements of relevant biogeochemical processes. We focus on tropical systems since there is a striking lack of data on such systems, even though riverine C transport is thought to be disproportionately high in tropical areas. Furthermore, the presence of landscape-scale contrasts in vegetation (in particular, C3 vs. C4 plants) are an important asset in the use of stable isotopes as natural tracers of C cycling processes on this scale. Freshwater ecosystems are an important component in the global C cycle, and the primary link between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Recent estimates indicate that ~2 Pg C y-1 (Pg=Petagram) enter freshwater systems, i.e., about twice the estimated global terrestrial C sink. More than half of this is thought to be remineralized before it reaches the coastal zone, and for the Amazon basin this has even been suggested to be ~90% of the lateral C inputs. The question how general these patterns are is a matter of debate, and assessing the mechanisms determining the degree of processing versus transport of organic carbon in lakes and river systems is critical to further constrain their role in the global C cycle. This proposal provides an interdisciplinary approach to describe and quantify catchment-scale C transport and cycling in tropical river basins. Besides conceptual and methodological advances, and a significant expansion of our dataset on C processes in such systems, new data gathered in this project are likely to provide exciting and novel hypotheses on the functioning of freshwater systems and their linkage to the terrestrial C budget.

1 745 262 €

Start date: 2009-10-01, End date: 2014-09-30

This project has the potential to radically change current understanding of cultic and social transformation in the post-exilic temple community of Jerusalem (c. 6th-4th centuries BCE), an important formative phase of ancient Judaism. “BABYLON” draws on recent, ground-breaking advances in the study of cuneiform texts to illuminate the Babylonian environment of the Judean exile, the socio-historical context which gave rise to the transformative era in Second Temple Judaism. In particular, these new data show that the parallels between Babylonian and post-exilic forms of cultic and social organization were substantially more far-reaching than presently recognized in Biblical scholarship. “BABYLON” will study the extent of these similarities and explore the question how Babylonian models could have influenced the restoration effort in Jerusalem. This goal will be achieved through four sub-projects. P1 will study the social dynamics and intellectual universe of the Babylonian priesthood. P2 will finalize the publication of cuneiform archives of Babylonian priests living in the time of the exile. P3 will identify the exact areas of change in the post-exilic temple community of Jerusalem. P4, the synthesis, will draw from each of these sub-projects to present a comparative study of the Second Temple and contemporary Babylonian models of cultic and social organization, and to propose a strategy of research into the possible routes of transmission between Babylonia and Jerusalem. The research will be carried out by three team members: the PI (P1 and P4), a PhD in Assyriology (P2) and a post-doctoral researcher in Biblical Studies specialized in the Second Temple period (P3 and P4). The participation of the wider academic community will be invited at two moments in the course of the project, in the form of a workshop and an international conference. “BABYLON” will adopt an interdisciplinary approach by bringing together Assyriologists and Biblical scholars for a much-needed dialogue, thereby exploding the artificial boundaries that currently exist in the academic landscape between these two fields.

1 200 000 €

Start date: 2009-09-01, End date: 2015-08-31

This project studies how beauty standards - perceptions of physical beauty in women and men - are socially shaped. It will focus on the transnational modelling industry, an institution centrally concerned with the production and dissemination of beauty standards. The project aims to develop a comparative sociology of beauty. By comparing beauty standards both within and across nations, it will identify central mechanisms and institutions through which such standards are developed and disseminated. In 4 subprojects this study investigates 1. How standards of female and male beauty are perceived, shaped, and disseminated by professionals in the transnational modelling field; 2. How female and male models perceive, represent and embody beauty standards in their work; 3. How female and male beauty has been portrayed by models in mainstream and high fashion magazines from 1980 till 2010; 4. How people of different backgrounds perceive female and male beauty, and how their beauty standards are related to the images disseminated in modelling. Each project will be done in France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey and the UK. This project is innovative in several ways. It is the first comprehensive study of the social shaping of beauty standards. The 4 subprojects will result in an extensive account of production, products, and reception of a contested cultural industry. Moreover, this project draws together in novel ways theories about media, cultural production and taste formation; gender and the body; and globalization. The project will make a major contribution to the study of globalization: it studies a transnational cultural industry, and its comparative and longitudinal design allows us to gauge the impact of globalization in different contexts. Finally, the project is innovative in its comparative, multi-method research design, in which the subprojects will follow the entire process of production and consumption in a transnational field.

1 202 611 €

Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2015-08-31

The aim of the proposed project is to shed light on early childhood gender-differentiated socialization and gender-specific susceptibility to parenting within families in relation to disruptive behaviour in boys and girls in the first four years of life. The popular saying boys will be boys refers to the observation that boys show more disruptive behaviours (e.g., noncompliance or aggression) than girls, a pattern that has been confirmed frequently in scientific research. There is also evidence that parents treat boys differently from girls in ways that are likely to foster boys disruptive behaviour, and that boys are more susceptible to problematic family functioning than girls. The crucial question is whether gender differences in socialization, susceptibility to socialization, and children s behavioural outcomes are also salient when the same parents are doing the parenting of both a boy and a girl. Within-family comparisons are necessary to account for structural differences between families. To this end, families with two children born 22-26 months apart will be recruited from the general population. To account for birth order and gender-combination effects, the sample includes four groups of 150 families each, with the following sibling combinations: girl-boy, boy-girl, girl-girl, and boy-boy. The study has a four-wave longitudinal design, based on the youngest sibling with assessments at ages 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, because gender differences in disruptive behaviour develop during the toddler years. Each assessment consists of two home visits: one with mother and one with father, including observations of both children and of the children separately. Parenting behaviours will be studied in reaction to specific child behaviours, including aggression, noncompliance, and prosocial behaviours.

1 611 970 €

Start date: 2010-02-01, End date: 2015-03-31

China s economy has expanded at breakneck speed to become the 3rd largest trading country in the world and the largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). Entry into the WTO in 2001 was a landmark event in this ongoing process and I propose to study several channels through which it spurred China s industrial development. Crucially, I will take an integrated view of the different ways in which Chinese and Western firms interact: through trade flows, as suppliers or competitors, FDI, or knowledge transfers. First, I investigate the existence and magnitude of a causal link from the trade reforms to productivity growth. Second, I look for evidence of capability upgrading, such as increased production efficiency, an ability to produce higher quality products, or introduce new products by innovating. Third, I study the mechanisms for the impact of trade and FDI on local firms, in particular assessing the relative importance of increased market competition and the transfer of know-how from foreign firms. For this analysis, I draw heavily on a unique data set. Information on the universe of Chinese manufacturing firms is being linked to the universe of Chinese trade transactions. These are unique research tools on their own, but as a linked data set, the only comparable one in the world is for the U.S. economy. The Chinese data has the advantage to contain detailed information on FDI, distinguishes between ordinary and processing trade, and contains information on innovation, such as R&D and sales of new goods. Answering the above questions is important for other developing countries wanting to learn from China s experience and for Western firms assessing how quickly Chinese firms will become viable suppliers of sophisticated inputs or direct competitors. By estimating models that are explicitly derived from new theories, I advance the literature at the interaction of international and development economics, industrial organization, economic geography.

944 940 €

Start date: 2010-02-01, End date: 2016-01-31

Diffusive shock acceleration is widely acknowledged as the most likely source of cosmic rays and high energy particles. The basic macroscopic theory of how cosmic rays gain energy during multiple shock crossings is well known, but the microphysics of the interaction between cosmic rays (CR) and the MHD background fluid remained poorly understood before the recent discovery of a new non-resonant instability by which the CR precursor could greatly amplify the ambient magnetic field. The aims of the project are: 1) to develop the first self-consistent non-linear simulation of the CR/MHD interaction; to calculate the magnitude of the saturated magnetic field and the maximum energy to which CR are accelerated. We will characterise the structure of the amplified magnetic field and compare it with x-ray observations of the time-evolving outer shock of supernova remnants (SNR). We will investigate the effect of various orientations of the shock relative to the ambient magnetic field, the effect of non-diffusive transport on the energy spectrum and CR escape from the SNR, and how these match observation. 2) to extend the simulation to relativistic shocks as found in gamma-ray bursts (GRB) and active galactic nuclei (AGN); to establish whether the non-resonant instability operates effectively at relativistic shock velocities, whether it explains the large magnetic field found in GRB, and determine the maximum CR energy achieved by relativistic shocks. 3) to investigate high density shocks in GRB, x-ray flashes (XRF) and supernovae (SN) where radiative processes, pair production and other particle/photon and particle/particle interactions are important. We shall investigate CR acceleration on SN shock breakout and very young SNR as a possible source of very high energy CR.

900 024 €

Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2015-04-30

Our Universe appears to be filled with mysterious ingredients: 25 per cent appears to be dark matter, perhaps an as-yet undiscovered particle, and 70 per cent seems to be a bizarre fluid, dubbed dark energy, for which there is no satisfactory theory. Solving the dark energy problem is the most pressing question in cosmology today. It is possible that dark energy does not exist at all, and instead Einstein s theory of General Relativity is flawed. Cosmologists hope to measure the properties of the dark energy using the next generation of cosmological observations, in which I am playing a leading role. I believe the most promising technique to crack the dark energy problem is gravitational shear, in which images of distant galaxies are distorted as they pass through the intervening dark matter distribution. Analysis of the distortions allows a map of the dark matter to be reconstructed; by examining the dark matter distribution we uncover the nature of the apparent dark energy. However to capitalize on the great potential of gravitational shear we must measure incredibly small image distortions in the presence of much larger image modifications that occur in the measurement process. I am proposing a fresh look at this problem using an inter-disciplinary approach in collaboration with computer scientists. This grant would enable my team to play a central role in the key results from the upcoming Dark Energy Survey. We would further capitalize on the gravitational shear signal by moving away from the current dark energy bandwagon by instead focusing on testing General Relativity using novel approaches. Our work will produce results which will lead the next Einstein to solve the biggest puzzle in cosmology, and arguably physics.

1 400 000 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2016-03-31

The collective behavior of quantum and classical many body systems such as ultracold atomic gases, nanowires, cuprates and micromagnets are currently subject of an intense experimental and theoretical research worldwide. Understanding the fascinating phenomena of Bose-Einstein condensation, Luttinger liquid vs non-Luttinger liquid behavior, high temperature superconductivity, and spontaneous formation of periodic patterns in magnetic systems, is an exciting challenge for theoreticians. Most of these phenomena are still far from being fully understood, even from a heuristic point of view. Unveiling the exotic properties of such systems by rigorous mathematical analysis is an important and difficult challenge for mathematical physics. In the last two decades, substantial progress has been made on various aspects of many-body theory, including Fermi liquids, Luttinger liquids, perturbed Ising models at criticality, bosonization, trapped Bose gases and spontaneous formation of periodic patterns. The techniques successfully employed in this field are diverse, and range from constructive renormalization group to functional variational estimates. In this research project we propose to investigate a number of statistical mechanics models by a combination of different mathematical methods. The objective is, on the one hand, to understand crossover phenomena, phase transitions and low-temperature states with broken symmetry, which are of interest in the theory of condensed matter and that we believe to be accessible to the currently available methods; on the other, to develop new techiques combining different and complementary methods, such as multiscale analysis and localization bounds, or reflection positivity and cluster expansion, which may be useful to further progress on important open problems, such as Bose-Einstein condensation, conformal invariance in non-integrable models, existence of magnetic or superconducting long range order.

650 000 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2014-12-31

The research program concerns various theoretic aspects of hyperbolic conservation laws. In first place we plan to study the existence and uniqueness of solutions to systems of equations of mathematical physics with physic viscosity. This is one of the main open problems within the theory of conservation laws in one space dimension, which cannot be tackled relying on the techniques developed in the case where the viscosity matrix is the identity. Furthermore, this represents a first step toward the analysis of more complex relaxation and kinetic models with a finite number of velocities as for Broadwell equation, or with a continuous distribution of velocities as for Boltzmann equation. A second research topic concerns the study of conservation laws with large data. Even in this case the basic model is provided by fluidodynamic equations. We wish to extend the results of existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence of solutions to the case of large (in BV or in L^infty) data, at least for the simplest systems of mathematical physics such as the isentropic gas dynamics. A third research topic that we wish to pursue concerns the analysis of fine properties of solutions to conservation laws. Many of such properties depend on the existence of one or more entropies of the system. In particular, we have in mind to study the regularity and the concentration of the dissipativity measure for an entropic solution of a system of conservation laws. Finally, we wish to continue the study of hyperbolic equations from the control theory point of view along two directions: (i) the analysis of controllability and asymptotic stabilizability properties; (ii) the study of optimal control problems related to hyperbolic systems.

422 000 €

Start date: 2009-11-01, End date: 2013-10-31

Proposal summary: The present project will investigate the main principles of development and neuroplasticity in humans in the domain of multisensory processes (the interplay between sensory systems). It will be tested how learning plasticity of the human brain changes from childhood to adulthood and how early experience constraints neuroplasticity at later developmental stages as well as in adults. The project is based upon animal findings in sensory development and plasticity. Both a prospective (studies in children) and a retrospective (studies in people with a history of visual or auditory deprivation) approach are employed. Behavioural paradigms from experimental psychology addressing multisensory processes are combined with electroencephalographic recordings (EEG). First, we investigate the functional principles and neural correlates of multisensory development. Second, we investigate multisensory processes in people who suffered from a transient phase of sensory deprivation after birth: (a) in people who were born with bilateral dense cataracts that were removed later, and (b) in congenitally deaf individuals, who were equipped with a cochlear implant to restore hearing. This line of research will reveal the critical contribution of single sensory systems as well as the synchronized input across modalities with regard to the emergence of successful multisensory binding. Third, we will investigate whether it is possible to alleviate neural changes demarcating the end of sensitive phases or critical periods by implementing an incremental training procedure. Last, we will look at whether experimentally induced transient sensory deprivation increases neuroplasticity loss during a sensitive phase or critical period. We are convinced that basic research, such as the present, will reveal important principles of development and neuroplasticity which will be useful in applied setting to improve education, the rehabilitation of individuals with sensory defects and the treatment of developmental disorders.

2 396 640 €

Start date: 2010-12-01, End date: 2016-11-30

An intense debate is raging within evolutionary anthropology as to whether the evolution of human behaviour is driven by selection pressure on the individual or on the group. Until recently there was consensus amongst evolutionary biologists and evolutionary anthropologists that natural selection caused behaviours to evolve that benefit the individual or close kin. However the idea that cultural behaviours that favour the group can evolve, even at the expense of individual well-being, is now being supported by some evolutionary anthropologists and economists. Models of cultural group selection rely on patterns of cultural transmission that maintain differences between cultural groups, because either decisions are based on what most others in the group do, or non-conformists are punished in some way. If such biased transmission occurs, then humans may be following a unique evolutionary trajectory towards extreme sociality; such models potentially explain behaviours such as altruism towards non-relatives or limiting your reproductive rate. However, relevant empirical evidence from real world populations, concerning behaviour that potentially influences reproductive success, is almost entirely lacking. The projects proposed here are designed to help fill that gap. In micro-evolutionary studies we will seek evidence for the patterns cultural transmission or social learning that enable cultural group selection to act, and ask how these processes depend on properties of the community, and thus how robust are they to the demographic and societal changes that accompany modernisation. These include studies of the spread of modern contraception through communities; and studies of punishment of selfish players in economic games. In macro-evolutionary studies, we will use phylogenetic cross-cultural comparative methods to show how different cultural traits change over the long term, and ask whether social or ecological variables are driving that cultural change.

1 801 978 €

Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2016-04-30

The main objective of this project is to research the economic implications of default and collateral in financial markets. It is motivated from the observation that much of the lending in modern economies is secured by some form of collateral and by the empirical fact that modern economies experience a substantial amount of default and bankruptcy. From a theoretical perspective, the research aims to explore new ways of modelling default and collateral and employ them to evaluate the impact of default and collateral on market outcomes. From a policy recommendation perspective, the research aims to develop models with testable implications that can be used by practitioners to discuss the consequences of a wide range of policies. In particular, to explore which kind of regulation procedures should be implemented in order to lower the risk of default and at the same time not to reduce too much risk-sharing. The agenda includes two research directions. The first research direction will focus on the implications of default and collateral in economies with bounded rational agents. Our aim is to understand how default and collateral affect market outcomes in environments where agents are allowed to have very divergent and therefore possibly incorrect beliefs about endogenous economic variables like future prices and delivery rates. The second research direction will focus on the implications of default and collateral in economies with an open ended horizon. Our aim is to investigate endogenous debt constraints that are compatible with equilibrium and simultaneously allow for as much risk sharing as possible.

156 538 €

Start date: 2010-06-01, End date: 2012-06-30

The proposal is for work in Geometric Analysis aimed at two different problems. One is to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of extremal metrics on complex algebraic manifolds. These metrics are characterised by conditions on their curvature tensor a paradigm being the Riemannian version of the Einstein equation of General Relativity The standard conjecture is that the right condition should be the stability of the manifold, a condition defined entirely in the language of algebraic geometry. But there are very few cases where this conjecture has been verified. The problem comes down to proving the existence of a solution to highly nonlinear partial differential equation. The aim is to advance this theory by a detailed study of interesting but more amenable cases, for example where there is a large symmetry group. The second problem is to develop new invariants and structures associated to a particular class of manifolds of dimension 6 and 7 (with holonomy SU(3) and G2). These would be derived from the solutions of versions of the Yang-Mills equation over the manifolds, in a similar manner to familiar theories in 3 and 4 dimensions. In higher dimensions there are fundamental new difficulties to overcome to set up a theory rigorously and the main point of this part of the proposal is to attack these. It is likely that the new structures, if they do exist, will have interesting connections to other developments in this general area, involving string theory and algebraic geometry.

1 501 361 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2015-03-31

We plan to construct a theoretical bridge between classical dynamic allocation models used in Operations Research/Management Science, and between the modern theory of mechanism design. Our theoretical results will generate insights for the construction of applied pricing schemes and testable implications about the pattern of observed prices. The Economics literature has focused on information and incentive issues in static models, whereas the Operations Research/Management Science literature has looked at dynamic models that were often lacking strategic/ informational aspects. There is an increased recent interest in combining these bodies of knowledge, spurred by studies of yield management, and of decentralized platforms for interaction/ communication among agents. A general mechanism design analysis starts with the characterization of all dynamically implementable allocation policies. Variational arguments can be used then to characterize optimal policies. The research will focus on models with multidimensional incomplete information, such as: 1) Add incomplete information to the dynamic & stochastic knapsack problem; 2) Allow for strategic purchase time in dynamic pricing models; 3)Allow for competing mechanism designers. The ensuing control problems are often not standard and require special tools. An additional attack line will be devoted to models that combine design with learning about the environment. The information revealed by an agent affects then both the value of the current allocation, and the option value of future allocations. We plan to: 1) Derive the properties of learning processes that allow efficient, dynamic implementation; 2) Characterize second-best mechanism in cases where adaptive learning and efficiency are not compatible with each other.

1 123 200 €

Start date: 2010-05-01, End date: 2016-04-30

In our project we address several fundamental questions regarding ergodic-theoretical properties of actions of large groups. The problems that we plan to tackle are not only of central importance in the abstract theory of dynamical systems, but they also lead to solutions of a number of open questions in Diophantine geometry such as the Batyrev--Manin and Peyre conjectures on the asymptotics and the distribution of rational points on algebraic varieties, a generalisation of the Oppenheim conjecture on distribution of values of polynomial functions, a generalisation of Khinchin and Dirichlet theorems on Diophantine approximation in the setting of homogeneous varieties, and estimates on the number of integral points (with almost prime coordinates satisfying polynomial and congruence equations. The proposed research is expected to imply profound connections between diverse areas of mathematics simultaneously enriching each of them. For instance, we expect to establish a precise relation between the generalised Ramanujan conjecture in the theory of automorphic forms and the order of Diophantine approximation on algebraic varieties. We also plan to use our results on counting lattice points to derive estimates on multiplicities of automorphic representations and prove results in direction of Sarnak's density hypothesis. We investigate the problem of distribution of orbits, raised by Arnold and Krylov in sixties, the problem of multiple recurrence, pioneered by Furstenberg in seventies, and the problem of rigidity of group actions, formulated by Zimmer in eighties. We plan to compute the asymptotic distribution of orbits for actions on general homogeneous spaces, to establish multiple recurrence for large classes of actions of nonamenable groups, to prove isomorphism and factor rigidity of homogeneous actions and rigidity of actions under perturbations.

630 000 €

Start date: 2010-02-01, End date: 2016-01-31

A recent psychological and experimental literature on human behavior suggests that standard preferences assumed in economic models are inadequate to explain human choice behaviors in numerous environments. The primary objective of this project is to establish evolutionary foundations for non-standard preferences. Most models in economics take preferences as given and derive the choices induced by these preferences. We intend to do just the opposite. We characterize the choice behavior that would survive evolution and then represent this choice behavior with preferences. That is, we identify the preferences that induce evolutionarily stable choice behavior. We identify each choice behavior with a gene. Hence, the choices an individual makes during her lifetime are determined by her genes, where these are inherited from her parents. A population can be defined as a group of individuals having the same genes. Populations with different genes may grow at different rates. Only those genes that induce the highest possible population growth rate given the physical environment survive evolution. We wish to apply the principle described above to derive implications for time preferences, preference for similarities, preferences for discrimination, preferences for conformity, and other important socio-economic behaviors. The goal of the project is to provide a theoretical guidance for which preferences are admissible and which are not likely to arise.

600 000 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2015-12-31

Combinatorics forms a challenging and fundamental part of pure mathematics, but is in the happy position of being relatively accessible to a wider audience. One of its most exciting and rapidly developing branches is Extremal Combinatorics, which has a wide range of direct applications both to other areas of mathematics and other academic disciplines. Thus it makes its influence felt indirectly when the theoretical power it brings to these disciplines is in turn used for more practical applications. The proposed project addresses a range of important problems at the frontier of Extremal Combinatorics, principally those motivated by a question of Turan, an open problem that mathematicians have battled with for over sixty years, which has led to many developments in the theory of graphs and hypergraphs. Recently there has been a lot of progress in this area, so it is an exciting topic for future research. The PI has identified some key intermediate goals to pursue for this first objective, and also for a second objective involving various ways to extend the scope of this area, including a rainbow variant that has impressive potential applications in additive number theory. A third area being studied is the theory of set systems with restricted intersections, which has a rich history in combinatorics, and has also found applications to computer science, particular in the theories of complexity and communication. It is also closely connected to the concepts of trace and VC-dimension, which play a central role in many areas of statistics, discrete and computational geometry and learning theory. The PI will co-ordinate a research team of two postdocs and one doctoral student with clearly defined goals that will bring this project to fruition over a five-year period.

780 000 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2015-12-31

DSGE models are the standard tool of quantitative macroeconomics. We use them to measure economics phenomena and to provide policy advice. However, since Kydland and Prescott s 1982, the profession has fought about how to take these models to the data. Kydland and Prescott proposed to calibrate their model. Why? Macroeconomists could not compute their models efficiently. Moreover, the techniques required for estimating DSGE models using the likelihood did not exist. Finally, models were ranked very badly by likelihood ratio tests. Calibration offered a temporary solution. By focusing only on a very limited set of moments of the model, researchers could claim partial success and keep developing their theory. The landscape changed in the 1990s. There were developments along three fronts. First, macroeconomists learned how to efficiently compute equilibrium models with rich dynamics. Second, statisticians developed simulation techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which we require to estimate DSGE models. Third, and perhaps most important, computer power has become so cheap that we can now do things that were unthinkable 20 years ago. This proposal tries to estimate non-linear and/or non-normal DSGE models using a likelihood approach. Why non-linear models? Previous research has proved that second order approximation errors in the policy function have first order effects on the likelihood function. Why non-normal models? Time-varying volatility is key to understanding the Great Moderation. Kim and Nelson (1999), McConnell and Pérez-Quirós (2000), and Stock and Watson (2002) have documented a decline in the variance of output growth since the mid 1980s. Only DSGE models with richer structure than normal innovations can account for this.

909 942 €

Start date: 2010-07-01, End date: 2015-06-30

Never before has media entertainment been so abundantly accessible to children. In this project, I propose an entirely new theoretical model to understand entertainment processing and effects. The model enables us to simultaneously investigate: (a) how and why certain types of media entertainment may influence certain children, (b) which children are particularly susceptible to positive, which to negative, and which to both positive and negative entertainment effects, and (c) how children s social environment can maximize positive and minimize negative entertainment effects on children. The project involves a longitudinal panel study among 900 Dutch families. To measure the variables in the model, we will use some well-established survey instruments and neuropsychological tests. We will also employ two less conventional methods (coded media-use diaries and experience sampling methods) that may enhance serendipity in the development of our theory-advancing insights. We will use state-of-the art data-analytic techniques (e.g., multi-level and latent-growth curve modelling) to analyse the data. Although adventurous, this transdisciplinary project, the first in its kind, has great theoretical significance. If the assumptions of my model are supported, it may lead to a fundamental re-evaluation of earlier media-effects theories and research on children. The project will also have tremendous social relevance, not only for parents, but also for programme makers, educators, and the society as a whole. After all, only if we truly understand why, how, and which children are influenced by certain types of media entertainment, are we able to adequately target prevention and intervention strategies at these children.

2 500 000 €

Start date: 2010-12-01, End date: 2016-08-31

The advent of the Internet and the increased power of modern day computing have dramatically changed the economic landscape. Billions of dollars worth of goods are being auctioned among geographically dispersed buyers; online brokerages are used to find jobs, trade stocks, make travel arrangements, etc. The architecture of these online (trading) platforms is typically rooted in their pre-Internet counterparts, and advances in the theory of market design combined with increased computing capabilities prompt a careful re-evaluation. This proposal concerns the creation of novel, more flexible institutions using an approach that combines theory, laboratory experiments, and practical policy. The first project enhances our understanding of newly designed package auctions by developing equilibrium models of competitive bidding and measuring the efficacy of alternative formats in controlled experiments. The next project studies novel market forms that allow for all-or-nothing trades to alleviate inefficiencies and enhance dynamic stability when complementarities exist. The third project concerns the design of market regulation and procurement contests to create better incentives for research and development. The fourth project addresses information aggregation properties of alternative voting institutions, suggesting improvements for referenda and jury/committee voting. The Internet has also dramatically altered the nature of social interactions. Emerging institutions such as online social networking tools, rating systems, and web-community Q&A services reduce social distances and catalyze opportunities for social learning. The final project focuses on social learning in a variety of settings and on the impact of social networks on behavior. Combined these projects generate insights that apply to a broad array of social and economic environments and that will guide practitioners to the use of better designed institutions.

1 797 525 €

Start date: 2010-01-01, End date: 2015-12-31

The aim of this project is to map and publish in a critical edition the extensive correspondence of European intellectuals with the Swiss cultural historian Jacob Burckhardt over a period of more than half a century, from 1842 to 1897. This correspondence documents a crucial period in European history and culture, one which witnessed the emergence of art history as a separate discipline; serious political conflict in France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland; the birth of the nation-states of Italy and Germany; debate on the meaning and consequences of democracy as a system of government; and the rise of Caesarism in France. The effects of modernism are also discussed in this correspondence, from the culture of museums, art exhibitions and the first universal expositions (e.g., the Expositions Universelles in Paris) to the clash between industrial culture and neo-humanist ideals of education. The large body of correspondence received by Jacob Burckhardt (about two thousand letters conserved in various libraries and private archives) provides a cultural map of this crucial phase in the development of a new European identity.

1 215 600 €

Start date: 2010-06-01, End date: 2015-05-31

Volcanism, is a vital factor in the Earth system. Molten silicates are a major transport agent in the differentiation and interaction of lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. Further, the immediate consequences of volcanic eruptions on all scales - local, regional and global - are issues of direct practical relevance to mankind as they are measured in lives, infrastructure and the environment. Volcanism is the result of a complex interplay of physico-chemical processes operating at varying efficiencies during ascent, differentiation and eruption of magma. As a result, volcanic phenomena span a range from effusive to explosive. The largest explosive events are repeatedly responsible for global impact on the Earth System, yet it is precisely these events that, due to their explosive character, are relatively inaccessible for direct scientific investigation. A major opportunity in accessing such systems has been provided by recent technological advances permitting the experimental investigation of volcanism. Experimental volcanology operates directly under volcanic conditions of time, pressure, temperature, and state; a near-unique opportunity in the solid earth sciences. Based on experimental volcanology, this project aims to provide mechanistic models of magmatic/volcanic processes and their impact on the Earth System. Four priority areas are selected as those needing most urgent attention. These are: 1) Quantification of the rheology of magma/lava for parameterisation of stress-strain relationships in numerical simulations of eruptive events. 2) Mechanistic understanding explosive failure of magma for the interpretation of volcanic hazard monitoring. 3) Development of quantitative methods for inferring eruptive physics from the physico-chemical fossil records (thermal, magnetic, chemical) preserved in volcanic lavas. 4) Experimental characterisation of the physical, chemical and biological properties and impact of volcanic ash on the earth system.

2 991 058 €

Start date: 2010-04-01, End date: 2017-07-31